Regional stability: Former diplomat advocates shift in Afghan policy
Calls for formulating a clear narrative on Taliban and relations with Afghan govt.
Calls for formulating a clear narrative on Taliban and relations with Afghan govt. PHOTO: FILE
ISLAMABAD:
A former foreign minister has called for a paradigm shift in policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan. A stable Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s interest, former Foreign Minister Riaz Mohammad Khan said, according to a press release.
“The situation in Afghanistan and the possible consequence is like looking into a clouded crystal ball,” he said while giving a talk on “Afghanistan Beyond 2014” at the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI) under its distinguished lecture series the other day.
The future of Afghanistan is highly uncertain; the war-torn country is fragmented due to ethnic differences as well as warlordism. The control of the Afghan government is ineffective, flawed with corruption and its influence is limited to Kabul alone, Khan said.
The warlords have been loosely aligned with the Afghan government. Today, the country faces immense challenges that are highly complex and multi-faceted as the US has failed to secure even limited goals.
The seasoned diplomat said that within the domestic sphere in the US there was war fatigue and little appetite to engage further in Afghanistan. Even if the US succeeds in signing the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the Afghans, the objectives would be limited as to what the US has not achieved with over 100,000 troops they will certainly not achieve with 10,000.
About the BSA, he said many political factions inside Afghanistan were in favour of signing it despite Karzai’s dilemma.
Khan said Karzai was preoccupied by the legacy he would leave behind, and he sees a political life for himself if he defies the US.
Khan said Pakistan has been sucked into the Afghan conflict over the past 30 years and has, in fact, become a conflict zone itself. He said 30 years was long enough for nations to learn lessons, however Pakistan had still not learnt lesson from Afghanistan.
Pakistan, with its domestic challenges and compulsions will suffer a heavy blow if policies are not changed.
While referring to the Taliban, he was of the view that the group is not in a position to stage a comeback as they did in 1996, as they lack the mobility they once had.
He said two possible scenarios are envisioned in Afghanistan, both pertaining to possible presence and exit of US residual forces. Both scenarios have their pros and cons. He said that if the US were able to maintain a residual force, this would naturally increase regional rivalries and justify the Afghan Taliban’s jihad.
However at the same time a complete US withdrawal and a ‘Zero’ option would increase the risk in violence and would also dry up any funds for Afghan institutions including the Afghan army. Subsequently it would quell and eventually put an end to the insurgency.
Any escalation in the Afghan conflict will have adverse fallout on Pakistan in the form of increasing militancy, incoming refugees, drugs, the diplomat said, stressing the need for formulating a clear narrative on Taliban and relations with the Afghan government.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 1st, 2014.
A former foreign minister has called for a paradigm shift in policy vis-a-vis Afghanistan. A stable Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s interest, former Foreign Minister Riaz Mohammad Khan said, according to a press release.
“The situation in Afghanistan and the possible consequence is like looking into a clouded crystal ball,” he said while giving a talk on “Afghanistan Beyond 2014” at the Institute of Strategic Studies (ISSI) under its distinguished lecture series the other day.
The future of Afghanistan is highly uncertain; the war-torn country is fragmented due to ethnic differences as well as warlordism. The control of the Afghan government is ineffective, flawed with corruption and its influence is limited to Kabul alone, Khan said.
The warlords have been loosely aligned with the Afghan government. Today, the country faces immense challenges that are highly complex and multi-faceted as the US has failed to secure even limited goals.
The seasoned diplomat said that within the domestic sphere in the US there was war fatigue and little appetite to engage further in Afghanistan. Even if the US succeeds in signing the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the Afghans, the objectives would be limited as to what the US has not achieved with over 100,000 troops they will certainly not achieve with 10,000.
About the BSA, he said many political factions inside Afghanistan were in favour of signing it despite Karzai’s dilemma.
Khan said Karzai was preoccupied by the legacy he would leave behind, and he sees a political life for himself if he defies the US.
Khan said Pakistan has been sucked into the Afghan conflict over the past 30 years and has, in fact, become a conflict zone itself. He said 30 years was long enough for nations to learn lessons, however Pakistan had still not learnt lesson from Afghanistan.
Pakistan, with its domestic challenges and compulsions will suffer a heavy blow if policies are not changed.
While referring to the Taliban, he was of the view that the group is not in a position to stage a comeback as they did in 1996, as they lack the mobility they once had.
He said two possible scenarios are envisioned in Afghanistan, both pertaining to possible presence and exit of US residual forces. Both scenarios have their pros and cons. He said that if the US were able to maintain a residual force, this would naturally increase regional rivalries and justify the Afghan Taliban’s jihad.
However at the same time a complete US withdrawal and a ‘Zero’ option would increase the risk in violence and would also dry up any funds for Afghan institutions including the Afghan army. Subsequently it would quell and eventually put an end to the insurgency.
Any escalation in the Afghan conflict will have adverse fallout on Pakistan in the form of increasing militancy, incoming refugees, drugs, the diplomat said, stressing the need for formulating a clear narrative on Taliban and relations with the Afghan government.
Published in The Express Tribune, March 1st, 2014.