Rahul and Bilawal
Rahul clearly carries more weight within the Congress party than Bilawal does in the PPP.
The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes widely for several newspapers in India
A great deal is spoken and written, at least in India, about the similarities between the Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and Pakistan Peoples Party heir-apparent Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari. But on close examination, there are more differences than similarities with, perhaps, the only common visible factor being that they both belong to the first families of their respective parties and have entered politics with a platinum spoon in their mouths. Both, however, have lost a parent in terror attacks in their respective countries, but have not allowed this to come in the way of their political ambitions.
The differences, though, are striking. One, of course, is the age factor, with Rahul being far older than Bilawal. Both are quiet and seemingly shy of the spotlight, although Rahul clearly carries more weight within the Congress party than Bilawal does in the PPP. This is directly to do with their powerful parents, with Congress President Sonia Gandhi personally backing Rahul for whatever job he seeks in the party or the government but Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari more reticent and reluctant to allow Bilawal full play at this stage. This is also said to be one of the reasons for Bilawal’s sudden departure for Dubai recently and a subsequent announcement that he will not campaign for the party in the forthcoming polls. Rahul, on the other hand, remains the chief although not a very successful campaigner for the Congress party.
Unlike Bilawal, Rahul is now in the big league. His much publicised address to the Confederation of Indian Industry was a big event and intended to get him the support of the big honchos before the elections. This particular space has been occupied by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has been wooing India Inc with vigour for months now. Significantly, Rahul crossed swords with Modi by saying that alienation of the minorities hurts India’s growth and reached out to industry for building a “brave, empowered India”. In a more direct presentation than he is known for, Rahul said, “the biggest danger is excluding people, including the poor, minorities and Dailits … Anger, hatred and prejudice do not help growth. If you alienate communities we all suffer.” Several honchos came out in praise and even the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) criticism was muted.
It is interesting that the first act of the political drama for the elections is being staged not in the villages but on the shining platform set up by India Inc. Although official announcements have not been made, Narendra Modi will be the BJP’s candidate for prime minister when the campaign begins in the right earnest. And although Rahul remains in denial mode, insisting that questions of becoming the prime minister or getting married are “irrelevant”, the Congress will definitely be looking at him to lead the electoral campaign.
Significantly, either of them can be the prime minister if their respective party gets at least 180 to 200 seats in parliament. Given the fact that allies like the Janata Dal(U) will not support Modi for prime minister, the BJP will need to get about 200 seats to meet the shortfall of 72 seats with the support of the other, more pliable, regional allies. Lesser numbers will make the support of the JD(U) essential to form the government, which in effect means that the BJP will have to choose a prime minister other than Modi. The Congress party, too, will need the same 180-200 seats for Rahul to become the prime minister. The allies will be willing to support him even if the Congress gets 160 seats, but Rahul himself will not be willing to lead a disparate, unstable coalition as his first venture in government.
Elections are a complicated business, as the South Asian people well know. In both Pakistan and India, the ruling parties have or are in the process of completing their five-year terms, but both face serious challenges posed by a dissatisfied and angry electorate. In Pakistan, the odds seem to be favouring the PML-N at this stage, while in India, the Congress is becoming increasingly defensive, although here it is still early and the situation remains fuzzy about whether the BJP or the regional parties will fill the space. Meanwhile, the media has decided that the contest is between Modi and Rahul and will be pitting them against each other with target rating point-driven ferocity as the elections approach.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2013.
The differences, though, are striking. One, of course, is the age factor, with Rahul being far older than Bilawal. Both are quiet and seemingly shy of the spotlight, although Rahul clearly carries more weight within the Congress party than Bilawal does in the PPP. This is directly to do with their powerful parents, with Congress President Sonia Gandhi personally backing Rahul for whatever job he seeks in the party or the government but Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari more reticent and reluctant to allow Bilawal full play at this stage. This is also said to be one of the reasons for Bilawal’s sudden departure for Dubai recently and a subsequent announcement that he will not campaign for the party in the forthcoming polls. Rahul, on the other hand, remains the chief although not a very successful campaigner for the Congress party.
Unlike Bilawal, Rahul is now in the big league. His much publicised address to the Confederation of Indian Industry was a big event and intended to get him the support of the big honchos before the elections. This particular space has been occupied by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has been wooing India Inc with vigour for months now. Significantly, Rahul crossed swords with Modi by saying that alienation of the minorities hurts India’s growth and reached out to industry for building a “brave, empowered India”. In a more direct presentation than he is known for, Rahul said, “the biggest danger is excluding people, including the poor, minorities and Dailits … Anger, hatred and prejudice do not help growth. If you alienate communities we all suffer.” Several honchos came out in praise and even the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) criticism was muted.
It is interesting that the first act of the political drama for the elections is being staged not in the villages but on the shining platform set up by India Inc. Although official announcements have not been made, Narendra Modi will be the BJP’s candidate for prime minister when the campaign begins in the right earnest. And although Rahul remains in denial mode, insisting that questions of becoming the prime minister or getting married are “irrelevant”, the Congress will definitely be looking at him to lead the electoral campaign.
Significantly, either of them can be the prime minister if their respective party gets at least 180 to 200 seats in parliament. Given the fact that allies like the Janata Dal(U) will not support Modi for prime minister, the BJP will need to get about 200 seats to meet the shortfall of 72 seats with the support of the other, more pliable, regional allies. Lesser numbers will make the support of the JD(U) essential to form the government, which in effect means that the BJP will have to choose a prime minister other than Modi. The Congress party, too, will need the same 180-200 seats for Rahul to become the prime minister. The allies will be willing to support him even if the Congress gets 160 seats, but Rahul himself will not be willing to lead a disparate, unstable coalition as his first venture in government.
Elections are a complicated business, as the South Asian people well know. In both Pakistan and India, the ruling parties have or are in the process of completing their five-year terms, but both face serious challenges posed by a dissatisfied and angry electorate. In Pakistan, the odds seem to be favouring the PML-N at this stage, while in India, the Congress is becoming increasingly defensive, although here it is still early and the situation remains fuzzy about whether the BJP or the regional parties will fill the space. Meanwhile, the media has decided that the contest is between Modi and Rahul and will be pitting them against each other with target rating point-driven ferocity as the elections approach.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2013.