A year after monsoon revolution in Bangladesh

Following the regime change in Bangladesh on August 5, 2024 as a result of the monsoon revolution, the Awami League stands banned. Former prime minister Sheikh Hasina's palace has now been converted into a museum reflecting a 'hall of shame'. However, this paradigm shift after August 5, 2025 doesn't mean that the country is out of crisis. In fact, the caretaker regime of Dr Mohammad Yunus is sinking deeper and deeper into the quagmire of crises and a consensus on political reforms continues to elude it.

Few years ago, a very few people would have imagined that Hasina who remained the Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 1996-2001 and then from 2009-2024 would be booted out of power as a result of a popular uprising. When in June 2024, students' protests got an impetus on the issue of quota system, Hasina ordered security forces to crush the uprising, leading to 1,400 deaths. On August 4, 2024 when the movement against her rule was at its peak, more than 100,000 protesters had planned to storm her palace. On that occasion, Bangladesh Army's Chief of Staff Wakar-Uz-Zaman suggested to Hasina to either face demonstrators or leave the country. She took the second option. Demonstrators stormed her palace after she had fled in a helicopter to India. The rest is history.

A year after the monsoon revolution, it is time to analyse how Bangladesh can move on the road to genuine democracy through transparent and credible elections and transfer of power to elected representatives. Dr Yunus had pledged to reform Bangladesh so that the damage the Hasina government did to democracy by politicising bureaucracy, judiciary and police is repaired. It is an uphill task which can be accomplished if those who paved the way for the monsoon revolution remain united. Several commissions have been established by the caretaker government to reform the state institutions that were ruined during more than 15 years of Hasina's rule.

According to August 5, 2019 issue of Dhaka Tribune, "Across city streets and village squares, the people's uprising dismantled a status quo held together by fear, corruption, and silence. Expectations soared: justice would be swift, reforms bold, and governance reborn in transparency. Yet one year later, the promises of the revolution remain suspended between hope and heartbreak. From courtrooms to currency markets, the nation grapples with the debris of its transformation. Thousands remain entangled in fabricated charges tied to the July murder cases, buried under legal chaos and extortion claims. Economic turmoil deepens, elections stall, and mob violence resurfaces with worrying regularity." A year after the monsoon revolution, Bangladesh is still grappling with political polarisation and unrest. There is economic meltdown as Bangladesh's foreign exchange reserves which stood around $35 billion two years ago have dwindled to $20.5 billion as of August 2025.

A new political party, National Citizen's Party (NCP), led by Nahid Islam, the moving spirit behind the monsoon revolution, has been launched with an ambition to break the traditional mode of politics and provide the people a break from years of corruption and nepotism. It is yet to be seen if NCP, led by youths, is able to bring a paradigm shift in the politics of Bangladesh because both Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party have been tested several times and carry the baggage of political oppression, bad governance, corruption and nepotism.

As rightly pointed by Dhaka Tribune, "Despite repeated pledges from Prof Yunus for sweeping legal reform, progress remains limited. Key commitments such as the creation of a neutral case review board, digitization of police records, and decriminalization of political protest have yet to materialize. Judicial backlogs persist, with over 80% of July-related cases still pending trial, contributing to a climate of prolonged legal uncertainty. Civil liberties, once promised as the revolution's first gift, now teeter on a tightrope. The public discourse is increasingly cautious shaped not by freedom, but by fear."

Amidst cautious optimism echoing the pledges made by Dr Yunus to ensure free and fair elections along with reforms to restructure state institutions, one needs to analyse and examine the current situation from three positions.

First, Awami League despite its present declining position is not a dead horse. But the future of Sheikh Hasina appears doomed given the several cases of extrajudicial killings and corruption against her. For a long period of time, Awami League will have to survive without power particularly when it has been banned by the caretaker government and can only contest the upcoming general election with a new name. The legacy of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman and Sheikh Hasina is almost over. Other traditional parties like BNP and Jamaat-i-Islamai had been in power in the past and voters will think before voting for the two parties again. That leaves only NCP as an alternate, but it will have to strengthen its rank and file before contesting the next election.

Second, "excessive use of force by the Hasina regime to quell the student uprising" is replacing "the 1971 War atrocities by Pakistan" as political narrative. The museum opened in Dhaka at Ganabhaban, former palace of Sheikh Hasina, tends to expose atrocities committed against protesting students by the previous regime. Named as 'revolution museum', Hasina's former residence depicts images of extrajudicial killings, firing against protesting students and Hasina's ruthless mode of governance. It is another matter how the 'revolution museum' can replace 'war museums' in different parts of Bangladesh, reflecting the images of military operation in 1971 in the then East Pakistan. But, for the opponents of Hasina, it is in their interest to continue to expose atrocities and massive human rights violations.

Finally, taking the name of Pakistan in Bangladesh was not possible until the monsoon revolution changed things. It is now expected that Pakistani flags will be displayed in Dhaka and elsewhere on the occasion of Pakistan's Independence Day coming up on August 14. It would be a paradigm shift in the Pakistan-Bangladesh relations.