“In the past five years, we had four SBP governors, five finance ministers, six FBR chairmen and seven finance secretaries. How can anyone expect any policy continuity with that sort of turnover?” says Husain. DESIGN: FAIZAN DAWOOD
When it comes to Pakistan’s economic policy, the Pakistan Business Council (PBC), a think tank/advocacy group, is quickly discovering that achieving consensus on principles is far easier than getting anything done.
At the second Pakistan Economic Forum (PEF), held at the Karachi School of Business on Wednesday, some of the country’s leading academics, businessmen, as well as both current and former policymakers gathered to discuss what they felt should be the policy agenda for the country. Strikingly absent from the discussion was any semblance of partisan divide or ideological disagreements.
Yet even more striking was the fact that the second Pakistan Economic Agenda, which the PBC will be putting forward as its recommendation, is largely the same as the first agenda it put forth two years ago, since so little has changed in how the Government of Pakistan manages the economy.
The forum is supposedly modelled after the World Economic Forum, which is held every year in Switzerland. Yet, unlike Davos, the PEF consisted less of panel discussions of eminent professionals and experts and more of speeches based on the policy research that the panellists had conducted. That format left little room for discussion and debate among participants as well as between panellists themselves.
Perhaps the closest to a heated debate was a disagreement on the subject of water resource management, where one of the panellists, Bashir A Chandio, vehemently opposed the stance taken by the rest of his fellow panellists: ie, Sindh is the worst offender when it comes to inefficient use of water resources.
Najeeb Suleman, who delivered the panel’s majority opinion, was vehement in his defence of the findings, and scathing in his criticism of the government’s efforts to manage the country’s water resources, including its inability to negotiate with India on the basis of technical research. “Pakistan is too dumb to negotiate a second water treaty. India has 25,000 highly qualified technical experts advising their government. We have three jokers.”
Six policy areas came under discussion at the forum. Aside from water management, there were panel discussions on education policy, energy, macroeconomic stability, social protection, and regional trade.
The lack of political debate became most obvious during the discussion on social protection. Asad Sayeed, an economist associated with the Collective for Social Science Research, a left-leaning think tank, pointed out that virtually every political party – including the right-wing Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf – accepted the need for a social safety net based on income transfers, an idea initiated in Pakistan by the left-leaning Pakistan Peoples Party.
The highlight of the whole event came during the macroeconomic stability discussion, when a powerhouse panel met to discuss the overall management of the economy. The panel included former SBP Governors Ishrat Husain and Salim Raza, former federal finance minister Shaukat Tarin, interim Sindh Finance Minister Shabbar Zaidi, economists Sakib Sherani and Sayem Ali, Standard Chartered Pakistan CEO Mohsin Nathani, economic journalist Khurram Husain, and others.
While commenting on Pakistan’s depleting foreign reserves, Ishrat Husain said that: “Since the foreign exchange market runs on sentiments, it is up to the State Bank of Pakistan to adopt such policies in the coming weeks where importers and exporters are assured that foreign exchange rates will remain stable. If they feel that exchange rates will remain stable, they will not opt for hoarding.”
During that panel, Tarin gave an account of how he managed the negotiations on the landmark seventh National Finance Commission award, which distributed an unprecedented amount of financial authority to the provinces. He admitted to several mistakes on his part, including not placing enough conditions on the provinces to improve their own capacity to competently spend the additional money they were being given.
But the government’s lack of seriousness was captured best in two quotes from that panel. Zaidi, who is currently heading Sindh’s finances, said: “In Pakistan, we tend to have finance managers, not finance ministers, capable of making the tough choices.”
His comment was then supplemented by the ever-succinct Ishrat Husain: “In the past five years, we had four SBP governors, five finance ministers, six FBR chairmen and seven finance secretaries. How can anyone expect any policy continuity with that sort of turnover?”
Published in The Express Tribune, April 18th, 2013.
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@waqar khan: The barrages are used for generating electricity not for using Pakistan"s share of water. Every single time Pakistan has ugone o international arbitration on IWT, it has lost the case.
Indus basin existed much before Indus Water Treaty,the historical and geographical use of Indus water system due to typical layout,always favoured the people of Indus valley(current Pakistan). It is not matter of counting number of rivers,are you allowing Bangladesh and Nepal to use their genuine share of water? A commonsense example is of Nile River,which originates from Ethiopea and Sudan but 90% water is used by Egypt. Since you have occupied Kashmir through illegal means,you now claim to be upper reparian,actually India should not get more than 10% of Indus System,you have built 50 barrages and hydro projects on even the three rivers given to Pakistan,your logic is another typical Indian bluff.
"Najeeb Suleman, who delivered the panel’s majority opinion, was vehement in his defence of the findings, and scathing in his criticism of the government’s efforts to manage the country’s water resources, including its inability to negotiate with India on the basis of technical research. “Pakistan is too dumb to negotiate a second water treaty. India has 25,000 highly qualified technical experts advising their government. We have three jokers.”
Not renegotiating maybe in your best interests though you do not realize it. The current IWT gives 80% of water to Pakostan and 20% to India. This is almost unprecedented anywhere else in the world. India agreed to these terms in 1960 under World Bank pressure due to economic challenges it was facing where it needed Wprld Bank loans at that time. If the IWT is renegotiated, India will almost certainly push for a 50-50 water usage and based on internaional norms, most likely get it. (Both countries have use of 3 rivers but India has the much smaller 3 rivers and Pakistan has the much bigger 3 rivers, so current division is not 50-50).
Sadly instead of realizing how lucky you are, your establishment tells you that India is stealing your water - which is what leads to such ideas of renegotiation. If you ask to renegotiate IWT, you maybe surprised how quickly India agrees.