Post-withdrawal scenario in Afghanistan

Fear in Kabul is Taliban will be encouraged by developments in Pakistan, US withdrawal to lay siege to Kabul again.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai, finding himself a little isolated with both the US and Pakistan favouring talks with the Taliban, will be in India next week for talks with the government here in what will be his second visit in six months. A first on his agenda will be to persuade India to step up the defence cooperation with Afghanistan and move from the training and “soft” stage to, as the Afghan envoy to India said, “lethal and non-lethal” defence assistance.

The urgency is reflected in the rushed visit, particularly as President Karzai’s second term comes to an end with the pullout of the US troops from Afghanistan in 2014. Longevity for his government seems to be directly hinged to Indian military support; regional dialogue between different players — the list including Russia, China, Iran, India, Pakistan and Saarc itself — for a resolution aimed at keeping the Taliban at bay or, at least, preventing it from emerging as the key player; and strengthening trade initiatives by upgrading the Chabahar port and concluding the trilateral agreement between India, Afghanistan and Iran.

Sources said that Afghanistan has been urging New Delhi to upgrade its defence assistance to troops on the ground, or more specifically, aircraft in the air. India has been openly reluctant to do this, given the resistance at home, but a worried President Karzai has not given up, and hopes to persuade the UPA government to increase the level of assistance to cover more sophisticated military equipment and some level of air power support. The Taliban are virtually breathing down the Karzai government’s neck, and it is seriously worried about survival after the withdrawal of US troops. Currently, talks between Afghanistan and the US are about the kind of support that will be left behind, in terms of the number of troops, infrastructure and military hardware in Afghanistan. President Karzai has spoken earlier of nine US bases in Afghanistan after the withdrawal.

The elections in Pakistan have not given any comfort to President Karzai. More so, as even the prime minister-designate of Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif, is clear that his government will initiate a dialogue with the Taliban. The emergence of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf and Imran Khan as a key player in the crucial province of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, too, does not provide solace to the government in Kabul, as he has been very clear through the electoral campaign about beginning serious and goal-driven talks with the Taliban. The unvoiced fear in Kabul is that the Taliban, still a cohesive force despite the long war on terror, will be encouraged by the developments in Pakistan and withdrawal of the US troops to lay siege to Kabul once again. And this time with little resistance unless other countries in the region realise, as the Afghan envoy put it, “the common need to drive out terrorism and restore stability and peace”. The only problem is that while all the stakeholders are for this, there are at least two important players — Pakistan and the US — that believe this will come not from isolating but from talking to the Taliban. Iran and India are probably the only countries in the immediate vicinity of Afghanistan which are as unhappy as the government in Kabul about this option.

The UPA government has been dragging its feet on the Chabahar port although it is officially now committed to it. It is not in a position to upgrade military assistance to Afghanistan, at least insofar as direct involvement of its soldiers is concerned. In fact, no government in New Delhi will get the people’s mandate to fight someone else’s war in another country. Secondly, direct intervention will bring terrorism to India’s door and that is a risk that no government is willing to take. And third, no one will say it but it is a silent fact of political diplomacy, that the Karzai government without the support of the US is like a tiny boat adrift and no country will have the time, resources or the interest in bringing it to shore, India included.

At the same time, no one in New Delhi or for that matter in Kabul, believes that Pakistan will be in a position to convince the Taliban to have a minimal say in government at best, and in return, end terrorism and restore peace in the region. The real fear here is that the “deal” will work to the advantage of the Taliban. All in all, a mess in which all the headless chickens are hopping around, without a plan or an idea or a strategy that could actually work.

Published in The Express Tribune, May 18^th, 2013.