Pakistan-India: between the lines
The reality is that India, unlike Pakistan, is under no compulsion to speed up the dialogue process.
The writer, a retired lieutenant colonel from the army, is a research scholar pursuing PhD in civil-military relations from Karachi University
Is this a lame-duck government devoid of the public mandate to negotiate peace with India? Or is this a government formed by a party that won elections on the slogan of peace with India? In a recent interview with the UK’s Telegraph, Nawaz Sharif claimed, “We didn’t have any India-bashing slogans in the elections. We don’t believe in such slogans. There have been such slogans in the past — 10 years ago, 20 years ago — but not now. In fact, I very clearly spoke about good relations with India even before the elections.” A vast majority of Pakistanis have trusted and mandated this government to revive the stalled peace process with New Delhi. It is in light of such a public mandate that Sharif pursues his current political strategy of ‘handling the escalating tensions at LoC with dialogue’. Why can’t then New Delhi break away from obstacles and barriers, like suspicion, disbelief and misgivings in our inter-state relationship and respond to Sharif’s extended hand of friendship?
The abrupt creation of the National Security Council (NSC), something that Sharif had vehemently opposed in the past, demonstrates how both the political and military elite in Pakistan are now on board together when it comes to mending the historical fractures that have been the hallmark of relations between the two neighbours. The civil-military institutional bonding at this stage, it seems, is designed to create an impression that both the civilian and the military elite realise the importance of embracing a renewed security agenda and response, without implementing which the credibility of pursuing peace as an instrument of policy will largely remain doubtful. Regardless of how the civil-military nexus collaborates, at least by formulating the NSC, the government has tactically agreed to provide a joint civil-military platform to institutionalise our security response. This is something that has not happened before and is also something that India will be watching closely.
The reality is that India, unlike Pakistan, is under no compulsion to speed up the dialogue process. While the Pakistani government and the military may realise now that we suffer because we left our security problems unaddressed for too long, there seems to be no immediate Indian insecurities that an early resumption of a peace dialogue with Pakistan may address. However, what India needs to carefully review is that resumption of an India-Pakistan peace dialogue will have a direct bearing on how Pakistan handles its insecurities on the western border. The likely unpleasant developments in Afghanistan after the Isaf’s drawdown is completed can be best handled if Pakistan and India agree on certain security commitments on the eastern front. This will give the necessary leverage to our political and military leadership to eradicate militancy, with manpower and resources spared from the eastern front. Otherwise, if militancy spirals out of control, then not only Pakistan, but the entire region will experience its negative fallout.
Viewed realistically, India will wait and see what constitutes our much-awaited national security policy. It will like to first see the emerging picture of transition and only when this transition takes the shape of reality, it may finally agree to a meaningful peace dialogue. As of now, Sharif’s good intentions of moving the dialogue process forward, is viewed by India only as a compulsory preference and not a policy. Until we make some tough strategic choices essential to our security, India will not view with seriousness the offer of dialogue. So, it is not a matter of reaching out to India but a matter of reaching in to implement the much-needed security reforms essential to fight terrorism and maintain order across Pakistan. Given India’s past experience, Sharif will continue to be reminded on how Kargil stood out as a black mark against his peace-seeking government during his previous tenure. One cannot blame India when it waits and sees how Pakistan’s deeply-entrenched institutions act this time around. Bringing militancy under control will be a long-drawn process. The future of our relationship with India will rely on how best we are able to meet this threat at home. Only after we have done our homework and done it well, will our desire of peace might finally take the shape of reality. It will take some doing and for all those, including our prime minister, who are in a hurry to see the two neighbours getting together soon to sort out their problems, I can only say: not so soon; not before we have done our homework.
Published in The Express Tribune, August30th, 2013.
The abrupt creation of the National Security Council (NSC), something that Sharif had vehemently opposed in the past, demonstrates how both the political and military elite in Pakistan are now on board together when it comes to mending the historical fractures that have been the hallmark of relations between the two neighbours. The civil-military institutional bonding at this stage, it seems, is designed to create an impression that both the civilian and the military elite realise the importance of embracing a renewed security agenda and response, without implementing which the credibility of pursuing peace as an instrument of policy will largely remain doubtful. Regardless of how the civil-military nexus collaborates, at least by formulating the NSC, the government has tactically agreed to provide a joint civil-military platform to institutionalise our security response. This is something that has not happened before and is also something that India will be watching closely.
The reality is that India, unlike Pakistan, is under no compulsion to speed up the dialogue process. While the Pakistani government and the military may realise now that we suffer because we left our security problems unaddressed for too long, there seems to be no immediate Indian insecurities that an early resumption of a peace dialogue with Pakistan may address. However, what India needs to carefully review is that resumption of an India-Pakistan peace dialogue will have a direct bearing on how Pakistan handles its insecurities on the western border. The likely unpleasant developments in Afghanistan after the Isaf’s drawdown is completed can be best handled if Pakistan and India agree on certain security commitments on the eastern front. This will give the necessary leverage to our political and military leadership to eradicate militancy, with manpower and resources spared from the eastern front. Otherwise, if militancy spirals out of control, then not only Pakistan, but the entire region will experience its negative fallout.
Viewed realistically, India will wait and see what constitutes our much-awaited national security policy. It will like to first see the emerging picture of transition and only when this transition takes the shape of reality, it may finally agree to a meaningful peace dialogue. As of now, Sharif’s good intentions of moving the dialogue process forward, is viewed by India only as a compulsory preference and not a policy. Until we make some tough strategic choices essential to our security, India will not view with seriousness the offer of dialogue. So, it is not a matter of reaching out to India but a matter of reaching in to implement the much-needed security reforms essential to fight terrorism and maintain order across Pakistan. Given India’s past experience, Sharif will continue to be reminded on how Kargil stood out as a black mark against his peace-seeking government during his previous tenure. One cannot blame India when it waits and sees how Pakistan’s deeply-entrenched institutions act this time around. Bringing militancy under control will be a long-drawn process. The future of our relationship with India will rely on how best we are able to meet this threat at home. Only after we have done our homework and done it well, will our desire of peace might finally take the shape of reality. It will take some doing and for all those, including our prime minister, who are in a hurry to see the two neighbours getting together soon to sort out their problems, I can only say: not so soon; not before we have done our homework.
Published in The Express Tribune, August30th, 2013.