In a muddle: Unemployment creeps up but drops on quarterly basis

Survey shows 6.3% of the workforce was jobless in January-March quarter.

Unemployment in the country increased marginally to 6.3% for the Jan-March quarter 2012-13, compared to 6.1% for the same quarter of 2010-11.

However, despite a deepening energy crisis and slowing economy, the unemployment rate in Pakistan has decreased in the third quarter of the current fiscal year, compared to the previous quarter, putting a question mark over credibility of official statistics.

According to the Labour Force Survey of Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, joblessness in the country dropped to 6.3% of the workforce in January-March quarter compared to 6.5% in October-December 2012.

The unemployment rate raises eyebrows with many asking whether it depicts a true picture of people without work as well as poverty in the country as 25.6% of the employed workforce is shown as “contributing family workers”, who are neither paid in cash nor in kind, according to the government’s own definitions.

Compared to January-March 2011, unemployment has, however, increased. In that quarter, joblessness stood at 6.1% compared to 6.3% in January-March 2013. No labour force survey was conducted in fiscal year 2011-12.

The figures came amid a worsening energy crisis this year as many factories either shut down or stopped work because of gas and electricity shortages. Small and medium enterprises, which cannot afford alternative energy arrangements, were the worst hit by the gas and electricity outages.

Talking to The Express Tribune, PBS officials dismissed outright any talk of manipulation of figures and stressed that seasonal factors had played a critical role in bringing down the unemployment rate. According to them, absence of a social security network was also the main reason behind low unemployment in the country.

The Labour Force Survey shows a decline in unemployment in urban areas where 8.8% of the workforce was out of work in the third quarter compared to 10.1% in the preceding quarter. Compared to the corresponding quarter of 2010-11, unemployment decreased from 9.1%. The reduction came despite a worst energy crisis in all major urban areas.

In rural areas, however, unemployment increased slightly to 5.1% from 5%.

Official definition of employment says that all people aged above 10 who work at least one hour per week are employed persons regardless of whether they are paid employees or self-employed.

In the total workforce, the agriculture sector employed 42.1% of the workers in January-March 2013, lower than 44.2% in the corresponding period of 2010-11. Still, it remains the largest sector in terms of job creation.

The services sector was the second largest that employed 35.2% of the employed workforce followed by the industry that employed 22.7%.

Published in The Express Tribune, June 2^nd, 2013.

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