Seeking future stability

Much of what happens in our region in the future depends on what happens in Afghanistan over the coming few years — and the lack of certainty on that front can only add to the wider uncertainty over what lies ahead. This point was brought home by US President Barack Obama on February 25, as he warned his Afghan counterpart President Hamid Karzai that currently, the US was planning a full troop pullout from the country this year, and had put the steps in place to make this a logistical possibility, given the failure on the part of the unpredictable President Karzai to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) that would allow a continued Nato troop presence for security and training purposes. President Obama has also made it clear that Washington remained ready to sign the BSA with President Karzai or another leader. The need for this agreement has been strongly voiced from within Afghanistan. A council of tribal elders had already approved it and the Afghan President’s unexpected refusal to put pen to paper has strained relations with the US, which since 2001 has, of course, played a key role in Afghanistan.

It is also quite obvious that the US troop presence is required if we are to avoid Afghanistan plunging into chaos. Militant forces and warlords vying for power remain formidably strong there and most observers are convinced that an ill-trained Afghan Army on its own would be able to do very little against them. For the sake of Afghanistan, its people, and also our own country, we must hope the issues over the BSA can be sorted out as quickly as possible. The nature of the current situation is such that Washington, Kabul and Islamabad need to act jointly to tackle it. Any rifts among these three centres of power can only do harm, stripping away the chances of gaining the calm and the stability that is so desperately needed if there is to be a return to anything resembling normalcy in this part of the world.


Published in The Express Tribune, February 27^th, 2014.