With over four years of governance under its belt, it’s widely acknowledged that the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) has rapidly become a deeply unpopular party. A poll conducted by Gallup Pakistan this year, however, may shed some light on just how unpopular it is – and how opposition parties have benefited from this.
In the 2008 general elections, 31% of the electorate voted for the PPP.
The Gallup survey, which used a sample size of 4,940 people from across the country, states that as far as voting intentions are concerned, this figure has now now been reduced to 21% in 2012.
Meanwhile, intention to vote for Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in the upcoming general elections has drastically increased.
From a 20% vote in 2008, Nawaz Sharif’s centre-right party is now up to 33%. New arrival on the political scene, Imran Khan’s PTI, is up from 0% (the party boycotted the previous polls) to 17%.
In 2011, Imran’s party emerged as what many called a ‘game changer’ in the voter demographic.
PPP’s ups and downs
On the other hand, while President Asif Ali Zardari’s government seems thoroughly disliked by much of the populace, there may be a silver lining for the besieged incumbent administration.
In 2012, a whopping 87% of the population believes the country is heading in the ‘wrong direction’ – but interestingly, this figure is actually down from 2011, when a stunning 93% of the nation felt this pessimism.
Perhaps unsurprisingly, former premier Yousaf Raza Gilani’s approval ratings also dropped post 2011, as he came to be more closely identified with President Zardari – he had fared far better between 2010 and 2011, in the wake of the passage of the 18th amendment.
By 2012 however, his net rating (the difference between positive and negative ratings) was down to a negative 40%. The president, meanwhile, has had increasingly negative ratings since 2008.
Voter demographic
Province wise, the survey’s results show that traditional strongholds have remained just that, with PTI making deep inroads in Punjab and Khyber-Pakthunkhwa. Imran’s party has almost double the support in Punjab that the PPP does – 21% as opposed to 12%.
Meanwhile, the PML-N’s fears of Imran Khan’s political potency seem to be unfounded: While the PTI has gained massively in Punjab, so has Nawaz’s party, where actual votes have increased from 29% in 2008 to 44% intended votes in 2012.
Miraculously, in Sindh, the PPP managed to glean more votes (at least intended) than in 2008.
PTI, in spite of a massive rally in Karachi in 2011 generally considered to have changed perceptions regarding their success, maintained a modest 6% of the voting pie in the province – while PML-N came in last, with 5% of intended votes.
In Khyber-Pakthunkhwa, the PPP has fared particularly badly, going down from 18% in 2008 to a mere 6% of intended votes in 2012. PPP’s allies, including the currently provincial ruling party Awami National Party, have also lost almost half of their electorate since 2008.
PML-N and PTI have, on the other hand, gained considerable ground – they now stand to gain 42% and 25% of intended votes respectively.
In Balochistan, nobody’s very popular. Significantly, PPP’s strength has increased in the province as has the PML-N’s and PTI’s. PPP allies and other parties have lost a great deal of support on the other hand.
Violence, unrest, separatism
The Gallup survey also monitored public opinion on the restive situation in Balochistan and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata).
Interestingly, 71% of the sample was in favour of autonomy for Balochistan, while almost two-thirds of the country was against independence. Meanwhile optimism on relations with India has risen drastically, with net optimism soaring to 29 points in 2012 from -51 in 2010.
*DISCLAIMER: THE STATISTICS PUBLISHED HERE HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BY GALLUP PAKISTAN.
THE EXPRESS TRIBUNE CANNOT GUARANTEE THEIR VERACITY.
Published in The Express Tribune, August 12th, 2012.
COMMENTS (91)
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MMA is the major party of kpk not any old party includ pti because the MMA govt were a best govt in kpk last last session
I dont know why we want results the way we think. If someone is critic of the credibility of these surveys what rationale do he has, just sweet wishes. It is no harm if i like one leader or the other but we must be realistic and open hearted to accept the realities and views of the others. If we are 10 people we have 10 brains to think, those can not think alike. We have variable perceptions based on the perspective in front of us. So should not indulge in these matters in a way to insult any of the Pakistani leader. They all belong to us and part of this motherland and above all v have small window to look in front of us so its quiet possible wat we are looking is not very true. So have respect for Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan and even for Zardari. In fact these ppl are mirror images of our society. Lets try to make our surrounding much better, lets love ppl around us, lets care the others emotions. Thanx
To all PTI and PML N supporters, you guys are making this article quite interesting with your comments... @Khurram: vote for anyone, whether for ANP or PTI.. I dont care about both of them as being a citizen of Pakistan and living in Karachi for the past 56 years I will definitely vote for MQM and mind it nothing is going to change in Karachi as we have seen these ethinic riots by you in past so its quite simple that we are not going to trust anyone of you... For your info I am not racist, we are always learning from our past mistakes...
Playing with stats. It is in comparison to 2012 which means only 13% increase for MLN and 17% for PTI.
As a resident of KPK and being a Pakhtun, I can say with confidence that we have never voted on basis of ethnicity, language or caste. We gave opportunity to PPP twice, PMLN twice, MMA once and now first time to nationalist party ANP. We are open and have always embrace change. Imran Khan is welcome and we will give him chance too.
I don't believe the survey represent real sentiment of KPK. There is a big segment with either PTI or ANP. I don't see PMLN here in any significant proportion.
I think there is nothing strange., the political situation has been changed too much after the 30th October as PTI itself has changed :). Now the mature political worker who had made their minds to go with PTI are turning back, i believe if there would be a survery in this or previous month, PML(N) would have been nearly 50% by popularity. The most funny things is that PTIan's are now discussing the Sample method, size etc etc, have they forgotton when their socalled leader by himself, enjoy and discuss such kind of survey reposts but when these reports are in the favor of PTI. Let me know them, sample size has ever been such as Gallup has and it is almost standard size. PTI Bubble burst and hurts PTI.:)
PPP will be benefited from PTI politics. PTI is doing the politics of splitting PML(N) votes. Nothing else. bad politics by PTI.
PMLN never had a leg to stand on in KPK.
where is MQM?
@Ihtisham khan: Well Brother I am not but anyway let us see what is the outcome of the elections.Also . I replied to Khurram not you as Khurram's comment was against modern democratic norms and was his highly objectionable comment as he is brining race into politics. In Punjab the history is politics about issues not races at all Secondly i spent my childhood in Peshawar so i know what ANP said about us but the irony is that many of the same people now joined PTI in recent months and one is Senior Member of PTI!!!!!. Anyway Have Peace and sometimes Daal Khors or Khariaans like me feel offended by some comments and that is all what i have to say as i am not going to vote any party in next elections...
Well everyone will be surprised in next elections. A friend of mine who is die hard MQM supporte, told me that he is sick of MQM alliance with PPP and will vote for PTI. Even his whole family will vote for PTI in Karachi. People are not stupid. Its now up to to people to change things.
Imran Khan is son of Lahore. People raising ethnic slogans are importers who are serving the agenda of PTI's political opponents. PTI only raises the flag of Pakistani nationalism.
PTI all the way !!
PMLN the most popular part in KPK??? REALLY
Disclaimer at the end by ET says it all.
PTI getting help of sheikh rashid and still saying they will win???????? next survey will decrease the buble from PTI balloon if sir IK don't amend his policies
@Awans.. Again u confusing swat with hazara.. Swat is 99.9% pukhtoon dominated area .. U r the first person to Claim otherwise .. I don't know where are u getting ur facts from?. Any way .. Its not about ethnicity .. If it were for ethnicity then ANP should win as they are do polotics on the basis of ethnicity .. Where was this ethnicity in 1997. For the past 15 years Imran khan was not pukhtoon .,was he not a khan for the last 15 years .. It's easy to blame PML n failure on ethnicity ...On the topic of ethnicity I can go on and on as I know all about anp and what they say about pukhtoon and punjabi .. But this is not the place ..
Use some sense before interpreting the results. This survey was done in February 2012, while PEW survey was done in June 2012.
We are hearing about PPP unpopularity since it came to power in 2008. Surveys and Media are unanimously of the same opinion. But when we look at voting patterns in Azad Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan and all bye-elections held during the last four years, they all tell a different story. Either our Surveys and Media Analysts are thoroughly incompetent or totally manipulated. The sad part is that if PPP again emerges as the single largest party in the next elections, these so-called experts and analysts will still remain in business,
@Awans: Nicely said . We cannot give room to the ethnic card being played PTI and their trolls.
@Khurram: I thought PTI is based upon patriotism than nationalism and blood-lines.
LOL....PMLN is leading in KPK.
@Falcon: What about Multan NA 151 results which completely throws this result in dustbin.
Let PPP & PMLN celebrate on results of this survey, PTI must be busy in Election within the party, we'll give u huge surprise on Election day, inshallah.
Really?
Well apart from emotions and personality chrisma of IK, I believe gallup survey is very much tru reflection of ground reality in Pakistan. PTI for sure have gained more grounds but yet need lots of time to actually challange PPP and PMLn. Many in Pakistan have started thinking that IK is proving to be a spoiler for PMLn rather than a ntaional leader. I believe IK shoud think about it.
sorry express tribune i take my words on biasness.. i think you are neutral but what was wrong with my comments? i only meant what is the authenticity of these polls especially when it was conducted in february 2012 and kept it as classified and released now ,and that also deliberately by government to one particular newspaper of punjab?
@ To Many Here:
Yeah, yeah rejoice and start dancing O people of Pakistan for you are going to select PML-N for your next ruling party, although you have done that 2 times before. But this time she is going to change Pakistan right Or may be not and then you can start abusing it and turn to PPP again.
Shame on the people of Pakistan!
Is it true that BHOOLA is in the lead?That means we have slipped two paces backwards.
I think PTI not get more than 10-15 seats in National Aasembly.
Who has conducted this survey and how authectic it is that, the Tribune is making it, its headline. Please dont create doubts about your credibility.
Who cares as PPP is going to win anyway
Lol on PTI fans who now say that 4900 is not a representative sample; PEW's sample size was around 1200 and PTIan's were ferociously quoting the PEW survey to prove their popularity.
This Gallup also did favourable survey for PMLN about laptops recently. I would go with PEW Research and not this fake survey.
I live in Abbottabad and know very well about Hazara in KP. PTI hold strong support here. PML lost support and lost candidates during name change of province. I bet results will be completely different here.
GA Bhutto.
Great News for Muslim Leaguees. Keep it up.
What you all need to see with open eyes is that PTI is again single party whose trend is going up...PMLN although high from 2008, 20% popularity is down from 37% in 2011 to 33% n will go further down..Stay tuned!
There is no evidence of this poll on the Gallup site--supposedly, it is a survey that was conducted but never published. This is not how Gallup operates so go figure. The Express Tribune also has a disclaimer at the bottom of this article saying they cannot verify the data. I think this is pure hogwash.
And importantly Gallup Survey was conducted in Feb 2012 whereas IRI survey was held in March 2012 so IRI survey is the most latest one not the Gallup, though Gallup Survey has been released/ disclosed later than IRI.
no doubt, of all the available political leaders nawaz sharif is better.
The results about KP and Baluchistan are just rubbish. No body is ready to accept it because PTI is on Top in KP, N-League is no where in KP because I myself belong to KP.
The same is true for Baluchistan even because how can PPP be so popular after so bad performance of worst Law & Order Situation there and CM doesn't live in Baluchistan?
@Awans...i am from swat and the last time i checked PML N did not win any seats from there...and i don't see that improving.. its either PTI or ANP..as far as abottabad haripur etc are concerned yes...it was a strong hold of PML N..but after the changing the name to KPK i think PML N has done itself a lot of damage...plus thats only a few seats i don't know how can that mount to 42%.....only time will tell but i am 80 to 90% sure that PML N cannot win majority in KPK...not this time..may be in future but this time i am finding it near impossibe..every one is talking about PTI..wether that changes to votes is totally different.. that will only be decided by elections...till then u are here...and i am here...lets wait and see..who say this sentence ..'i told u so'...lol.......
Only survey that comes with a disclaimer!
@Awans: Kindly go through this survey too http://www.thenewstribe.com/2012/05/05/pti-leads-among-pakistan-political-parties-iri-poll/ PTI popularity is 49% in KPK
PML n cant get even 5% vote in kpk. But when u interview 4900 out of 180 million, u will get this kind of results. The sample size is childish. Gallop needs a lesson on reseaech methodology.
These surveys have no creditability since rural voters are like herds who only vote on the basis of their immediate benefits like can of oil, bag of atta, a dress, etc given to them on the day of voting. There are fundamentals which are needed to establish & florish democracy but in spite of all this democracy is best for Pakistan. This country can only survive if we will have fair elections. Dictatorship has destroyed this country whether it was Ayub, Zia, Yahya or Musharraf although Zia has been dead since more than 22 years but his clones are in millions roaming around all over Pakistan still destroying the country.
Ooops.... PTI`s popularity bubble is busted.... REALITY CHECK FOR PTI :D
4900 people means 18 peoplevper NA constituency. Now to interview 18 people in a constituency to calculate trend for 4-5 parties can be nothing but funny. This is another form of pmln propaganda war, but we know the ground reality. Just waite and see.
This and other survey like these are fake and fabricated. 42% of pmln in KP is hilarious. I am surprised at the way a systemetic campaign thru these surveys and the media has been running to portray ANP as the weakest party despite the fact that they have won all byelections. May be owing to their bold and principalled stand against terrorists, their opposition to meddling in afghanistan and their efforts to educate pakhtun youth and shun extremism does not match the motives of some hidden forces in pakistan.
@awans, Hazara region was once a strong hold of PMLN. Party has lost strength here when PMLN didn't help Hazara division in name change. I am from Hazara and I know ground realities. Some strong candidates have already gone to PTI. Swat was never PML strong seat but there are chance now though Swat has limited seats compared to Hazara.
That 21% support for PPP is something to be ashamed of for this nation. Any support for PPP or PML-N, two parties that have shared power for the last few decades and have brought Pakistan to its knees is something to be ashamed of for this nation.
The base line of survey is by whom and for whom it is being conducted. Let all those who want PPP and ANP to lose the elections feel happy till elections are held
@khurram and pti trolls accuse mqm of ethnic hatred, im of kashmiri background and im proud to say i will vote mqm in next elections.
IK better luck in 2018 we have other leaders to save pak too. SS all the way
There is still time for PTI to realise ground realities and to make alliance with PML(N) to get rid of PPP and their partners for ever
Castles in the air built by PTI....... shattered with this single blow..
This survey was done in Feb and is being released now. PML-N could never get 42% voters in KPK. If they had shown PML-N even at 25% in KPK, that would have made some logic. But 42% is just too much. This survey is clearly biased. We should all wait for next IRI Survey which would probably be released in September.
The bottomline is PPP is going to win the majority in next election witH. PTI as the second largest and Nawaz trailing third
How can it be possible that PMLN is the most popular party in KP?? What kind of survey is this?? Interestingly this "news" is only on ET, no one else is reporting it!!
A real Pakhtoon will always vote for his own blood. Imran is our pure blood and we will vote for our race in Punjab and in KPK and either ANP or PTI will win only from KPK. We will never vote PMLN a party representing immigrants of Kashmir and India in Punjab. Pukhtoons in Pindi and Lahore will also vote for only Imran Khan. Kehta har pakhtoon hai Imran hamara khoon hai. PTI zindabad.
Keeping in view this survey, if some sense prevail, mature leaders from PTI and PML(N) come forward and make an election alliance to get rid of this corrupt government. The nation will welcome this step.
Will turn upside down on the D-Day . . . !!!!
@Sami: Well...its not facebook they are surveying...
Can someone paste the Gallup website's official link to this survey. I cannot find it anywhere on their website: www.gallup.com.pk
LOL...PML N is 42% in KPK and PTI 25%...Really gallup?....i think this KPK is not the one i am from...it must be somewhere in punjab...
42% pml N in Khyber pukhtunkhwa...are u kidding me?..how is that even possible..??..Gallup...who did u ask in KPK?...
I have to look at the sampling procedure used by Gallup, but it seems like it is slightly inconsistent with other surveys released before, specially in terms of Punjab and KPK. PTI is way ahead of others in KPK, as per sentiments on the ground. Similarly, PTI does not lag behind PMLN by as much of a margin as the survey cites.
PTI is much more popular than PMLN, i dot know how you guys did this survey.
This is old survey conducted in Jan and irrelevant in fasting changing political scenario of the country. Pakistan is a very eventful country and things has changed during last eight months.
Why IRI survey was not discussed last month like this..man this media is showing its true colors..they are making this survey which was not official released in there head lines..and the IRI survey was not even deserved a small place in there papers..this survey was also done before IRI survey..this is why PML N is not leaving the government..otherwise who will give half half pages adds in news papers to get this kind of surveys published..
seems like PML-N will get around 130-135 seats in the upcomming elections ..
Opps, I found
PML-N the most Popular party of Pakistan :)
there u go PTI trolls :D
PML-N's popularity is 33% almost double than PTI's 17%
in Punjab PML-N stands outstanding with 44% while PTI with 21%, KPK PML-N has 42% support while PTI is with just 25% ...
PML-N clearly leading in overall trend and the most Popular party in Punjab and KPK ..
Bogus and biased. Pakistan politics is beyond these surveys. 70% constituencies are rural who even dont know these concepts.
Pew has different results about Pakistani leadership and their popularity. http://www.pakistantoday.com.pk/2012/06/28/news/national/imran-khan-most-popular-leader-survey/
When these polls are released it is important to know sample size, when and where it was conducted.
Wasn't Gallup planning to sue 'Gallup Pakistan'? What's the credibility of this organization?
I do not agree. In KP PTI has a lead by a huge margin.
. PPP and PMLN have much stronger political organizations on union levels which is going to turn in more votes on election day. This survey does not take account of that. Mere Subjective feelings do not turn into votes.
And also it does not take account constituency based politics in most of Pakistan where local groups or Dharas fight the elections not political parties and PTI is weak in that respect too.
This should be grounds enough to stop the nonsense about breaking up Punjab .
that should be a strong enough slap on PTI