Situationer: Election or secession?

Most threatened are those Baloch nationalists who had boycotted the last elections and are now taking the risk in giving yet another, if not the last, try to the parliamentary course. This has invited the ire of what a leading analyst described as “the secessionists”. Akhtar Mengal, the BNP chief, has been confined to his home. He is being threatened by parts of his own tribe led by his cousin who has joined hands with Sannaullah Zehri. The PML-N provincial chief has accused Mengal of orchestrating the brutal murder of his son, brother and nephew and protested with Nawaz Sharif for giving too much importance to the BNP.

The plight of the National Party (NP) led by Dr Malik Baloch and Hasil Bizenjo is also quite precarious as it faces a serious threat from the radicals. It is, however, better placed than Akhtar Mengal’s BNP and is expecting to emerge as a larger parliamentary group from the Baloch constituencies. The heirs of Akbar Bugti are at cross purposes, with Brahamdagh Bugti bent upon disrupting the elections and security forces not letting Shah Zain Bugti or any other clan member enter Dera Bugti. In an adjoining constituency, Kohlu, if Changez Marri, son of Khair Bux Marri, is in the electoral fray his other brother, Hyrbyair Marri, is leading a Baloch militia to “liberate Balochistan”.


The Baloch political scene looks quite chaotic in the absence of a unifying leadership. And this situation is being exploited by the Baloch militants to fuel further anarchy. These militant outfits are in fact lending a helping hand in encouraging an internecine tribal warfare that could engulf the whole of Balochistan. This has even divided the leading nationalist tribal chiefs’ families. In such a muddled situation, the poll results will be too confusing with each group pocketing no more than a couple of seats with the exception of NP which could end up gaining an upper hand.

The competition in the Pakhtun belt is, however, fierce between the aggressively nationalist Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) and a divided house of JUI blaming each other for betraying the cause of Quran and Sunnah.  The PkMAP president Mehmood Khan Achakzai may win from Quetta where he is being backed by PML-N having the backing of whatever is left of the few thousand Punjabis in the city, but will face a tough battle in his ancestral hometown.

The PkMAP is making a strong ethnic claim for 50 percent share in the province if their demand for a separate province in the southern Balochistan (former British Balochistan) or merging the Pakhtun-belt of the province with Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is not met. Being a pro-Karzai party it is locked in an ideological battle with pro-Taliban factions of JUI-F, the Shirani and ideological groups.

The parties with national appeal, such as the PPP-P and PML-N, may win a couple of seats where they have strong tribal chiefs as their candidates. The PPPP, which was better placed than the PML-N, is now a divided house with the defection of Raisanis to PML-N that has struck political deals with the nationalist parties, including NP, BNP and PkMAP. Not astonishingly PML-Q has almost disappeared as most of the PML-Q legislators are now contesting as independents or have defected to other parties. The PTI will be lucky to win a seat or two as opposed to PML-N that may attract most of the independents.

The turnout will be quite low in the small towns of Baloch areas under greater threat from the Baloch militants. However, it will vary in rural areas where tribal chieftains have enough resources to mobilize otherwise captive voters. It is expected to be better in the Pakhtun belt. The threat against the electoral process is real from the Baloch militant groups and they may succeed in getting elections postponed in over half a dozen constituencies. (Imtiaz.safma@gmail.com )

Published in The Express Tribune, May 6^th, 2013.