Analysis: Guns do the talking on Line of Control

In November 2003, the two hostile neighbours agreed to a ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC). Surprisingly, guns remained silent for almost a decade. Then suddenly in January this year trouble started. The delicately held ceasefire began to creak at the hinges as bullets and shrapnel developed a mind of their own, snuffing out lives and cracking open structural abodes.

Since then, the situation has worsened. Last week saw heavy exchange of firepower across the working boundary in Sialkot. Earlier, Pakistan summoned the Indian High Commissioner in Islamabad to the Foreign Office and gave him a dressing down. Across the LoC, the Indian Home Minister toured the border villages in Occupied Kashmir and fired off a verbal warning to Pakistan. The carefully constructed and nurtured peace narrative, it seemed, had begun to unravel.

What happened? Explanations vary. “Indian belligerence is definitely linked to their domestic politics,” says a senior Pakistani official involved in formulating Pakistan’s India policy.  “Election fever and Narinder Modi’s Pakistan-bashing is deconstructing Indian narrative towards us,” he says.

This may be one reason, but clearly there are other factors at play. Pakistan-India ties are usually hostage to the prevailing mood and political environment in both countries. Add to this the Afghanistan cauldron and throw in the US troops withdrawal from the region next year and things get even more complicated. But none of this is breaking news. Modi’s vitriol does not come as a surprise. Leading the BJP charge against the corruption-tainted Congress government, Modi has been blasting the outgoing Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of being soft on Pakistan, and has also begun to target Rahul Gandhi in his speeches. As campaign fever builds up towards next year’s general elections, Pakistan will become the favourite whipping boy and each candidate will try and outdo the other in vowing to “teach Pakistan a lesson”.

On our side, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appears to be bending over backwards to reach out to India. During his US visit he lost no opportunity to gloat over his peace credentials, using every speech, every interview and every meeting to emphasize his desire to resolve outstanding issues with India. But times do not appear propitious for any grand peace initiatives. Sharif may desire what Gen Pervez Musharraf did, but he does not as yet have the leverage over State policy as Musharraf did. It was between 2004 and 2007, when Musharraf held complete sway over national policy, that Pakistan and India came closer than ever to resolving their issues including Kashmir. Officials say backchannel negotiations between Tariq Aziz and India’s S K Lambha produced surprising headway on all disputes. An Indian official was quoted as saying in 2009 that the two countries were on the verge of making a “historic” announcement. But then Musharraf dismissed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and the rest, as they say, is history.

Musharraf left, but the LoC ceasefire held. Gen Ashfaq Kayani had been DG ISI under Musharraf and was in the loop on the back channel developments. His tenure as army chief was defined not by the traditional India-centric approach, but by an emphasis on Afghanistan and terrorism. The weak PPP government took no initiative on India, or for that matter on any other foreign policy issue, preferring to outsource all this to army high command. With the change of guard in the army in the offing, no major course correction can be expected on India by the new government. A lot will depend on the gentleman who succeeds Gen Kayani in November.

So we return to the original question: why are the guns booming again? Is it the hardliners on both sides sending a signal to the peaceniks? Is it the Indian Establishment flexing its muscles ahead of the US withdrawal from Afghanistan next year? In the cloak-and-dagger games that define Pakistan-India ties, it is near impossible to say anything with certainty. Instead, the only certainty right now is the zero chance of concrete peace initiatives from either side, like the resumption of the composite dialogue process. The best that can be done is to not let the situation escalate further, and manage the acrimony till the dust settles in Islamabad and New Delhi. Hold the fire, but don’t hold your breath.

Pak-india tension: Worst skirmishes in a decade

Source: Pakistani, Indian and independent newspapers

Aug 5/6:

Poonch area Kamalkote Sector of Uri town in Baramulla District

Aug 8:
Chak Faqira belt, Samba Sector of Samba District Tatta Pani sector

Aug 10:
Poonch District

Aug 11:

Kanachak belt of Jammu District Balakote, Mendhar and Mankote Sectors in Poonch District Digwar village of Poonch District Poonch District

Aug 12:
Battal, Chirikot and Satwal sectors

Aug 14:
Keran sector of north Kashmir Khairni Rakkar village of Rawalakot district in Battal sector

Aug 15:

Kotli, Azad Kashmir Poonch sector

Aug 18:

Nakyal sector AJK’s Kotli district Mendhar sub-sector of Poonch district

Aug 19:
Hamirpur and Balakote border belts in Poonch Mankote and Mendhar belts

Aug 19:
Hamirpur and Balakote border belts in Poonch Mankote and Mendhar belts

Aug 21:

Shaqma Sector, near Skardu


Aug 22:

Rakhchakri Sector, Rawalkot; and Poonch

Aug 23:

Balnoi village near Poonch District

Aug 24:

Trikundi Gali and Balakot, Rajauri Districts; and Poonch

Aug 25:

Nakyal Sector, Kotli

Aug 26:
Nakyal Sector, Kotli

August 27

Nakyal sector

August 30

Pallanwala area, sub-sector in Jammu district

September 2

Nakyal Sector, Kotli district

October 4

Kotli area

October 11

Nakyal sector, Kotli district

October 15

Kotli area

October 17

Sialkot sector

October 19

Sialkot sector

October 21

Janglora, Sialkot sector Harpur, Sialkot sector Dhamala, Sialkot sector

October 22

Pukhlian, Sialkot sector Charwah, Sialkot sector Chapar, Sialkot sector

October 24

Bajwat Charwah, Sialkot sector

October 26

Charwah, Sialkot sector


Published in The Express Tribune, October 28^th, 2013.