Ploughing through : Bullish sentiment pulls KSE to all-time high
Becomes second stock market to breach previous record since global financial crisis.
KARACHI:
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, marked an historic day at Pakistan’s largest stock market. The Karachi bourse climbed to an all-time high, breaching the previous record of 15,676 points – achieved on April 18, 2008 – to close above the 15,700 points barrier. The bourse’s recovery to a new record comes after nearly a thousand days of trading activity.
After breaking through the previous high, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) becomes only the second stock market in the world to do so ever since the start of the global financial crisis, according to data provided by Lakson Investments. India’s BSE SENSEX is the only other index that breached its previous high in the period, reaching 21,005.0 points on November 5, 2010.
On Wednesday, the KSE benchmark 100-share index rose 0.41% or 63.92 points to close at 15,712.21 points. Trade volumes, however, dropped to 108 million shares compared with Tuesday’s tally of 140 million shares. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs4.20 billion.
Shares of 376 companies were traded on Wednesday. At the end of the day 186 stocks closed higher, 124 declined while 66 remained unchanged.
Jahangir Siddiqui & Company was the volume leader with 13.35 million shares gaining Rs0.56 to finish at Rs13.99. It was followed by Nishat Mills Limited with 4.57 million shares gaining Rs1.35 to close at Rs58.85 and Askari Bank with 4.32 million shares gaining Rs0.06 to close at Rs15.47.
Foreign institutional investors were buyers of Rs148.84 million and sellers of Rs236.41 million, according to data maintained by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited.
When contacted for comments by The Express Tribune, Raza Hamdani, investment analyst at Shajar Capital Pakistan, had some reservations about the development. He pointed out that newly-set record may not be as exciting for pundits as it may seem on the surface, drawing attention to the fact that the index’s high “is still considerably below the previous high witnessed in April 2008 in terms of market capitalisation.”
He pointed out that KSE’s current market capitalisation stands nearly 45% lower in dollar terms, as compared to levels in April 2008. Moreover, he said that analyses point to the fact that investors are far more risk-averse now, as compared to April 2008, which means that the index could have been trading a lot higher than it is currently.
“The market is trading forward at 6.7x price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to 10.5x in 2008 – signifying room for further appreciation,” he explained.
In the long term, Hamdani said that a single-digit inflation trend, stability on the external front, robust remittances and improving textile exports may provide room for further monetary easing; helping leveraged sectors and driving corporate earnings. These could help the index gain significantly by the end of this year, he said.
On the other hand, Farid Aliani, equity research analyst at BMA Capital, said that: “We believe that the healthy performance of the market is reflective of a positive fundamental shift driven by a better macroeconomic picture, as compared to last year.”
“International Monetary Fund (IMF) repayments are being made smoothly, without much strain on reserves, while export numbers are improving as well,” he continued.
Aliani reminded us that a further lowering in the discount rate, which has been the primary driver behind the recent rally, would incentivise shifting money from deposits earning interest at banks, to dividend-yielding stocks; especially in the oil and gas, fertiliser and power sectors.
To a question regarding trends in individuals’ participation in the stock market given the positive outlook, he said that the relaxation in capital gains tax rules had already invited retail investors to the market over the last nine months. He also informed us that individuals’ share in market participation has grown to 62% from 59% last year, and that he expects the trend to continue.
Aliani was more cautious about the long-term: he pointed out that impending payments worth $1.6 billion to the IMF may deplete the country’s foreign reserves and force Pakistan’s re-entry into the IMF programme. This will force the government to pass on electricity tariffs to consumers and rationalise borrowings from the central bank, hence pushing interest rates back upwards again.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 4th, 2012.
e Express Tribune, October 4th, 2012.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012, marked an historic day at Pakistan’s largest stock market. The Karachi bourse climbed to an all-time high, breaching the previous record of 15,676 points – achieved on April 18, 2008 – to close above the 15,700 points barrier. The bourse’s recovery to a new record comes after nearly a thousand days of trading activity.
After breaking through the previous high, the Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE) becomes only the second stock market in the world to do so ever since the start of the global financial crisis, according to data provided by Lakson Investments. India’s BSE SENSEX is the only other index that breached its previous high in the period, reaching 21,005.0 points on November 5, 2010.
On Wednesday, the KSE benchmark 100-share index rose 0.41% or 63.92 points to close at 15,712.21 points. Trade volumes, however, dropped to 108 million shares compared with Tuesday’s tally of 140 million shares. The value of shares traded during the day was Rs4.20 billion.
Shares of 376 companies were traded on Wednesday. At the end of the day 186 stocks closed higher, 124 declined while 66 remained unchanged.
Jahangir Siddiqui & Company was the volume leader with 13.35 million shares gaining Rs0.56 to finish at Rs13.99. It was followed by Nishat Mills Limited with 4.57 million shares gaining Rs1.35 to close at Rs58.85 and Askari Bank with 4.32 million shares gaining Rs0.06 to close at Rs15.47.
Foreign institutional investors were buyers of Rs148.84 million and sellers of Rs236.41 million, according to data maintained by the National Clearing Company of Pakistan Limited.
When contacted for comments by The Express Tribune, Raza Hamdani, investment analyst at Shajar Capital Pakistan, had some reservations about the development. He pointed out that newly-set record may not be as exciting for pundits as it may seem on the surface, drawing attention to the fact that the index’s high “is still considerably below the previous high witnessed in April 2008 in terms of market capitalisation.”
He pointed out that KSE’s current market capitalisation stands nearly 45% lower in dollar terms, as compared to levels in April 2008. Moreover, he said that analyses point to the fact that investors are far more risk-averse now, as compared to April 2008, which means that the index could have been trading a lot higher than it is currently.
“The market is trading forward at 6.7x price-to-earnings ratio, as compared to 10.5x in 2008 – signifying room for further appreciation,” he explained.
In the long term, Hamdani said that a single-digit inflation trend, stability on the external front, robust remittances and improving textile exports may provide room for further monetary easing; helping leveraged sectors and driving corporate earnings. These could help the index gain significantly by the end of this year, he said.
On the other hand, Farid Aliani, equity research analyst at BMA Capital, said that: “We believe that the healthy performance of the market is reflective of a positive fundamental shift driven by a better macroeconomic picture, as compared to last year.”
“International Monetary Fund (IMF) repayments are being made smoothly, without much strain on reserves, while export numbers are improving as well,” he continued.
Aliani reminded us that a further lowering in the discount rate, which has been the primary driver behind the recent rally, would incentivise shifting money from deposits earning interest at banks, to dividend-yielding stocks; especially in the oil and gas, fertiliser and power sectors.
To a question regarding trends in individuals’ participation in the stock market given the positive outlook, he said that the relaxation in capital gains tax rules had already invited retail investors to the market over the last nine months. He also informed us that individuals’ share in market participation has grown to 62% from 59% last year, and that he expects the trend to continue.
Aliani was more cautious about the long-term: he pointed out that impending payments worth $1.6 billion to the IMF may deplete the country’s foreign reserves and force Pakistan’s re-entry into the IMF programme. This will force the government to pass on electricity tariffs to consumers and rationalise borrowings from the central bank, hence pushing interest rates back upwards again.
Published in The Express Tribune, October 4th, 2012.
e Express Tribune, October 4th, 2012.