Gazing into the crystal ball
Predicting anything in Pakistan with a better than 51 per cent degree of certainty is uncertain in the extreme.
Futurology can be a risky business and predicting anything in Pakistan with a better than 51 per cent degree of certainty is uncertain in the extreme. The agenda remains dominated by violence and social discord, and a hinge on which much is going to turn is the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan. The Afghan government has yet to sign the agreement that will define how many American troops (and others, it is rarely mentioned) will be in-country after the withdrawal is complete. An election is imminent in Afghanistan; the Karzai era is drawing to a close and militants wait in the wings on both sides of the border.
The war in Afghanistan has been profoundly detrimental to Pakistan and the American exit is unlikely to bring any improvement in the Pakistan security environment, and may well prompt a further deterioration as the Afghan Taliban move into the power vacuum. The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship 2014 is going to be a year of unnerving uncertainty.
On a brighter but related note, there is an easing of tensions to the east, and we may expect fewer incidents on the Line of Control than in 2013, especially following the meetings of the prime ministers of India and Pakistan in September and that of the DGMOs of both armies in December. Outside the military box relations with India are, at least, out of the freezer but far from being defrosted. There is a vast potential for trade between India and Pakistan and that remains to be realised and we can only hope that there is movement on that front in 2014. Moves have been made by the current government to promote the trading relationship but with more than half a century of mistrust and three wars in living memory, both sides will have to stand firm against hawkish elements who want the relationship to remain in the freezer.
Looking inwards, there is much to be gloomy about, but much to be hopeful about too. The first-ever democratic transition of government gives hope that democratic institutions in the country will be further strengthened in the coming years, with the first real test being the holding of the local government elections in three provinces early in 2014. The way these are conducted and the way local governments operate will go a long way towards devolving power to the grassroots level, something that will augur well for the future.
More depressingly, the formal economy is staggering under power cuts, unemployment is rising, inflation is inching upwards, moves to widen the tax footprint and increase revenue are painfully slow and insufficiently radical, and poor security continues to deter inwards investment. Admittedly, there is no quick fix for the problems of the power sector. What the government can, at least, do in the short term is to display the political will to drop the hammer on legislators, almost 50 per cent of whom pay not a rupee in taxes.
Sectarian conflict deepened in 2013 and there is little hope right now that this will change in 2014 unless the state comes down hard on purveyors of hate literature and speech. The minorities were targeted repeatedly and in most cases the culprits are yet to be caught. The number of successful prosecutions under anti-terrorism legislation is tiny, and unless legislation is implemented effectively, there will be no increase in terrorists being brought to book in 2014. Terrorists have the upper hand strategically and are a determined, well-resourced enemy. By contrast, the state has yet to publish a viable counter-terrorism policy or strategy, something that must come to light as soon as possible if we are to tackle this menace head on in 2014.
Despite the possibilities of the coming year being another difficult one for the country, there is much that has happened in the last year that gives us hope that we can look forward to a better future if our leadership shows the resolve and sense to tackle the challenges that face us head on.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 1st, 2014.
The war in Afghanistan has been profoundly detrimental to Pakistan and the American exit is unlikely to bring any improvement in the Pakistan security environment, and may well prompt a further deterioration as the Afghan Taliban move into the power vacuum. The Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship 2014 is going to be a year of unnerving uncertainty.
On a brighter but related note, there is an easing of tensions to the east, and we may expect fewer incidents on the Line of Control than in 2013, especially following the meetings of the prime ministers of India and Pakistan in September and that of the DGMOs of both armies in December. Outside the military box relations with India are, at least, out of the freezer but far from being defrosted. There is a vast potential for trade between India and Pakistan and that remains to be realised and we can only hope that there is movement on that front in 2014. Moves have been made by the current government to promote the trading relationship but with more than half a century of mistrust and three wars in living memory, both sides will have to stand firm against hawkish elements who want the relationship to remain in the freezer.
Looking inwards, there is much to be gloomy about, but much to be hopeful about too. The first-ever democratic transition of government gives hope that democratic institutions in the country will be further strengthened in the coming years, with the first real test being the holding of the local government elections in three provinces early in 2014. The way these are conducted and the way local governments operate will go a long way towards devolving power to the grassroots level, something that will augur well for the future.
More depressingly, the formal economy is staggering under power cuts, unemployment is rising, inflation is inching upwards, moves to widen the tax footprint and increase revenue are painfully slow and insufficiently radical, and poor security continues to deter inwards investment. Admittedly, there is no quick fix for the problems of the power sector. What the government can, at least, do in the short term is to display the political will to drop the hammer on legislators, almost 50 per cent of whom pay not a rupee in taxes.
Sectarian conflict deepened in 2013 and there is little hope right now that this will change in 2014 unless the state comes down hard on purveyors of hate literature and speech. The minorities were targeted repeatedly and in most cases the culprits are yet to be caught. The number of successful prosecutions under anti-terrorism legislation is tiny, and unless legislation is implemented effectively, there will be no increase in terrorists being brought to book in 2014. Terrorists have the upper hand strategically and are a determined, well-resourced enemy. By contrast, the state has yet to publish a viable counter-terrorism policy or strategy, something that must come to light as soon as possible if we are to tackle this menace head on in 2014.
Despite the possibilities of the coming year being another difficult one for the country, there is much that has happened in the last year that gives us hope that we can look forward to a better future if our leadership shows the resolve and sense to tackle the challenges that face us head on.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 1st, 2014.