By-elections result
What these results show is that anyone incautious enough to predict PML-N’s demise in Punjab was wildly premature.
On the surface, it is tempting to ascribe the results of a spate of by-elections in Punjab to an unstoppable Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) juggernaut. The party won most of the National Assembly and Punjab Assembly seats that were being contested, leading many to see an inevitable PML-N sweep of the province in the upcoming general elections.
There is some reason to doubt the wisdom of this analysis. All but one of the National Assembly seats was already held by the PML-N and for the seat they did pick up, their candidate had previously won the seat on a Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) ticket.
These results, therefore, are of limited value in reading the tea leaves before the next election. Simply holding on to seats that are already yours is not proof of increasing popularity. What these results do show is that anyone incautious enough to predict PML-N’s demise in the province was being wildly premature. We do not know yet if the party’s organisational structure in the province has improved, but it certainly hasn’t become any worse. PML-N still remains the likely victor in elections in Punjab but there is no guarantee that the party will best its performance in the 2008 elections. The party is still the best around in its ability to practice retail politics and fields candidates who know how to win elections. Whether that is enough to lead to a sweep in the province is yet to be determined.
PPP’s boasts, coming from Mian Manzoor Ahmed Watoo, that the party was on the verge of conquering Punjab have been proven hollow. The ruling party will still have to contend with the mighty PML-N and may even be bested by Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid. It is also too early to comment on the chances of Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI), with the one candidate backed by the party finishing second in Sahiwal. PTI will certainly be a player in Punjab but it will be confined to the role of the spoiler rather than the victor. On top of that, there are still about five months left before the elections, giving all parties a chance to up their ground game and assert themselves in the elections. More than half the National Assembly seats are from the Punjab so this will be the province to keep an eye on in upcoming months.
Published in The Express Tribune, December 8th, 2012.