Bonn in the USA

Pakistan's decisi­on to boycot­t the Bonn confer­ence provid­es Americ­a with a timeta­ble for their invest­igatio­n.

If Pakistan-US relations can be likened to a game of chess, then we just broke out of a checkmate that has been in place for too long, drop-kicked the King, shot a bunch of pawns in the face, broke the Bishop’s back and are now standing in front of the Queen with a rifle aimed at her face. That’s the kind of change that has occurred in the strategic power balance because of the Nato cross-border attack.

A cynical observer will look beyond the tragic death of 24 soldiers and see a rare opportunity afforded to Pakistan to get some momentum back in their attempt to grapple a submission out of America. A less cynical observer might wonder why it took this long for Pakistan to take a stand against Nato and US attacks that have left many civilians dead already. A complete babe-in-the-woods type observer will wonder why the order to vacate Shamsi Airbase has such a sense of déjà vu about it. The brand new observer will probably get shot at by Nato gunships.

A complete apology and commitment to compensate the families of the dead, is yet to come from America, which is a bit odd. Had Raymond Davis killed the same soldiers, their families would have already been flown out with brand new passports. The moral of the story here being that if you have to be killed by an American, try to make sure it is Raymond Davis. Similarly, the motivation is just as vague. The official story of Taliban gunfights and giving chase has more plot holes than a Michael Bay film. It seems like a modern retelling of the Gulf of Tonkin incident (that resulted in the Vietnam War) with North Vietnamese boats replaced by ghost Taliban. This time the goals might be slightly less obvious. Either way, the message to the average Pakistani is the same. Last time America snuck in and killed Bin Laden. This time they snuck in and killed 24 soldiers. Next time they could sneak in and pop two in the back of your head.

Pakistan’s reaction has been measured so far. They’ve employed the correct diplomatic channels and made the right noises. This is, in and of itself, surprising. The decision to boycott the Bonn conference provides America with a timetable for their investigation. Apologies and reparations, if provided before the December 5^th deadline, can see Pakistan returning to the conference table. If not, the future of Afghanistan remains unclear for a little while longer. Although, if anyone thought that Afghanistan’s problems would be solved by a single meeting in Germany then I have an airbase in Shamsi to sell them at a great price. Similarly, the blocking of Nato supply lines, which have been blocked and unblocked so many times that they should be renamed ‘Nato supply dashes’, is also a strategic move. The question now is, how far is too far for Pakistan? Will these bold moves be seen as just another diplomatic curveball tossed in a long and tiring game, or will it push America over the edge of its patience? At a time when the run-up to the US Presidential Election is picking up speed and the average Republican candidate has the strategic and geographic understanding of a toddler with Attention Deficit Disorder, could the Obama government try to increase its local popularity by turning towards the Pakistani glare and poking us in the eyes? Or would they be willing to accept this round as a loss, take a helping of humble pie and look towards the next move? Only time will tell.

Meanwhile, it seems, our new Ambassador to the US has her work cut out for her.

Published in The Express Tribune, December 1^st, 2011.