Misplaced priorities: Population will hit 300m by 2050 if left unchecked, warn economists
UNFPA representative says investments in health and education will help achieve demographic dividend.
UNFPA representative says investments in health and education will help achieve demographic dividend.
KARACHI:
There are growing concerns about the rapid population growth in Pakistan with 2.1 births per woman currently and at this pace, the population will hit 300 million by 2050.
These views were expressed by Rabbi Royan, a representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), during the launch of the book ‘Capturing the Demographic Dividend in Pakistan’ at a hotel on Thursday.
The book is compiled by different authors. It discusses problems that the country could possibly face in 2050 in terms of economic development if the fertility rates are not checked. Royan stressed the need to raise greater awareness about investments in education and health for the country to achieve demographic dividend.
Population Council’s country director Dr Zeba Sathar said that though population debate should have been carried out by the ‘second generation’, but since it was ignored then it should be debated now. “We would still be hitting at least 300 million by 2050,” she said. The book stresses on starting afresh as the demographers had come onboard with the economists to deal with population control, she said.
“Population growth impacts the level of education, lifestyle, poverty levels, energy consumption and law and order situation. This book could be helpful in understanding how to respond to economic crisis.”
“In 1971, both Pakistan and Bangladesh had almost the same population level but now they have 150 million people, while we are leading with 180 million,” said Dr Sathar.
Dr John May, a visiting scholar at Population Reference Bureau, termed the book a ‘ground breaking analysis’ for understanding the demographic dividend.
“The family planning approach is too narrow. Priority should be given to female education and gender equality,” he said, adding that it would become even more challenging after the decentralisation of power to the provinces.
The book had appeared at a critical time in Pakistan’s history, said Dr John Bongaarts, scholar at the Population Council. Dr Bongaarts said that Pakistan was the 14th largest country in the world in terms of population in 1950, and, in 2050, it would become the fifth largest with only the US, China, India and Nigeria leading.
Dr Bongaart pointed out that the unemployment would become a major problem in 2050. Dr Bongaart said: “Pakistan would need to stabilise its economy as unemployment would further political unrest.”
“Many women are impregnated without proper planning,” he said, emphasising on the need to educate women about their rights.
Arif Ahmed Khan, additional chief secretary of the Planning and Development department, was of the opinion that with the ever-growing population it was becoming hard to design the policies desired by the politicians. Khan said that the book, however, offered a solution to Pakistan’s problems and provided a road map for the future. He stressed that education, public health and population control should be prioritised.
On the other hand, Dr Ishrat Hussain, dean and director of the Institute of Business Administration, said: “They [India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh] would have a lot of young people by 2050. But, this is not an ideal situation.”
Dr Hussain said the book was right about stressing investment in female education. “There is a high return on investment in female education. There is, however, a gap between words and actions. The devolution of power from the centre was a good sign but the district government should be given responsibility for investing in health and education.”
Published in The Express Tribune, July 1st, 2013.
There are growing concerns about the rapid population growth in Pakistan with 2.1 births per woman currently and at this pace, the population will hit 300 million by 2050.
These views were expressed by Rabbi Royan, a representative of the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), during the launch of the book ‘Capturing the Demographic Dividend in Pakistan’ at a hotel on Thursday.
The book is compiled by different authors. It discusses problems that the country could possibly face in 2050 in terms of economic development if the fertility rates are not checked. Royan stressed the need to raise greater awareness about investments in education and health for the country to achieve demographic dividend.
Population Council’s country director Dr Zeba Sathar said that though population debate should have been carried out by the ‘second generation’, but since it was ignored then it should be debated now. “We would still be hitting at least 300 million by 2050,” she said. The book stresses on starting afresh as the demographers had come onboard with the economists to deal with population control, she said.
“Population growth impacts the level of education, lifestyle, poverty levels, energy consumption and law and order situation. This book could be helpful in understanding how to respond to economic crisis.”
“In 1971, both Pakistan and Bangladesh had almost the same population level but now they have 150 million people, while we are leading with 180 million,” said Dr Sathar.
Dr John May, a visiting scholar at Population Reference Bureau, termed the book a ‘ground breaking analysis’ for understanding the demographic dividend.
“The family planning approach is too narrow. Priority should be given to female education and gender equality,” he said, adding that it would become even more challenging after the decentralisation of power to the provinces.
The book had appeared at a critical time in Pakistan’s history, said Dr John Bongaarts, scholar at the Population Council. Dr Bongaarts said that Pakistan was the 14th largest country in the world in terms of population in 1950, and, in 2050, it would become the fifth largest with only the US, China, India and Nigeria leading.
Dr Bongaart pointed out that the unemployment would become a major problem in 2050. Dr Bongaart said: “Pakistan would need to stabilise its economy as unemployment would further political unrest.”
“Many women are impregnated without proper planning,” he said, emphasising on the need to educate women about their rights.
Arif Ahmed Khan, additional chief secretary of the Planning and Development department, was of the opinion that with the ever-growing population it was becoming hard to design the policies desired by the politicians. Khan said that the book, however, offered a solution to Pakistan’s problems and provided a road map for the future. He stressed that education, public health and population control should be prioritised.
On the other hand, Dr Ishrat Hussain, dean and director of the Institute of Business Administration, said: “They [India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh] would have a lot of young people by 2050. But, this is not an ideal situation.”
Dr Hussain said the book was right about stressing investment in female education. “There is a high return on investment in female education. There is, however, a gap between words and actions. The devolution of power from the centre was a good sign but the district government should be given responsibility for investing in health and education.”
Published in The Express Tribune, July 1st, 2013.