Which way will the wind blow?

One possibility for the elections of 2012 is the two big parties are likely to lose out in the face of incumbency.

LAHORE:

A season of discontent is upon us as election year sets in. No one, however, expects the polls before the fall. Political pundits foresee an early budget in May, a caretaker set-up in June and the elections to follow in mid-october to early November.

However, conspiracy theories are rife, the most popular being that the caretaker government might stick around for two, maybe three years.

Tuesday’s Punjab Assembly session was called to pass a resolution asking parliament to legislate for a drug regulatory authority.

MPAs and journalists sipped coffee in the Punjab Assembly cafeteria on Tuesday and talked politics.

PML-N MPAs from south Punjab voiced their fear of the rise of PTI in south Punjab and the incumbency factor working against both the PPP and the PML-N.

The question was whether PPP and PML-N could repeat their performance of 2008 in the upcoming elections. My cafeteria buddies said that the assassination of Benazir Bhutto had swept PPP into the Centre and Sindh and the homecoming of the Sharifs after their long exile had worked in their favour.

They felt that PPP did not have much to show for their tenure other than the restoration of the Constitution and the PML-N had even less than that. Imran Khan, it was felt, could emerge as a front runner in south Punjab but the GT Road belt would be a tougher nut to crack. Khan’s star power is also untested in rural polity which depends largely on clans’ clout.

It is not clear if people in rural areas would vote for a middle class urban movement.

One possibility for the elections of 2012 is a parliament of small factions. Another possibility is PTI striding ahead to be a clear winner.

One thing is clear. The two big parties are likely to lose out in the face of incumbency.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 16^th, 2012.