Mideast conflict: possible future scenarios

The assassination of Hamas Chief Haniyeh in Tehran risks escalating regional conflict; diplomacy needed for peace

The assassination of Hamas Chief Ismail Haniyeh reportedly by Israel in Tehran carries the seeds of a wider regional conflict. Both Hamas and Iran's Supreme Leader have vowed to avenge the killing. This important development during the already grave and tense situation in the region does not auger well for the prospects of peace in the region.

The collective failure of the world to stop the ongoing conflict and carnage in Gaza speaks volumes of the deterioration of global moral standards and lack of statesmen on the global stage. The blind support for Israel by the US and its Western allies has exposed the hollowness of their claims of standing for justice, human rights and peace in the world. The displacement of more than two million Palestinians of Gaza, killing of more than 39,000 civilians, including 15,000 children, and utter disregard for the plight of all those who spend every moment trying to survive in the face of indiscriminate Israeli military action over the past nine months or so is not enough for the world in general and global powers in particular to take real action and stop the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

The massive military might of Israel supported by its staunch Western allies to crush Hamas and its military wing has failed to yield the desired objectives it set itself at the start of its offensive in Gaza in the wake of the October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas. The resistance put in by Hamas and its fighters against the massive Israeli military action in Gaza clearly proves it. The civilian population of Gaza seems to be standing firm with Hamas despite going through all the hardships.

The only person in the world who would want to continue the war for the foreseeable future is none other than the current Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanhayu, as it has become a matter of political survival for him and his ultra-conservative political allies in the government in the wake of security failures of the October 7 attack. He is more unpopular now in Israel than at any point during his political career. He is doing all he can to buy his time and ensure that the current conflict continues in one form or another till the time of the US Presidential elections. The possible return of Donald Trump in the White House after the elections holds the prospect of unfettered US military and diplomatic support for Israel unlike at present when the Biden administration has at times tried to pursue a balanced approach, besides publicly disagreeing with him over the strategy to be pursued during the different phases of the conflict. For Netanyahu and others hawkish elements in the Israeli political world, it is a matter of political survival only, and they would continue to play their political games at the cost of innocent lives of the innocent Palestinians as well as peace and normalcy in the region.

A counter-attack by Hamas and Iran in the wake of Haniyeh's assassination threatens escalation in the security situation in the region. This time around Iran and its allies are not expected to show symbolic use of force unlike in the past when Israel knew in advance about the drone and missile attacks and managed to counter it with the help of the US and its other allies in the region. The killing of one of its important ally by Israel on its own soil will be too much to brush aside for the Iranian regime.

It is imperative for both the powerful global powers and international global institutions to take urgent preemptive diplomatic measures to deescalate the dangerous security situation in the region and move to find a lasting solution to the issue of statehood for Palestinians. Let us hope that sanity will prevail on all sides to avoid unnecessary bloodshed and loss of innocent human lives. The killing and carnage has gone on for too long now. Let us move towards finding a solution acceptable to all the concerned parties.