Cyclonic storm Asna moves closer to Sindh coast, heavy rains expected in Karachi

Sea conditions are predicted to be very rough, with squally winds reaching speeds of 60-70 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h

Listen to article

Cyclonic Storm "Asna" has moved westward over the northeast Arabian Sea and is now located approximately 120 km south of Karachi, 180 km southwest of Thatta, 250 km southeast of Ormara, and 440 km east-southeast of Gwadar, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) announced on Friday night.

The storm is positioned at Latitude 23.8 N and Longitude 66.6 E. According to the PMD, Asna is expected to continue moving initially west-northwestward and then shift to a west-southwestward trajectory.

Under the influence of Asna, rain and thunderstorms, accompanied by heavy downpours and squally winds of 60-70 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h, are expected in Karachi, Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, Jamshoro, and Dadu districts of Sindh until August 31. Similar weather conditions are forecast for the districts of Hub, Lasbella, Awaran, Kech, and Gwadar in Balochistan until September 1.

The PMD has warned that heavy rains may cause waterlogging in low-lying areas along the Makran coast.

Sea conditions are likely to remain rough to very rough, with squally winds reaching speeds of 60-70 km/h, gusting up to 80 km/h. Fishermen from Sindh are advised to avoid venturing into the sea until August 31, while those from Balochistan should refrain from doing so until September 1.

Meanwhile, Director General of the Meteorological Department, Sahibzada Khan, has stated in a press conference that Cyclone Asna has transformed into a deep depression upon reaching Rajasthan.

“This is the first time in 60 years, since 1964, that such a cyclone has formed. Currently, it is located 200 kilometres south of Karachi and may intensify into a tropical storm within the next six hours,” he said.

Khan further noted that the severe low-pressure system is highly likely to evolve into a cyclone within the next six hours. This could result in strong winds and heavy, torrential rain across Karachi Division, Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Sujawal, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allahyar, Matiari, Umerkot, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Jamshoro, Dadu, and Shaheed Benazirabad districts.

Certain areas of Balochistan might also be affected.

Speaking about the monsoon rains, Khan mentioned that another spell of rain is expected in the upper regions from 2 to 4 September. However, conditions in Sindh and Balochistan are expected to improve, with the monsoon showing more of its effects in the northern areas.

He added, “Despite these rains, water stress will remain in Mangla Dam in the upcoming season.”

Chief Meteorologist Dr Sardar Sarfaraz described the situation as a “rare phenomenon,” stating, “There is an 80 per cent chance for a cyclonic storm’s formation when the deep depression would move from land to the sea and get favourable conditions. It would be a rare event as cyclones are uncommon in the monsoon season.”

Dr Sarfaraz further explained that if the storm materializes, it would be the first cyclone in the Arabian Sea in August since 1976 and would be named ‘Asna,’ a name proposed by Pakistan.

He added that regional cyclones are named according to a list prepared by a 13-country panel, including Pakistan.

Despite the storm not posing a direct threat to Pakistan's coastline, its impact could still be significant. Torrential rains associated with the storm could lead to urban flooding and inundation in low-lying areas, including Karachi.

“Sea conditions are likely to remain rough to very rough with squally winds 50-60 km/hour gusting to 70 km/hour,” warned the PMD.

In light of these developments, Karachi Mayor Murtaza Wahab has urged residents to avoid “unnecessary movement.”

He took to X, saying, “I would urge the residents of Karachi especially bike riders to avoid unnecessary movement. Stay safe everyone & in case of any emergency call 1339.” The Karachi commissioner’s office has also announced a holiday for schools on August 30 (Friday) due to the anticipated severe weather.

Meanwhile, across Pakistan, incessant rainfall has already claimed nine lives, induced flash floods, and cut off road access in several regions.

In Punjab, seven people lost their lives, and 18 others were injured as heavy rain caused widespread damage to infrastructure and triggered urban flooding in low-lying areas.

According to the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), these casualties were reported between 2 pm on August 28 and 2 pm on Thursday.

In Gilgit-Baltistan, two people, including a tourist, were killed, and three others were wounded as rain-induced landslides and flash floods blocked the Karakoram Highway and Baltistan Road.

PDMA's alert

The PMD’s cyclone alert indicates that the weather system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm by Friday and move initially in a west/southwest direction.

“The deep depression over the Rann of Kutch, India, has slowly moved west-southwestward during the last 12 hours and now lies at about 250km south/southeast of Karachi,” the alert stated.

Under the influence of this system, widespread rain and wind-thunderstorms with scattered heavy to very heavy falls are expected in several districts, including Awaran, Kech, and Gwadar, from August 30 until September 1.

The PMD also cautioned that such torrential rains could trigger pluvial flooding or inundation in low-lying areas of Sindh, Balochistan, and southern Punjab. Flash flooding is also a concern in the hill torrents of Dera Ghazi Khan and local streams in Karachi, Hyderabad, and other areas.

Fishermen in Sindh have been advised not to venture into the open sea until August 31, while those in Balochistan are warned to avoid the sea until September 1.

The PMD’s cyclone warning center in Karachi is closely monitoring the system and will continue to issue updates accordingly.

Dr. Sarfaraz noted that cyclones during the monsoon season are typically short-lived. “They start decaying within a few hours. This happens due to the change in the sea surface temperature and wind’s intensity and direction,” he explained.

Meteorologist Anjum Nazir also highlighted the rarity of such events during the monsoon season, stating, "During monsoon, there is approximately 1% or 2% chance for a depression or low pressure to turn into a cyclonic storm or tropical cyclone."

Currently, a wet spell prevails over Sindh, particularly the southern and central parts of the province, as well as the neighbouring Indian state of Gujarat. In its wake, the Thar district received the highest amount of rainfall in Sindh on Thursday — 347 millimetres across seven tehsils — according to the PMD.

Rain related incidents

Among other districts, Karachi recorded a cumulative 190mm of rain in the last 24 hours, Mirpurkhas 143mm, while Hyderabad and Badin received 116mm and 112mm, respectively, according to the PMD data.

At least 28 people have died this week from rain-related incidents in the Indian state. Because of the heavy rains battering the coastal areas along the Arabian Sea in Pakistan, and triggering floods in cities in India’s Gujarat state forced thousands of people from their homes.

In Islamabad, meanwhile, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) issued an alert to the departments concerned after more rains were forecast in Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan during the next 24 to 72 hours.

It said the districts in Sindh might receive more than 100 mm of rain.