The writer is Editor, National Security Affairs at Capital TV and a visiting fellow at SDPI
Mehmood Khan Achakzai, chief of the Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party, wants the state to withdraw security forces from the tribal areas, give immunity to the foreigners hiding there and start “serious” negotiations with the Taliban. He also wants the United States involved in these talks and thinks that Washington should be asked to put a moratorium on drone strikes until the conclusion of this process.
Now, Achakzai is a wise man and a seasoned politician. In this particular case, however, he seems to have allowed himself into a flight of fantasy instead of keeping his feet firmly planted on the ground.
Look at the implications and assumptions here.
Withdrawing troops from the tribal areas implies, or can be perceived to, that the trouble there is owed to military presence, not the Taliban. It assumes that by conceding the Taliban demand that the military be withdrawn from a territory that belongs to the state, the Taliban, by becoming more amenable to talks will start talking peace and, so it seems, will allow the state to extend its writ to Fata. It further assumes that the Taliban are attacking the state because of the military presence in the area and not because the military had to be sent in to check the accumulation in the area of undesirable elements, domestic and foreign.
None of these assumptions is correct. In fact, by withdrawing, all the agencies in Fata will become like North Waziristan and all the gains will be lost. It is true that the Taliban will be more amenable to talking, but that will not be because they would have been weakened but because they will have the confidence to talk from a position of strength provided to them by the state. The state will have effectively ceded its writ to them.
When the state cut the ill-advised Shakai Agreement in April 2004 with Nek Mohammad, a former petty car thief, Nek told the media that by coming to his lair, the army had surrendered to him, not the other way round.
Regarding giving immunity to foreigners, Achakzai needs to remember that the state, on multiple occasions, while cutting deals with the local tribes, made this concession: the foreigners, who are settled here and have contracted marriages, can live in the area but they must remain peaceful and must not indulge in unlawful activities. It was as effective as the Maginot Line before the Panzers. Nothing has changed. The foreigners, also allied with Al-Qaeda, make up effective fighting cadres for the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Why would they remain peaceful and settle down to tending sheep, if not taking their kids out to have ice cream and watching Fast and Furious in some multiplex in North Waziristan?
How will the immunity for peaceful existence, presumably Achakzai’s formula, be enforced in Fata, especially if the state has withdrawn from the area and by doing so accepted the TTP’s suzerainty over Fata? And what guarantees will Achakzai extract from the TTP regarding those tribal lashkars which have stayed faithful to the state and have fought alongside the army? Going by previous experience, all local deals ended up strengthening the Taliban, who avenged themselves by merrily killing and beheading those who had sided with the state.
In fact, not only did the army lose much goodwill because of such deals, it also left pro-state elements at the mercy of these groups, making it extremely difficult subsequently for any tribe to openly side with the state.
As for Washington putting a moratorium on drone strikes in order for Achakzai’s brilliant formula to succeed, I suspect there won’t be many buyers in that town. Getting Washington to do so also assumes, again with the naivete of a winsome damsel, that no elements in Fata cross over into Afghanistan to attack Nato-Isaf troops there, just like no elements cross west to east to attack Pakistani troops.
I have a suggestion for Achakzai. If he can work out an enduring peace deal with the Ghabizais in his area, a much less complicated affair than the cross he wants to bear, I will have more faith in his ability to find solutions to wicked problems.
Now that I mention the Ghabizais, here is a bird’s eye view of what that is.
In the Gulistan area of Balochistan, along the road to Chaman, home to Achakzai, a feud erupted in 1990. It has so far consumed over 200 people, locals say. This is how it began.
Mohammad Khan Ghabizai murdered a man, Aslam, from the Achakzai tribe. Jirgas were held and an agreement was reached. Locals told me that Mohammad Khan, despite the agreement, continued to act arrogantly. This led to some Achakzai tribesmen ambushing and killing Mohammad Khan, along with his two sons, at Syed Hameed Cross on the road to Chaman. Our Achakzai had nothing to do with these killings but the Ghabizais held him responsible for the killings. Thus began a cycle with many a battle fought, Ghabizais led by Ahmad Khan and now Shakoor Khan, both sons of Mohammad Khan.
Typical tribal feud that and yet, 23 years down the line it remains alive, simmering and occasionally flaring up. As I said, if Achakzai can make peace in Gulistan, as a test case of sorts, I will be a little more confident of his scheme apropos of the TTP.
As I have argued several times in this space, talking is the only way to ultimately settle things. But talking requires an enabling environment which, in a conflict, depends on using force in ways that lead to utility of force. Achakzai’s formula is based on assumptions that are either untested or have been tried, tested and found wanting.
Another point which I have attempted to make before, and often, relates to the overall strategy to deal with these groups. Physical dominance of the area is important. This is what the army has done in large parts of Fata through counterterrorism military operations. But it’s not enough and it doesn’t address the other flank, neutralising urban terrorism, the advantage these groups have and which they will utilise. We have been like a boxer fighting with one strong arm. Before we get to talking, let’s first develop a viable CT strategy. There are aspects of that which need a separate discussion.
The eeriness of our situation reminds me of Pinter’s The Caretaker. The drop falls into the bucket; it has been falling for years now, followed by a pause. Nothing seems to come out of it. We don’t even know what it signifies.
Corollary: pie-in-the-sky schemes are not going to work.
Published in The Express Tribune, June 19th, 2013.
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COMMENTS (67)
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Ejaz Haider has for the first time sketched the scenario accurately apart from the claim that the army conducted successful COIN and CT operations in FATA and Malakand. and achakzae is one step ahead of Imran Khan in appeasing the taliban. Before proposing this plan he should have thought of his party workers who were target-killed in South Waziristan for having affiliation with his party...such a shame
ET: Please help me with my right of reply to someone who has written to me. @bigsaf: " Absolute Taliban Sharia? Eradication of non-Sunnis?)" No not at all. This is a false accusation against me. I only was trying to say that by reflecting (moderate Sunni) ethos of the majority, the TTP would lose its appeal and support and this would help eradicate them.
"Its anti-minority, anti-Shia resentment for just having a presence." Again, a false accusation. Look at my “Sunoo Na Sunoo Jun 20, 2013 - 8:26PM” comment which reads as follows:“Before being a Sunni or Shia let everyone think realistically, fairly, and equitably. The rights of minorities is very important and must be given full protection. So are the rights of majority for fair institutional representation.” Again, I want to say as I stated before the rights of minority are important and must be given full protection. So your argument is flawed.
Your following statement is also against facts: “These claims are laughable when risks of discrimination are higher for non-Sunnis, including within the army.” Check the statistics of the representation of Shia in the officer cadres to know the facts. There is absolutely no “Sunni hegemony” in Pakistan as you falsely contend.
ET, please let this comment through @Talha Rizvi: I appreciate the few moderates that we have left.
@Sunoo Na Sunoo: Its like a bigoted majority white supremacist claim he's not represented in the US due to minority black citizens. Its irrational grievances based on privileged prejudices, a warped reality and insane excuses and propaganda by extremists. Canada's top domestic and foreign threat is Wahhabi/Salafi/Sunni Islamist extremism. You think its because of Shia lawmakers or soldiers? The Afghan Taliban, LeT, JeM, Al Qaeda, are because of lack of majority Sunni ethos? (what does that even mean in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, far from the non-religious Shia Jinnah's vision? Absolute Taliban Sharia? Eradication of non-Sunnis?)
The argument is disingenuous. Its anti-minority, anti-Shia resentment for just having a presence. There's no non-Sunni/Shia hegemony or majority Sunni marginalization in Pak. Its ideological irrationality of extremists amongst some of the Sunni majority, imposing intolerant beliefs and control on all others, including liberal, secular and moderate Sunnis. Zia-ul-Haq is credited successfully for radicalizing the state in his Sunnification/Wahhabification drive. There is a hegemony of Sunni Deoband lawmakers on an unrepresented G-B Shia majority, with a historic state sponsored massacre by Sunni militants, besides the G-B infantry being easily expendable canon fodder for tensions across the border. These claims are laughable when risks of discrimination are higher for non-Sunnis, including within the army. Even Pak's founder had to have 2 funerals, one private based on Shia rituals, and one public led by a Sunni Deoband cleric, highlighting the majority's state public power, besides his own sectarian religious identity denied by Pak's courts for his sister's inheritance claim, which was also rejected. A fearful Benazir Bhutto in the 90's had to come screaming down parliament claiming she was 'not a Shia' when the topic was broached by other parliamentarians. No academic or sane person will buy such outlandish views. Its absolutely untrue and most will agree its a Sunni hegemony in Pak, no matter how Pak's KKK tries to twist it.
@Lala Gee: Thanks! But even in secular societies there is some reflection of the ethos of the majority. That exactly is missing in Pakistan.
@Sunoo Na Sunoo:
"I respect your comments, which generally are very good and I appreciate them as well."
Thank you for your kind words. Really appreciates. I am a staunch believer of TRUE Secularism, which I consider is the true spirit of Islam according to my understanding of its tenets. In a truly Secular society, these issues which you have pointed out do not arise. Moreover, I was referring to @Rex Minors: whole comment and used his opening sentence to point out which of his comment I was talking about.
@Lala Gee: I respect your comments, which generally are very good and I appreciate them as well. But here I was trying to bring to attention that the majority does not have proportional institutional representation, which is true. Therefore, there are no equal rights in Pakistan, as per the statement you have quoted: ““In a democacy there is no such thng which is called minority! All citizens of the State have equal rights, regardless of their gnder, ethnic and religious divide.”” The majority of the citizens of the State do not have representation equal to their relative percentage in the population.
@Lala Gee: "All citizens of the State have equal rights, regardless of their gnder, ethnic and religious divide.” But the majority does not have equal rights in Pakistan.
@Sunoo Na Sunoo: Maria,
sorry I have answered your posts, but they are either lost in transit or the ET moderate thrashed it.
Rex Minor
@Rex Minor:
"In a democacy there is no such thng which is called minority! All citizens of the State have equal rights, regardless of their gnder, ethnic and religious divide."
Your above quoted comment is the more balanced and accurate analysis of the issues than your all other comments I have ever come across. However, your claim in the earlier comment that Pakistan army is not the national army is as far away from truth as anything could possibly be.
ET: Please let me reply to someone who has accused me: @Talha Rizvi: Your answer is irrelevant. My post only relates to disproportional institutional representation. It is not bigotry but an attempt to show that the rights of majority for due representation are denied. Your personal attacks are more reflective of bigotry than anything I have written in my posts.
@Rex Minor: Your analogy of Christian Europe is misapplied to South Asia. You are unaware of the intricacies of the Shia-Sunni divide. That is the root cause of instability in Pakistan and the lack of a coherent direction of the policies of the State. The Sunnis tried to have a reflection of the ethos of the majority under Zia but failed. This led to the creation of the Tehreek Nifaz e Fiqh Jaffrey in 1979/1980. This was followed by the Tehreek e Nifaz e Shariat e Muhammadi in 1992, which took over Swat in 2007 but was uprooted following a military action. The Laskar e Jhangvi was created in 1996 and is accused of killing Shias in cold blood and it has brought a wrong/bad name to the majority of Sunnis who do not support it. In 2007, many Deobandi Sunni militant groups coalesced with the TTP and they are (wrongly) against the Government and their contention is that they have the right to impose (Sunni) Sharia in the areas they control. The State rightly does not accept this as its writ is challenged and the fight goes on and has become a stalemate. If the ethos of the (more than 70% Sunni) majority was reflected in the policies of the State, the TTP would have no appeal and would lose any support it has from its own people. (What kind of democracy is Pakistan, where the will of the majority is frustrated?)
@Rex Minor: You perhaps do not understand that the Pakistani army is a multi ethnic army which recruits from all of the nation's ethnic groups. No one refers to the Pakistani army as protecting Pashtuns or Baluchis or Kashmiris or Sindis or Punjabis - quite simply they are protecting all citizens. You can argue that the army has a higher percentage of Pashtuns and North Punjabis since these races have historically shown an interest in soldiering as a career. You have yet to answer this basic question: If citizens of any nation are under threat from foreign funded miscreants, does not the nation's army protect its citizens? Do you mean to say that when the Irish Republican Army sent in criminals to bomb innocent British citizens in London and other British cities, the British army should not have been called in to protect its citizens? Since you claim that you are not Asian, please give us your national origin so I can give you an example from your own country of origin. Clearly from your writing, English is not your first language, so please indulge me in order for me to find some relevant examples for you.
@Sunoo Na Sunoo:
In a democacy there is no such thng which is called minority! All citizens of the State have equal rights, regardless of their gnder, ethnic and religious divide. This is what Mr Jinnah was unable to articulate in his speeches since his political movement was based on separation of muslim majority land from the Hindu majority land due to cultural conflicts, whereas the opposing ongressmen wanted to hol on to land without having any regard for the peoples social problems.
Both Pakistan and India have remained in this mindset, one not letting go of the land and Pakistan struggling with the cultural conflicts of muslims as well as non muslims. It takes a lot of will of the people, the intellctual writers as well as the representatives of the people in th Government to reset the course with the purpose to create harmony among the citizens. There is no such thng as a sunni or shia or whatever, it is the political as well as cultural divide! The Christian dominated Europe has lived through it causing unimaginable destruction and loss of life before the Auflarung of the religion was carried out and accompanied by the renaissance and industrialization, huanism took birth. Islam has not unergone the process of Aufklarung and was shadowed by the christian crusades an the colonisation. The Aufklarung has finaly commenced with the so calle Arab Spring and this will take time but this is the destiny of the believers of the Ibrahimic massianic religions. Think over it1
Rex Minor
@E.T Please allow me to respond to someone who has written towards me: @ Sunoo na sunoo; I can't believe how ridiculous your claims are, In Pakistan if you write in well-enough English and use a Computer than you are at least a little bit educated but if this is your mentality than I agree with foreign commentators that Pakistan is filled with BIGOTS. Now moving on Do you know where this mentality has led us? People now take their times debating endlessly over the internet which prominent celebrities are Shia. They are reluctant to even sell and rent their houses to Shias. Due to My last name people often inquire whether I'm Shia. Last week I went to a government office to get some work done and the first Question asked was whether I'm shia? This mentality has led to the fact that people get killed due to their names. A prominent example is Syed Azfar Rizvi. By the way I'm a Sunni but now I fully understand the plight of the Shias and sympathize fully with them. P.S Last month a relative came to visit us and during the course of conversation disclosed that he had dropped Syed and Rizvi from his newborn son's name. This is where your 'realism' has led us.
What do you imply when you write Pakistan will overcome? Are the Baluchis and the Pashtuns are not Pakistan!!! Who was responsible for ordeing the assault on the mosque in the capital. Were there any sizeable protests, comparing to the attack on the Babry mosque or the empty wooden container in Ziarat.Those who shoot in their own feet must not blame others for their mistakes..When a uniformed military man feels unsafe in the capital of the country, is unlikely to protect some one in the autonomous territories.
Rex Minor
@Maria: Great analysis. Thanks for precious information. Yes, it is too farfetched to assume that the majority of Baluch or Taliban Pashtuns want independence from Pakistan. At the most, maybe new federating units with sufficient autonomy might solve the issues as a last resort. But that is too early and Pakistan is going to overcome the insurgencies successfully in the near future. However, unfortunately some “scholars” with inadequate knowledge of the subject and even lesser intellect to apply their limited knowledge properly are mistakenly pleading for the break-up of Pakistan.
@Maria: Thanks for precious information. Yes, it is too far-fetched to assume that the majority of Baluch or Taliban Pashtuns want independence from Pakistan. At the most, maybe new federating units with sufficient autonomy might solve the issues as a last resort. But that is too early and Pakistan is going to overcome the insurgencies successfully in the near future. However, unfortunately some “scholars” with inadequate knowledge of the subject and even lesser intellect to apply their limited knowledge properly are mistakenly pleading for the break-up of Pakistan.
@Talha Rizvi: ET: Please help me with my right to reply You have falsely accused me regarding my source of information. Most of my information in this regard comes from ET itself. I remember reading an ET article which said something to the effect that whereas there are twenty percent Shias in Pakistan there are forty percent Shia officers in Pak Army. Further, the article said that if the Jawans refuse to obey a Shia officer it would lead to chaos (or something worse like the end of Pakistan.) I wish I had remembered the reference. The resolution of the Shia-Sunni issue is important as no national consensus is possible without it. This has nothing to do with hate but has everything to do with fairness and equity. Any realist knows that Zia’s botched attempt to impose (Sunni) Islam led to the creation of Tehreek e Nifaze Fiqh Jaffrey which led to Sufi Mohammad’s Tehreek and the LeJ and TTP. A vicious cycle of fanatic rivalry is the cause of the destruction of peace in Pakistan. Before being a Sunni or Shia let everyone think realistically, fairly, and equitably. The rights of minorities is very important and must be given full protection. So are the rights of majority for fair institutional representation.
@Maria: I did say 'almost' with non existant. I ignore less than 1% in statistics. Your grandfather was wise in his reaction, the proof that the neurons in his brain were functionin automaticaly. What do you reckon the people with pains react in the western part of the world apart from alcohal consumption, they are rcommended to take the 'Opiate' which is made from the opium as pain killers. If one was to compare the suicide statistics will find that fewer Talibans die in their missions versus those who die in the scandanavian countries.
If a Pashtun needs a protection from the army for his scurity , then he has no business lving in the Pashtun area. Those who need army protection ar foreiners and not integrated into the majority culture.Yousaf Zai tribes were beliggerant even against the moghul monarch and refused to pay revenues Aurangzeb army had to withdraw. Pakistan army is not a National army and hold allegance to the traditions of their units raised by the Brits. The use of long range artillery pieces is not going to frighten those who have withstood American Tomahawk missiles. They are simply causng civilian casualtes and prolonging the cultral conflict. Pakistan was created because of cultural conflict between the muslim minority in the Hindu majorty areas, and since its inception this cnflict has persisted rst with the Bengali Nation and later with the Pashtuns and Baluchis. In medicine the diagnosis of the diseas is sometimes more important than the treatment.
If the colonialists understood it and managed to rule them with a fewer cavalry of their own then how come that the Natives do not recognise it?. And the reason is very simple the education system which the Brits introduced to keep the Natives as loyal citizens, keeping the chiefs as Barons, Rajas and sultans and the rest as the flunkies.
Nothing prsonal but academic expressions.
Rex Minor
ET:Please let me respond to someone who has written to me. @Talha Rizvi: I am not a hater but just a realist. Just look at the proportion of representation in the Pak Army, for example. Get your facts straight.
@Rex Minor: You don't seem to know that drug abuse is also a a problem in some parts of Pakistan, especially many urban regions like Karachi. If you think opium consumption is non existant in Pashtun areas, then you are really off the mark because even my grandfather would use it periodically as did many rural Pashtuns. In many Western countries the army or the National Reserve is called in during times of war to protect citizens from harm, especially when the threats come from outside a nation's borders. Pakistan is no exception. Ask the locals if they want the army to protect them from outside criminals or their paid agents and the answer will be a resounding yes. Go to Swat, Malakand or Quetta for that matter and you will see overwhelming support for the Pakistani army to crush miscreants. Lastly, you need to brush up on South Asian history; Pakistanis do not consider Pakistan coming into being because of a "divorce"; British India was an artificial construct made by European colonialists. Parts of Pakistan were part of a British colonial entity for hardly 100 years. Otherwise these lands have been part of many an empire and kingdom before the British made their colony and lumped together South Asia. Incidentally a bigger kingdom was made by the Central Asian Turks called the Mughal Empire but it also included Afghanistan and Bangladesh in their empire.
being a member of this region and well aware with the situation i m really depressed to listen that you have mentioned such a wrong events /accident and comparing with Mr Achikzai present statement. everyone knows how that feuds erupted 23years ago. who was the main criminal and the base of the feud was same like today, he used to hit Establishment and you being a close alley of establishment minded it. one should try to solve the problem dont look what is he? like you , your close student do not read and reply on your column but still you write . what does mean ? it means your caliber is not up to their standard. this is not essay job or task but we should try and try to solve .
@E.T Please allow me to respond to a hater: @ Sunoo na sunoo: Are you delusional? Perchance you get your information from LEJ's website.
@Maria: I am not an Asian!! It is always easier to fool oneself than others if one decides to live in the twilight zone. Afghanstan produces more than 80 % of the opium and more than 80 % of its supplies go to the USA, but its consumption in the Pashtun territories is almost non existant. The use of army against the citizens to protect the citizens might be a norm in India and Pakistan but in my part of th world. If one cannot live together in peace, a divorce and separation is the alternative. This is how Pakistan came into being and this is how bangla Desh came into being.
Rex Minor
@Rex Minor: Pakistan also does not care about world opinion of its actions, the way the US or NATO does. Given a free hand, you would be surprised at how quickly these tribals can brought to heel. I feel the US has been fighting this war with both hands tied behind its back, what with trying not to violate Pakistani sovereignty ( at least publicly) , corrupt Afghan government to appease etc.
@Raham Dil: I think Rex Minor has no idea that the majority of Pashtuns and for that matter the majority of Baluchis are staunchly pro Pakistani. Let him try to say his comments in either of these areas about integrating parts of Pakistan with Afghanistan and he will be told instead to integrate parts of Afghanistan with Tajikistan or Uzbekistan or better still India! Incidentally my mother's side is from the region of Pakistan that Rex Minor wants to discard but I am sure my family is more pro Pakistani that Rex Minor who is likely an Indian - otherwise anyone who has been to Peshawar and Quetta will tell you that people there are the most intense Pakistani patriots. As for Achakzai, he is making ill informed comments because he wants to win support from extremist elements who are attacking Pakistani civilians; By doing so, he only alienates himself from the majority residents who want the army there to crush the misceants like they did in Swat. People in Swat don't want the army to go back even though there is peace now.
@Raham Dil: @Aahjiz BayNawa: @Khadim Karrar:
It is the pigeon which closes her eyes and pretends that the cat is not there. Everytime you comment, make sure that you have glanced at the breaking news. The Americans are ready to sign the surrender document to get out safely. What does not belong to the other cannot grow together. The cultural conflict broke up India in two, and it was the culture conflict which broke up Pakistan in two as well, the use of military in Pakistan and India cannot keep separate Nations together unless there are strctural changes. Swiss system of Government has worked but the chechks and the slavaks could not remain together and separated ifrom each other, though both are the members of the European Union. Nawaz Sharif has the experience to lead but those who lost in the elections are not willing to support him.
Rex Minor
@Rex Minor:
And it's about time that you people get over a poem written by Rudyard Kipling. All over the tribune, there is always Afghans boasting about how brave and powerful they are, yet the truth remains that Afghan state is only less than 200 years old. Kandahar and Southern Afghanistan was always a territory of Persians. Kabul was always a territory of Turk, then Mongols and then Mughals.
Lastly, get out of medieval age mindset and at least provide employment to the 40% unemployed Afghan civilians if you actually want an inch of respect in this world.
@Rex Minor:
“The Talibans and the Baluchis must continue with their struggle and seek sparation from Pakistan, integrating with Afghanistan.”
First of all, Balochis have nothing to do with Afghanistan. Afghanistan is as much of an "occupier" over Baloch lands as is Iran and Pakistan. Secondly, no one wants to join Afghanistan considering how backwards and tribal the whole country is. Thirdly, Northern Afghanistan should be a part of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan respectively. And lastly, if you Afghans hate Pakistan so much, why do you come to non-Pakhtun areas of Pakistan like Islamabad and Rawalpindi? Don't bite the hands that feed you.
@Rex Minor: "Yes, I am a naive and would very much like to see the force which can confront the Talibans!" Wow! You are really impressed by the Taliban. But do not underestimate Pakistan’s resilience.
@Rex Minor: This part of your comment is unsavory: "The Talibans and the Baluchis must continue with their struggle and seek sparation from Pakistan, integrating with Afghanistan." On top of it is encouragement of fissiparous tendencies and as such is against the interests of Pakistan. But most importantly it is unrealistic and uncalled for and unwarranted.
Spot on analysis - I can see how the simple logic of your argument is lost on those who want to believe terrorists and criminals on the foreign payroll.
@Rex Minor: "The Talibans and the Baluchis must continue with their struggle and seek sparation from Pakistan, integrating with Afghanistan." Your arm chair speculations and advice are only like a reflection of a minor.
@Lala Gee: Your comments have ignored the doctrine of Pakistan military, namely if the civilian Government requires the use of military force to suppress the citizens of Pakistan to be able to rule, then the military will introduce the marshall law and remove te head of state.
Rex Minor
@Aahjiz BayNawa: Yes, I am a naive and would very much like to see the force which can confront the Talibans! It took the yanks over a decade and several of their Governments to arrive at the conclusion to negotiate a somewhat safe withdrawl. Pakistan is the weakest in the link.
Rex Minor
@nadeem:
"@Lala Gee: The Prime Minister of Pakistan can order the Army out of any part of Pakistan, as per law. The Army will be breaking the law and violating the Constitution of Pakistan if it goes into any territory where the Commander-in-Chief, the Prime Minister, has prohibited it from going."
Your are confusing a couple of things. First, the President of Pakistan, NOT the Prime Minister of Pakistan is the Supreme Commander of the armed forces. Second, Prime Minister cannot issue any unconstitutional order. Any order that would stop army defending the territory and the sovereignty of the state of Pakistan would be unconstitutional as army is constitutionally bound to do so. Only army can decide where in the country there presence is strategically and logistically essential from the defense point, as they are the ones who are supposed to knows how to make defense plans and operational strategies.
"High time the PM ordered the Army out of FATA, where it has been following its own ulterior agenda harmful both for the State of Pakistan as well as the People of Pakistan (40,000+ dead and counting)"
And those beasts who killed 40,000+ totally unrelated innocent Pakistanis are good citizens of the state and have committed no crime at all, and all the fault lies with Pak-Army? What a logic and mockery of history and human intelligence. Should I remind you that Pak-Army only entered in FATA after these terrorists started blowing innocent Pakistanis like you and me. What crime we have committed against them?
@Rex Minor: "The Talibans and the Baluchis must continue with their struggle and seek sparation from Pakistan, integrating with Afghanistan." The TTP and BLA are fighting each other in Baluchistan. It is naive to expect them to coexist peacefully regardless of whether with whom they remain or integrate with. Besides, Pakistan is strong enough to keep both of them in its fold. Stop being naive.
TTP is actually a reaction against the Shia domination of the State and its institution. Without addressing the real cause it is naive to expect that the TTP would be wished away. Although I do not support the TTP and its ideology or methods, yet as a realist one has to accept reality and remove the real cause if one really wants to resolve an issue. But this is not going to happen nor is TTP going to go away, period.
@Ibrahim: Well said! your leadership and the intellctual wealth as well as the media re loyal following the policy of 'Sepaation' from India! it resulted in separation of Bengal from Pakistan. The Talibans and the Baluchis must continue with their struggle and seek sparation from Pakistan, integrating with Afghanistan.
Rex Minor
A very good article. Achakzai Sahib is too far from realities of the statectraft and real politik in international affairs. Establishing peace in his home Tehsil of Gulistan would serve as a good pilot project to his political acumen.
A bit of analyticial error in your anlogoy sir, you narrated following assumption behind the 'formula', 1) Withdrawing troops from the tribal areas implies, or can be perceived to, that the trouble there is owed to military presence, not the Taliban. 2) It assumes that by conceding the Taliban demand that the military be withdrawn from a territory that belongs to the state, the Taliban, by becoming more amenable to talks will start talking peace and, so it seems, will allow the state to extend its writ to Fata. It further assumes that the Taliban are attacking the state because of the military presence in the area and not because the military had to be sent in to check the accumulation in the area of undesirable elements, domestic and foreign. Now if you look at Achakzai whole speech, non of these assumption makes his argument, He admire the capability of our security institutions, but Question the WILL of these institutions to effectively deal with the ISSUE. An the deliberate absence this WILL donot compose binary of Taliban versus Forces, rather suggest one the extension of other. This is the basic assumption behind the formula. You also sounds to be a seasoned journalist, and I dont think that, keeping the whole context of the speach in mind, it is difficult to extract the basic intent behind the formula. He urge us to accept this duality, even if it is in some ranks. Now we can challenge this assumption, criticize it, but this is what he and hundred and thousands of other living on the same fault-line feel. And let me also explain that this FEEL not a fantasy, it has been solidified and realized witnessing incidences, intents and actions of varied range...
It's really not that complicated. The TTP have the blood of innocent Pakistani's on their hands. they have targeted us repeatedly, in mosques, in our homes, in public- with indiscriminate killing. They will pay for their sins, and you people would do well to do your part in making sure that we kill every last one of them. Like it or not, there are those in this country who cannot be dissuaded from fighting fire with fire. No matter what line the government takes, such people will not forget the carnage that was inflicted upon us. So man up, pick up a rifle, pen, or facebook account (whatever your preffered weapon is) and start shooting at these criminals.
@ commentators... Thankyou for making me understand the west pakistani problem !!!!
@Ejaz and many commentators, It seems after a long time I have understood the problem of west pakistan areas !!!!! My, My , YES, Please correct me if I am wrong. Why can't the Tribes have there own Governments as smaller states aligned to the Federation of Isl. Rep. of Pakistan. May be you will have 50 states instead of 5~7, but everybody will be represented at center and also have there own governance. Your problem is NOT Taliban, Your problem is unity among yourselves and lack of respect for the other persons values.
India has around 200 languages and about 26 states when it became indpendence, I think you should have done it similarly at that time, Still time is there, in one single Year I think you can solve your major problems, it is 100% possible. you people only have to Respect each others values.
A bit of analyticial error in your anlogoy sir, you narrated following assumption behind the 'formula', 1) Withdrawing troops from the tribal areas implies, or can be perceived to, that the trouble there is owed to military presence, not the Taliban. 2) It assumes that by conceding the Taliban demand that the military be withdrawn from a territory that belongs to the state, the Taliban, by becoming more amenable to talks will start talking peace and, so it seems, will allow the state to extend its writ to Fata. It further assumes that the Taliban are attacking the state because of the military presence in the area and not because the military had to be sent in to check the accumulation in the area of undesirable elements, domestic and foreign. Now look at Achakzai whole speech, he basically admire the capability of our security institutions, but Question the WILL of these institutions to effectively deal with the ISSUE. And the WILL is not to resolve but to prolong, not to counter but patronize, not to ensure peace but position your self strategic grounds. This is the basic assumption behind the formula. You also sounds to be a seasoned journalist, and I dont think that, keeping the whole context of the speach in mind, it is difficult to extract the basic intent behind the formula. He urge us to accept this duality, even if it is in some ranks. Now we can challenge this assumption, criticize it, but this is what he and hundred and thousands of other living on the same fault-line feel. And let me also explain that this FEEL not a fantasy, it has been solidified and realized witnessing incidences, intents and actions
@Lala Gee: The Prime Minister of Pakistan can order the Army out of any part of Pakistan, as per law. The Army will be breaking the law and violating the Constitution of Pakistan if it goes into any territory where the Commander-in-Chief, the Prime Minister, has prohibited it from going. High time the PM ordered the Army out of FATA, where it has been following its own ulterior agenda harmful both for the State of Pakistan as well as the People of Pakistan (40,000+ dead and counting)
Any demand to withdraw Pak-Army from any part of Pakistan is illegal, irrational, dangerous, and unacceptable. However, who ever is willing to live peacefully and abide law, GOP should talk with them, and remedy their genuine grievances. This is the only lasting solution of the problem.
Mr . Analyst to how much extent the security forces have succeeded in restoring peace? how many taliban/ terrorists have been killed by security forces ? if u r against drones, u need to eradicate these terrorists groups from pakistan and specially their nursery in punjab . if u r a threat to the world, they have all the rights to attack u anywhere in ur country.
Mr ijaz haider you have deduced wrong assumption from achakzai's speech, actually his point was that if our intelligence agencies withdraw his support from Taliban, the people of FATA will drew them out. this is the reality and i hope you will give a second thought to your analysis.
achakzai should first tell his brother to vacate governor house which is also a symbol of british slavery
Spot on sir. You can't discuss the advantages of a vegetarian diet with a blood thirsty man eater. Talks from a position of strength only then they will be fruitful.
Great analysis. These leaders take us for fools, when they are themselves deeply involved in the unrest in their respective areas.
And look at the great success the army has had in controlling terrorists from FATA.. !!!
Interestingly, Ejaz Haider ignores much more revelations in the rest of Achakzai speech. How convenient for him? This is what you can expect from the so-called "liberal patriots."
An important point in Achakzai's speech is that it is high time our boys in khaki come clean. State support for insurgents in the guise of good/bad Taliban has not turned out to be a strategic master stroke. Yet the deep state insists on the use of proxies a la Achakzai's tribal rivals. It is no secret that this "typical tribal feud" was punishment for a pro-democratic stance and a refusal to toe the strategic-depth line. Both conflicts could be solved by upholding the supremacy of civilian control in the country. Perhaps the author's analogy is fitting after all.
A tiny TURI Pashtun tribe hold ground and resisted all proxies successfully but a nuclear Pakistan army handed over rest of FATA to proxies,it is crystal clear Pakistani security forces are there to protect proxies and not to defend local population,they do defend proxies from local Pashtoons revenge attack that is why all the time curfew on locals movement but freedom to proxies.
Mr Ijaz, I am deeply disappointed with your intellectual dishonesty. Pseudo-intellectual like you are unfortunately spreading wrong information through national media. You even don't know that Ghabzai is a branch of Achakzai. If you don't know this basic fact how can one rely on your's analysis. Achekzai's formula is a very serious and sensible solution of the Fata's problem. You people setting in Islamabad don't know ground realities in any region. I hope people will understand that the above article is based on wrong facts and biased opinion.
it is to briefly comment that your analysis would be more profound if it had touched the social realities existing on grounds which a person without being native or not ever been to Fata or have spent sometime there could understand situation so much at indepth you raised basic questions"the very connotation Talib in its political epistemology and etymology especially in the context of Pashtun has not been given too much and other too much overgeneralization prominent in the ideas of writter especially regarding Pashtun about millitant no one is born with Kalashinkove in his hands nor Pashtun are the inventors of Kalashinkov we are just taught how to operate as far foreigners are concerned Fata doesnt share any border with Chechnya of Egypt we dont how did they come and Pashtun have their own traditions under pracrice down the traditions if they how to welcome and then they might have mechanism "How to exit
"We have been like a boxer fighting with one strong arm." Excuse me. Did you mean the "Taliban" ?
I wonder how writers comment on something of what neither they have any prior knowledge nor have they been living in that society but since they are writers so they become an authority. The writer doesn't know how much the writ of government is squeezed since army has taken over. Prior to army arrival ,a single administrative officer (political agent equivalent to Deputy commissioner ) would control the Waziristan through his chain of command so efficiently where nobody could ever point at any incident of law and order. Today Army can not move out of their garrison unless they announce curfew. The writ of government is reduced to military garrison only.The major roads closer to their garrison is forbidden to be used by citizens and people whether sick or whosoever, have to traverse 12 miles on kacha tracks to get to their homes which are hardly 3 miles on main roads. As for the foreigners are concerned, the intelligence agencies are in permanent contacts with them. They meet openly , they get everything . Our military consider them as their assets which will be used after NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. Pakistan Military ruined the tribal area and it will take decades to bring it back to normal.
And now please say that America's dialogue with the AFG Taliban provides a good precedence for us to do the same, for the situation is entirely differently. Even if we take this argument then we ought to realize that the latter has been forced to enter the negotiation phase because they have weakened by the American mil.
u don't know the real issue behind Ghabizai /Mehmood issue, so with little knowledge, it's better tokeep quite or get complete and authentic info.
Can't agree more .
Mr Achazai needs to gain more knowledge on issues pertaining to negotiation and crisis management. In the jargon of the latter we have reached the "ripe moment" and certainly the "ripening process" was brutal, to say the least.
By withdrawing the military from FATA, the Taliban would gain much more strength than what we perceive. We saw lot of euphoria after an inFAMOUS deal with the Swat chapter was cracked but after exactly 71 days the military was called-in to evict the enemies of freedom and liberty. MKA, Maj- Gen (now Lt gen) Tariq Khan did not do table talk but used his troops to good effect against TTP. Same goes for Buner and other areas.
The rest has been covered in the piece, but never ever think of negotiation from a weak position. Learn from Rajapakhasy and Thatcher.
One thing such arguments (as in from Achakzai) ignore is that they assume moving in and out entire divisions is like packing a bag and taking your car to Lahore. Moving division level troops, abandoning forward sector HQs and posts is a big task that cannot be reversed.
Achakzai 's formula is workable. Tribal feuds and vendetta are products of the socio-political context of tribal system. Achakzai could not resolve that because this is something which the state alter through its cultural and economic development policies. Sadly, Pakistan has neglected this dimension of life in Pakhtunkhaw and Baluchsitan. The issue of Taliban is a distinct one and could not be compared to tribal feuds. Who sponsor and nurture extremism are known to everyone and probably Achakzai had those centers in mind when he gave this proposal. He is 100 percent right. You have issued just another ISPR statement. Establishment cannot tolerate true voices like that Mahmmod Khan Achakzai.