Rupee at fresh record low against dollar
Increased dollar demand for import payments, especially of oil was the main reason for the decline on Tuesday.
KARACHI:
The rupee fell to a record low on Tuesday and ended at 86.22/28 to the dollar, compared with Monday’s close of 86.10/14.
President of the Pakistan Foreign Exchange Dealers Association, Malik Bostan said that increased dollar demand for import payments, especially of oil was the main reason for the decline on Tuesday. He also informed that public buying had been heavy the same day, with 60 per cent traded dollars going into the bank and the 40 per cent being utilised in public dealing. Earlier this ratio had been 90 per cent as against 10 per cent respectively.
He said the rupee had traded as low as 86.25. Meanwhile, he said that an earlier factor such as the Hajj season was going to remain in the spotlight until the pilgrimage was performed. The rupee has lost 1.1 per cent this year, after falling 6.17 per cent in 2009.
Outgoing president of Korangi Association of Trade and Industry, Razzak Hashim Paracha said that he continues to see the rupee under pressure for a while. The growing uncertainty has the local public panicking over their investments, he said.
“In the international market we see gold as an alternative investment medium and a safe haven, but in Pakistan we do not have any means to store this form of investment safely. For example, if I purchase a healthy amount of gold, I cannot keep it at home without the constant worry that it may get stolen one day whereas we haven’t developed a secure locker system or any other means as yet in this country,” he explained. Paracha went on to say that dollars was the preferred means to store money as “it’s just paper and can be easily kept in a bank” and therefore demand was high for the greenback as safe haven.
He went on to say that businessmen were also feeling pressurised as not only were purchasing foreign goods becoming more expensive for them, but internally, Pakistan’s monetary policy is directly linked to inflation- which is a cause of worry for all traders.
He said that if traders hike the prices of products in the country to keep afloat with an expensive dollar, then inflation is going to rise further. “In Pakistan, as inflation is rising so is the discount rate. Therefore, borrowing capital to invest into businesses is also going to be more expensive” he said. The entire economy has been badly affected, he added.
Muzzamil Aslam, economist at JS Global Capital Limited said that import payments was the main reason for rupee being under pressure as more was being imported into the country after the devastation caused by the floods to local resources and crops.
Furthermore, he said that Pakistan’s current account was already in deficit which meant that not enough was being exported to bring dollars into the country.
He said that inflation was also playing a pivotal role in the rupee being under pressure as all peer trading partners such as the United Kingdom had also witnessed inflation- though very slight as compared to Pakistan. This meant prices had also gone up in the international market, thereby Pakistani importers need even more money to pay for imported products. Aslam expected the local currency to lose value by a further two rupees against the dollar per annum.
In the money market, overnight rates ended flat at 10 per cent, unchanged from Monday’s close and dealers said the next inflow amounting to Rs8 billion ($92.7 million) were scheduled for Friday.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 29th, 2010.
The rupee fell to a record low on Tuesday and ended at 86.22/28 to the dollar, compared with Monday’s close of 86.10/14.
President of the Pakistan Foreign Exchange Dealers Association, Malik Bostan said that increased dollar demand for import payments, especially of oil was the main reason for the decline on Tuesday. He also informed that public buying had been heavy the same day, with 60 per cent traded dollars going into the bank and the 40 per cent being utilised in public dealing. Earlier this ratio had been 90 per cent as against 10 per cent respectively.
He said the rupee had traded as low as 86.25. Meanwhile, he said that an earlier factor such as the Hajj season was going to remain in the spotlight until the pilgrimage was performed. The rupee has lost 1.1 per cent this year, after falling 6.17 per cent in 2009.
Outgoing president of Korangi Association of Trade and Industry, Razzak Hashim Paracha said that he continues to see the rupee under pressure for a while. The growing uncertainty has the local public panicking over their investments, he said.
“In the international market we see gold as an alternative investment medium and a safe haven, but in Pakistan we do not have any means to store this form of investment safely. For example, if I purchase a healthy amount of gold, I cannot keep it at home without the constant worry that it may get stolen one day whereas we haven’t developed a secure locker system or any other means as yet in this country,” he explained. Paracha went on to say that dollars was the preferred means to store money as “it’s just paper and can be easily kept in a bank” and therefore demand was high for the greenback as safe haven.
He went on to say that businessmen were also feeling pressurised as not only were purchasing foreign goods becoming more expensive for them, but internally, Pakistan’s monetary policy is directly linked to inflation- which is a cause of worry for all traders.
He said that if traders hike the prices of products in the country to keep afloat with an expensive dollar, then inflation is going to rise further. “In Pakistan, as inflation is rising so is the discount rate. Therefore, borrowing capital to invest into businesses is also going to be more expensive” he said. The entire economy has been badly affected, he added.
Muzzamil Aslam, economist at JS Global Capital Limited said that import payments was the main reason for rupee being under pressure as more was being imported into the country after the devastation caused by the floods to local resources and crops.
Furthermore, he said that Pakistan’s current account was already in deficit which meant that not enough was being exported to bring dollars into the country.
He said that inflation was also playing a pivotal role in the rupee being under pressure as all peer trading partners such as the United Kingdom had also witnessed inflation- though very slight as compared to Pakistan. This meant prices had also gone up in the international market, thereby Pakistani importers need even more money to pay for imported products. Aslam expected the local currency to lose value by a further two rupees against the dollar per annum.
In the money market, overnight rates ended flat at 10 per cent, unchanged from Monday’s close and dealers said the next inflow amounting to Rs8 billion ($92.7 million) were scheduled for Friday.
Published in The Express Tribune, September 29th, 2010.