A different Naya Pakistan
Though people were tired of the previous government, exasperation was not enough to bring about revolutionary change.
The writer is the Chairperson of the History Department at Forman Christian College, Lahore
Last week, I compared the 2013 elections with the 1970 elections, in terms of expected turnout and significance, and the comparison had held fast. The turnout on May 11 was over 60 per cent, nearly the same as in 1970, and the eagerness, excitement and hope people voted with exemplified the importance of this election for them.
However, while in 1970, people voted for “change” both in East and West Pakistan, this time round, people did not do so, and this is a very interesting development. Almost every Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) worker I met over the last few weeks was adamant that they will win over 100 seats, and the leaders, too, were equally sure that their mass mobilisation efforts will bear fruit. But this was not to be. Instead, the cold analysis of veteran commentators that the PTI will only win 30-odd seats has come true. Why? While the exact analysis of voter turnout, perception and trends will take weeks to come out, some preliminary comments can certainly be made. First, whereas people in Pakistan were indeed tired of the previous government on various counts, the exasperation was not so much as to bring about a revolutionary change. Pakistan might have been ill-governed, but some policies of the outgoing government did help certain classes of people, and the Benazir Income Support Programme will remain one of the hallmarks of the outgoing government. Secondly, Pakistanis were frustrated, but also cynical. Without clear policies (the PTI had good ideas, but no clear policies on how to achieve those ideas), their appeal to the electorate was always limited. I met several people at the polls who changed their mind at the last minute because even though they “liked” the ideas of the PTI, they did not know “how” the PTI was going achieve those lofty goals. Thirdly, the PTI failed to realise that there are youth beyond the urban middle classes. As one friend of mine stated: “Pakistan is not one big upper middle-class drawing room. If it (the PTI) chooses to learn from this, then I assure you that change is inevitable.”
This comment reminds me of a comment someone made about the Left, which I often quote: “That you need to afford it to be Left.” This self-explanatory comment also explains the appeal of the PTI, which was comfortable for the middle classes to accept and follow, but for people who are planning their day-to-day survival, grand hopes of change only go so far. Fourthly, it shows that despite the whole PTI campaign, and large parts of the PPP campaign, against Nawaz Sharif, the Nawaz wing of the PML still remains a very popular party. Just this fact should make us stop and think.
There are lots of reasons why the PML-N won, and I hope some academic analysis of the polls further delves into them soon, but let me highlight a couple of them. First and foremost, Nawaz Sharif is pragmatic. This is, in my opinion, his greatest strength and weakness. Strength because he can assess the situation and take decisions accordingly, and weakness because people are not always sure what he is really thinking. Take the example of the Taliban: I am sure that Nawaz is not going to let them grow and take over, but am unsure about how he would deal with them. Secondly, Nawaz is going to be good for the business community. Being a businessman himself, he clearly knows, in the words of Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid!” So, if he focuses on the economy with a good team of party specialists as well as, and this is important, independent technocrats, things might turn around. His statement on good relations with India, especially with regard to trade, are certainly good omens. And thirdly, Nawaz is centre-right. While I might not prescribe to this title, the reality in the country is that a large majority of the country is conservative and cannot be ignored. The recent British Council poll of young Pakistanis also showed that a large majority of the country is deeply conservative, and so this factor cannot be dismissed. It might be counter-intuitive, but I think that we really need to give expression to this conservative majority if Pakistan is to move forward. This conservatism tempered by pragmatism and with a focus on the economy is the panacea Pakistan needs. Congratulations and good luck Nawaz Sharif, you will need it!
Published in The Express Tribune, May 14th, 2013.
However, while in 1970, people voted for “change” both in East and West Pakistan, this time round, people did not do so, and this is a very interesting development. Almost every Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) worker I met over the last few weeks was adamant that they will win over 100 seats, and the leaders, too, were equally sure that their mass mobilisation efforts will bear fruit. But this was not to be. Instead, the cold analysis of veteran commentators that the PTI will only win 30-odd seats has come true. Why? While the exact analysis of voter turnout, perception and trends will take weeks to come out, some preliminary comments can certainly be made. First, whereas people in Pakistan were indeed tired of the previous government on various counts, the exasperation was not so much as to bring about a revolutionary change. Pakistan might have been ill-governed, but some policies of the outgoing government did help certain classes of people, and the Benazir Income Support Programme will remain one of the hallmarks of the outgoing government. Secondly, Pakistanis were frustrated, but also cynical. Without clear policies (the PTI had good ideas, but no clear policies on how to achieve those ideas), their appeal to the electorate was always limited. I met several people at the polls who changed their mind at the last minute because even though they “liked” the ideas of the PTI, they did not know “how” the PTI was going achieve those lofty goals. Thirdly, the PTI failed to realise that there are youth beyond the urban middle classes. As one friend of mine stated: “Pakistan is not one big upper middle-class drawing room. If it (the PTI) chooses to learn from this, then I assure you that change is inevitable.”
This comment reminds me of a comment someone made about the Left, which I often quote: “That you need to afford it to be Left.” This self-explanatory comment also explains the appeal of the PTI, which was comfortable for the middle classes to accept and follow, but for people who are planning their day-to-day survival, grand hopes of change only go so far. Fourthly, it shows that despite the whole PTI campaign, and large parts of the PPP campaign, against Nawaz Sharif, the Nawaz wing of the PML still remains a very popular party. Just this fact should make us stop and think.
There are lots of reasons why the PML-N won, and I hope some academic analysis of the polls further delves into them soon, but let me highlight a couple of them. First and foremost, Nawaz Sharif is pragmatic. This is, in my opinion, his greatest strength and weakness. Strength because he can assess the situation and take decisions accordingly, and weakness because people are not always sure what he is really thinking. Take the example of the Taliban: I am sure that Nawaz is not going to let them grow and take over, but am unsure about how he would deal with them. Secondly, Nawaz is going to be good for the business community. Being a businessman himself, he clearly knows, in the words of Bill Clinton, “It’s the economy, stupid!” So, if he focuses on the economy with a good team of party specialists as well as, and this is important, independent technocrats, things might turn around. His statement on good relations with India, especially with regard to trade, are certainly good omens. And thirdly, Nawaz is centre-right. While I might not prescribe to this title, the reality in the country is that a large majority of the country is conservative and cannot be ignored. The recent British Council poll of young Pakistanis also showed that a large majority of the country is deeply conservative, and so this factor cannot be dismissed. It might be counter-intuitive, but I think that we really need to give expression to this conservative majority if Pakistan is to move forward. This conservatism tempered by pragmatism and with a focus on the economy is the panacea Pakistan needs. Congratulations and good luck Nawaz Sharif, you will need it!
Published in The Express Tribune, May 14th, 2013.