Early elections
Early elections benefits PPP in Senate elections & deprives Imran Khan, PTI of time to capitalise on new momentum.
For months now, the PPP government has been insisting that it will serve out its term despite pressure from the PML-N to hold early elections. Now, it looks like it might give in and that may not be a bad thing — both for the health of democracy in the country and for the PPP itself. What matters to the PPP above all is that the Senate elections go ahead either as scheduled or even ahead of schedule. This will ensure that no matter who wins the most seats in the National Assembly in the next general elections, the PPP will have a majority in the upper house, and will hold the post of chairman of the Senate, leaving the party a heartbeat away from the presidency. Early elections may also have the added benefit for the PPP of depriving Imran Khan and the PTI of the time they need to capitalise on the momentum of their recent rallies. It could also temporarily arrest the flood of defections towards the PTI. And if the PPP holds the elections right after the budget, it could point towards several pro-poor measures it has introduced in the budget while electioneering. Early elections may suit the PML-N too. It, perhaps more than the PPP, fears the PTI and would like elections to be held early. The PML-N can also take credit for early elections since it has been at the forefront of the movement to get the PPP out of power.
Ultimately, though, even if the PPP is resigned to the idea of early elections, we should not forget that the government’s hand was probably forced by the military establishment. From its dogged pursuit of the memogate scandal to what seems to be a whispering campaign against President Asif Ali Zardari and the PPP-led government, the decision to hold an early election, it could be argued, is something that the establishment would perhaps prefer. Of course, this implies that a democracy that has to bend to the wishes of the military is not very stable and secure to begin with. While that may be true, the future is perhaps not all that bleak — especially given that the events of the past few weeks have at least led to very vigorous debate in the media and increasingly on social media as well; much of it is cognisant of the precarious state that the civilian government finds itself in.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 7th, 2012.
Ultimately, though, even if the PPP is resigned to the idea of early elections, we should not forget that the government’s hand was probably forced by the military establishment. From its dogged pursuit of the memogate scandal to what seems to be a whispering campaign against President Asif Ali Zardari and the PPP-led government, the decision to hold an early election, it could be argued, is something that the establishment would perhaps prefer. Of course, this implies that a democracy that has to bend to the wishes of the military is not very stable and secure to begin with. While that may be true, the future is perhaps not all that bleak — especially given that the events of the past few weeks have at least led to very vigorous debate in the media and increasingly on social media as well; much of it is cognisant of the precarious state that the civilian government finds itself in.
Published in The Express Tribune, January 7th, 2012.