White elephant?: Metro bus, more than just an election gimmick
It may be economically unviable, but it is still money spent for the people.
The buses are air-conditioned and relatively free from traffic congestion and subsequent delays. PHOTO: APP
LAHORE:
The mantra in political circles is that PML-N launched its election campaign on February 10 with the launch of the Metro Bus project in Lahore. The impact of the project, the reaction it got from supporters and critics alike, was probably exactly what the party was hoping for – visibility!
And as far as visibility goes, they couldn’t have hoped for something better than a 27 kilometre long bus lane with shiny red buses traversing some of the most congested areas of Lahore, which is by all means home turf for the Sharifs.
It is Pakistan’s first bus service of its kind and was completed in a record time of about eleven months. It is a project that has been directed at providing relief to the masses.
But the enhanced visibility of the project also means that it is open to criticism, scepticism and has been under the political and economic microscope of both supporters and detractors alike for about two weeks now. Whether the critics are proven right, or whether the PML-N is able to pull it off is something that cannot be predicted just yet, but I am sure both sides will be watching very closely.
I was in Lahore recently for the launch of Shahbaz Sharif’s flagship project. It was done with much fanfare and lots of money was thrown around and journalists, prominent businessmen and diplomats from all over the country were invited to attend the event, all at taxpayers’ expense of course.
The Metro Bus project is has invoked a mixed but very extreme response from the public, from political circles and also from economists. There is very little neutrality here, either people hate it, or they love it.
Let’s take a look at the positives of the project, as claimed by the Punjab government. The service covers a total of 27 kilometres of some of the most congested areas of Lahore and has 27 stops. The service is said to have the capacity to transport 12,000 passengers per hour in any one direction, at a very economical fare of just Rs20 per head, a flat rate for the entire trip.
The buses are air-conditioned and relatively free from traffic congestion and subsequent delays because – except for some intersections – because they have a dedicated track. The articulated buses run on diesel and have a capacity to seat 38 passengers, and standing room for about 115.
Opponents of course hate it, they say it is a drain on the exchequer like no other, that it won’t survive more than six months because it is subsidised. And they say that the actual cost of the project is Rs60b or even Rs90b. Critics say that cost over-runs have been brushed under the rug and it is just a political stunt.
Some of the hidden costs are said to be the one hundred Daewoo buses which were originally imported at a cost of Rs10 million for the project but then rendered useless because they run on a special kind of fuel mix which is not available in Pakistan.
Critics also challenge Shahbaz Sharif’s claim that the service will recover its cost in four and a half years. They base this on their claim that the government is subsidising the service to the Rs10 million per month, so how can it ever hope to recover the amount?
Critics say that the PML-N cannot afford to pay the subsidy beyond a certain time, and in the event the current setup is not re-elected, critics believe the new government will have no inclination to keep the project up and running. There is the usual refrain – not unjustified – that the buses will break down because of a lack of maintenance or become filthy and be vandalised. This is definitely a possibility but in this case it might not happen because the maintenance contract has been outsourced to a private Turkish company which has expertise in this in their own country.
Then there are critics who believe the Rs30 billion could have been better used elsewhere, for example to solve the energy crisis in Punjab. They do have a point. But they also have to understand that while Rs30 billion is a significant amount, it is miniscule when it comes to an issue like power. The average cost of setting up a 500MW coal fired power plant is $500 million to $600 million. So even if the entire amount had been directed to power, at best 250 to 300 megawatts would have been added to the system.
This would not have had any noticeable impact on the provinces power woes.
Right now, the claims made by the critics are based on their assumptions and their calculations, which could be correct. The claims being made by the Punjab government are similarly based on their own calculations, and their own assessment of how far they can afford to run the project.
My guess is that this is more than just an election stunt. Even if it is a money sink, the Punjab government will find a way to keep it running. While this may not be economically prudent, or even sustainable, they will do it, because anything else would be political suicide and give their opponents the kind of ammo they cannot afford. The biggest argument in favour of the government is that they did not have to do this; they could have just spent the money on their own mansions or perks. The ultimate beneficiary is the public.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 25th, 2013.
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The mantra in political circles is that PML-N launched its election campaign on February 10 with the launch of the Metro Bus project in Lahore. The impact of the project, the reaction it got from supporters and critics alike, was probably exactly what the party was hoping for – visibility!
And as far as visibility goes, they couldn’t have hoped for something better than a 27 kilometre long bus lane with shiny red buses traversing some of the most congested areas of Lahore, which is by all means home turf for the Sharifs.
It is Pakistan’s first bus service of its kind and was completed in a record time of about eleven months. It is a project that has been directed at providing relief to the masses.
But the enhanced visibility of the project also means that it is open to criticism, scepticism and has been under the political and economic microscope of both supporters and detractors alike for about two weeks now. Whether the critics are proven right, or whether the PML-N is able to pull it off is something that cannot be predicted just yet, but I am sure both sides will be watching very closely.
I was in Lahore recently for the launch of Shahbaz Sharif’s flagship project. It was done with much fanfare and lots of money was thrown around and journalists, prominent businessmen and diplomats from all over the country were invited to attend the event, all at taxpayers’ expense of course.
The Metro Bus project is has invoked a mixed but very extreme response from the public, from political circles and also from economists. There is very little neutrality here, either people hate it, or they love it.
Let’s take a look at the positives of the project, as claimed by the Punjab government. The service covers a total of 27 kilometres of some of the most congested areas of Lahore and has 27 stops. The service is said to have the capacity to transport 12,000 passengers per hour in any one direction, at a very economical fare of just Rs20 per head, a flat rate for the entire trip.
The buses are air-conditioned and relatively free from traffic congestion and subsequent delays because – except for some intersections – because they have a dedicated track. The articulated buses run on diesel and have a capacity to seat 38 passengers, and standing room for about 115.
Opponents of course hate it, they say it is a drain on the exchequer like no other, that it won’t survive more than six months because it is subsidised. And they say that the actual cost of the project is Rs60b or even Rs90b. Critics say that cost over-runs have been brushed under the rug and it is just a political stunt.
Some of the hidden costs are said to be the one hundred Daewoo buses which were originally imported at a cost of Rs10 million for the project but then rendered useless because they run on a special kind of fuel mix which is not available in Pakistan.
Critics also challenge Shahbaz Sharif’s claim that the service will recover its cost in four and a half years. They base this on their claim that the government is subsidising the service to the Rs10 million per month, so how can it ever hope to recover the amount?
Critics say that the PML-N cannot afford to pay the subsidy beyond a certain time, and in the event the current setup is not re-elected, critics believe the new government will have no inclination to keep the project up and running. There is the usual refrain – not unjustified – that the buses will break down because of a lack of maintenance or become filthy and be vandalised. This is definitely a possibility but in this case it might not happen because the maintenance contract has been outsourced to a private Turkish company which has expertise in this in their own country.
Then there are critics who believe the Rs30 billion could have been better used elsewhere, for example to solve the energy crisis in Punjab. They do have a point. But they also have to understand that while Rs30 billion is a significant amount, it is miniscule when it comes to an issue like power. The average cost of setting up a 500MW coal fired power plant is $500 million to $600 million. So even if the entire amount had been directed to power, at best 250 to 300 megawatts would have been added to the system.
This would not have had any noticeable impact on the provinces power woes.
Right now, the claims made by the critics are based on their assumptions and their calculations, which could be correct. The claims being made by the Punjab government are similarly based on their own calculations, and their own assessment of how far they can afford to run the project.
My guess is that this is more than just an election stunt. Even if it is a money sink, the Punjab government will find a way to keep it running. While this may not be economically prudent, or even sustainable, they will do it, because anything else would be political suicide and give their opponents the kind of ammo they cannot afford. The biggest argument in favour of the government is that they did not have to do this; they could have just spent the money on their own mansions or perks. The ultimate beneficiary is the public.
Published in The Express Tribune, February 25th, 2013.
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