The writer is a consulting editor with The Statesman and writes widely for several newspapers in India
The differences, though, are striking. One, of course, is the age factor, with Rahul being far older than Bilawal. Both are quiet and seemingly shy of the spotlight, although Rahul clearly carries more weight within the Congress party than Bilawal does in the PPP. This is directly to do with their powerful parents, with Congress President Sonia Gandhi personally backing Rahul for whatever job he seeks in the party or the government but Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari more reticent and reluctant to allow Bilawal full play at this stage. This is also said to be one of the reasons for Bilawal’s sudden departure for Dubai recently and a subsequent announcement that he will not campaign for the party in the forthcoming polls. Rahul, on the other hand, remains the chief although not a very successful campaigner for the Congress party.
Unlike Bilawal, Rahul is now in the big league. His much publicised address to the Confederation of Indian Industry was a big event and intended to get him the support of the big honchos before the elections. This particular space has been occupied by Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi, who has been wooing India Inc with vigour for months now. Significantly, Rahul crossed swords with Modi by saying that alienation of the minorities hurts India’s growth and reached out to industry for building a “brave, empowered India”. In a more direct presentation than he is known for, Rahul said, “the biggest danger is excluding people, including the poor, minorities and Dailits … Anger, hatred and prejudice do not help growth. If you alienate communities we all suffer.” Several honchos came out in praise and even the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) criticism was muted.
It is interesting that the first act of the political drama for the elections is being staged not in the villages but on the shining platform set up by India Inc. Although official announcements have not been made, Narendra Modi will be the BJP’s candidate for prime minister when the campaign begins in the right earnest. And although Rahul remains in denial mode, insisting that questions of becoming the prime minister or getting married are “irrelevant”, the Congress will definitely be looking at him to lead the electoral campaign.
Significantly, either of them can be the prime minister if their respective party gets at least 180 to 200 seats in parliament. Given the fact that allies like the Janata Dal(U) will not support Modi for prime minister, the BJP will need to get about 200 seats to meet the shortfall of 72 seats with the support of the other, more pliable, regional allies. Lesser numbers will make the support of the JD(U) essential to form the government, which in effect means that the BJP will have to choose a prime minister other than Modi. The Congress party, too, will need the same 180-200 seats for Rahul to become the prime minister. The allies will be willing to support him even if the Congress gets 160 seats, but Rahul himself will not be willing to lead a disparate, unstable coalition as his first venture in government.
Elections are a complicated business, as the South Asian people well know. In both Pakistan and India, the ruling parties have or are in the process of completing their five-year terms, but both face serious challenges posed by a dissatisfied and angry electorate. In Pakistan, the odds seem to be favouring the PML-N at this stage, while in India, the Congress is becoming increasingly defensive, although here it is still early and the situation remains fuzzy about whether the BJP or the regional parties will fill the space. Meanwhile, the media has decided that the contest is between Modi and Rahul and will be pitting them against each other with target rating point-driven ferocity as the elections approach.
Published in The Express Tribune, April 6th, 2013.
COMMENTS (25)
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Not sure where the writer got the impression that we Indians are discussing Bilawal at great length... Honestly very few people here have heard his name... Most of the ordinary Indians know Pakistan because of the cricketers or the beards threatening us (and launching an occasional attack - Mumbai etc.)
With all their faults the political leadership of India, inspite of charges of corruption, cannot dare to be seen having their families living outside India and going off on weekends at state expense to visit them. Sonia Gandhi an Italian by birth, had to give up her nationality to be accepted by people of India, unlike in Pakistan where scores amongst our political leaders hold foreign nationality and proudly claim to hold them. Time fate of Pakistan be decided by Pakistanis, otherwise we will continue to suffer.
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari more reticent and reluctant to allow Bilawal full play at this stage..................
Bilawal won't survive a day in PPP culture of sleaze, back stabbing, wheeling dealing, corruption and deception. Before a horse is allowed to run, the trainer puts it through all the training motions for a sufficient period of time. Bilawal is indeed very lucky, he will be trained by the leading professor in such a culture.
@Foreign Leg: I see what you mean; fair enough.
'A great deal is spoken and written, at least in India, about the similarities between the Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and Pakistan Peoples Party heir-apparent Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari'.
What nonsense! I read six newspapers daily, watch all the news channels, and this is the FIRST piece I've come across where Rahul has been compared to Bilawal!
The major denominator common in both is that they belong to parties with strong control of dynastic politics. However Bilawal unfortunately heads a party in seriuos decline in Pakistan,where as Rahul seems to have a better future. Looking in the far distance,we may find Bilawal returning to Pakistan as a self assuared leader,PPP has made it very difficult for the time bring.
Other than wasting space, what is the point of this article?
@Gary: Honestly, I am sick of the Congress government at the center. Apart from Chidambaram, all I see are a bunch of misfits who are unfit to govern. Even in the case of PC, he has failed miserably to stimulate the economy and seems content to raise more revenues from taxation to fund all the numerous Indira/Rajiv Gandhi schemes. . My feeling is that this election will be only about the economy. Congress has shown poor leadership skills in their current term and billions of dollars of investment (such as Posco, FDI in retail, etc.) are stuck simply due to a vacillating leadership. Plus 2013 will likely be a drought year. Congress has been twice lucky holding elections in the summer heat, so I expect the next elections to be in summer of 2014. . While I am open to BJP and have voted for them once in the past, I am not entirely comfortable with the cult around Modi. I hear it is extremely difficult for one to express critical opinion against him in Gujarat. I have no other objection towards him and especially not the oft used one. It is just that I dislike both cults and dynasties equally. Personally, I prefer someone as close to a centrist (center-right) position as possible. Let us see who the BJP finally projects as their PM candidate. . As far as Kejriwal and his AAP is concerned, again he seems to have a cult around him. Plus I am not entirely sure what his credentials are to run a government. I do not think he will have any significant effect in the next elections. While I am no fan of Anna either, he is right when he chose to be apolitical as corruption is something in common with all parties. What we need is a strong and autonomous institution (Lok Pal) to convict those who are corrupt. . If BJP wins, it need not necessarily be due to Modi as it can be due to the reasons I outlined earlier. . My state, Karnataka, is having assembly elections next month. Here I see a wave for the Congress due to utter mismanagement by the ruling BJP government. But Karnataka is known for voting one party to the assembly and another to parliament.
With no disrespect intended to the author, an article on a subject like this that is a complete non issue shows to me that people are simply running out of subjects to write on.
@Babloo: Interesting. Indira and Bhutto were contemporaries and Rajiv and Benazir were. Surprising that you hose to compare Bhutto too Nehru instead of Indira and Benazir to Indira instead of Rajiv. We're you keeping gender constant instead of timeline that they ruled?
Let me put it this way
Mr Nehru was a titan , Mr Bhutto in comparison , was not Mrs Indira gandhi was a titan, Benazir Bhutto was not similarly there is no comparison between Rahul and Bilawal.
The Congress party in India is a sad reflection of nepotism abd sycophancy at its very worst. All party leaders prostrate in front of Sonia, Rahul and Priyanka at every opportunity. They could never lead the party on their own. The system of granting tickets ensures only those loyal to the dynasty get in.
@Foreign Leg: "...I am willing to accept Sushma Swaraj ..."
How is she different from other politicians? In my opinion the opposition parties in general, and BJP in particular too failed the nation. People like Arvind & co did what apposition parties should have done. Think if BJP wins 2014, it's more likely due to Modi and not vice versa.
An apt title would have been a “A Tale of Two Losers”.
@Foreign Leg: Thanks. Hadn't gone anywhere. Just didn't have too much luck with geting my posts approved last couple of days. I enjoy your posts too. They are thoughtful, polite and always add to the discussion.
I agree of course that the comparison between the 2 scions are not relevant. Rahul lives in India not overseas, speaks Hindi and has travelled through the length and breadth of India - in 2nd class railway compartments as well. So he may not have accomplished anything and would be a terrible choice for a PM, in my opinion, but at least he understands India.
in a real democracy there should be dynastic politicians just as in europe the war heroes churchil and de gaul didn't have any of their children in office after them. it is a real shame that we have dynastic politicians in south asia.
We should not compare oranges with apple . Bilawal is just a 23 yrs old kid who knows nothing about Pakistan. He got this chairmanship as inheritance. He did not work for it. PPP could not find any other deserving candidate. This is just like ten yrs old is made Nawab after death of his father. This is totally wrong for the party. This party will split apart into different factions just like PML has been broken into different factions. There is no mechanism in the PPP where an ordinary worker could go all the way to the top. Bhutto family or Zardari thinks this is part of their estate. This is total political immaturity and a way for the downfall of the party. Basically it is matter of time.
You are comparing apples and oranges. Rahul Gandhi at the age of 25 (around 5 years after his father was assassinated) had a far lower profile than Bilawal Bhutto at the age of 25 (around 5 years after his mother was assassinated). Second, the connection of this op-ed with Bilawal is peripheral at best - it is just a roundabout way of bringing Narendra Modi back into the discussion, who seems to be doing an admirable job of providing journalists devoid of enough material to cover as a recurring topic of interest. Third, on the response from India.inc to the CII address, most of the feedback that I read was that Rahul Gandhi came across as idealistic, dreamy and ill-prepared. Quote: "He wants to change the political system and how it works which is an interesting thought. But the important part is execution about which he is vague or does not yet have answers," said Anjali Verma, economist at PhillipCapital. The fact is that Rahul Gandhi has been part of the system too long to not have answers. The absence of a concrete economic agenda is the issue that spooks industrialists. The problem with Rahul Gandhi is that he wants to take on Modi but he cannot because no Congress govt (Centre or State governments) is doing a better job, so he is still riding his luck on the Gandhi name without assuming responsibility for its fortunes, and hoping that the BJP will shoot itself in the foot or end up without enough allies in 2014. @ET - all relevant. Pls allow.
@gp65: Glad to see you back! Didn't realize Rahul's accomplishments(!) are minuscule until you pointed out. I guess comparing him to Bilawal makes him look like a revolutionary.
"Unlike Bilawal, Rahul is now in the big league."
Rahul has always been in the big league because of the dynasty he has been born in. There are no accomplishments that he can boast of. Some things to consider: - As a legislator, he has not come up with a single piece of legislator - As a senior member of ruling party, he has not taken responsibility for any ministry nor has he improved things in any state as CM, whereby we can see his performance - He led the Bihar and UP state election strategy and Congress fared poorly in both. - He has not successfully facilitated the passage of any bill in the parliament through backroom maneuvering (the kind of thing that people like Pranab da were relied on)
So what exactly has be accomplished that puts him in the big league? You maybe comfortable handing the reins of a country of 1.2 bilions to a person who has never held any job in his whole life. Many people may feel differently. We shall see in 2014.
"A great deal is spoken and written, at least in India, about the similarities between the Congress scion Rahul Gandhi and Pakistan Peoples Party heir-apparent Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari." You continue to mistake the rarified world of English media journalists and foreign policy mandarins as being representative of whole India. I know hardly anyone who is concerned wih Bilawal. What people in India are speaking about is the slowing economy and how to turn it around, IPL, corruption and Anna Hazare, the impact of oppression of Sri Lankan Tamils on Indian Tamils, high inflation that the country has seen in the last couple of years and so on.
It looks like you introduced Bilawal into the article because its a Pakistani site, otherwise it makes more sense to have written about the differences between Rahul and Modi. At this particular stage in Pakistan's elections Bilawal does not matter.
@Author: Modi is not the projected PM candidate for the (expected, but could be this year) 2014 elections. Yes, he seems to have a cult around him and he is the likely projected candidate at this moment and we all know how soon things change in Indian politics. With terrible economic management by the Congress, I think people are looking forward to a "Shining India" moment once again. For instance, FDI in Retail would have single-handedly taken India GDP growth over 8%. Personally, I still hope a reasonable face emerges and I am willing to accept Sushma Swaraj though I am discomforted by her closeness to the Bellary brothers. . Bilawal cannot hold a candle to Rahul. I hope Indians realize when I say this that end of the day whether we like him or not, Rahul could have subverted the current MMS administration and become the PM. Since I am no fan of dynastic politics, I hope Rahul takes a back-seat forever. When Warren Buffett wants his children to succeed on their own, it makes little sense for Rahul to cling to an inheritance.