Time for change

Pakistani youth, & urbanisation of Pakistani village have caused the political wheel of Pakistan’s history to turn.

Change is one of the natural laws of politics but, like other laws of nature, there is nothing definite about it; its path, timing and scale are unpredictable. Political change, however, doesn’t come from the sky, or out of the blue, catching contestants in power plays, as in our society or even in the more stable, peaceful, democratic industrial societies.

In this respect, there have always been two camps; one with the status quo and the other that would like to change the ways of power, governance and groups that control power in society. Those associated with power in Pakistan, directly through public offices or, indirectly through bribes and patronage, argue that nothing will change in the land of the pure. In times of visible signs of change at the grassroots level, this pessimistic tone is deliberate, conscious and targeted towards defending the power of the major political parties. However, in regular times of stagnation and domination of traditional power cliques, this pessimism would not be out of place.

One thing that observers and analysts of Pakistani politics shouldn’t miss is that the country’s political scene is fast changing at a popular level. In my humble estimation, the popular base is fast slipping away from the two major political parties — the PPP and the PML-N. I am sure this view will be contested, and let it be, using the Marxian phrase: no one can hold back the wheel of history. In our case, it is turning faster than we expected — against the interests and desires of the two major parties.

What has caused the political wheel of Pakistan’s history to turn with such speed? Is it the absolute distrust of the leadership of the two major parties — one has declined to the lowest limit and the other is not where it expected itself to be, sliding down with every swing of the kaptaan — Imran Khan. Let us not talk about the Lahore rally and how it raised the hopes of the Pakistani nation and demystified the domination of the PML-N. For this party, in my view, that proved to be the beginning of its end, loss of self-confidence in its popular support and loss of hope in its future prospects among a good number of political families and figures with individual support in Punjab.

Let me confine myself to two signs of the beginning of great change in Pakistani politics. First is the Pakistani youth embracing the kaptaan as their leader to take Pakistan away from the dynastic party leaders. Pakistani youth today are very different from the youth of my generation that took to the streets against Ayub Khan. They are articulate and have better critical thinking skills. More importantly, they are becoming active in an age of dense social webs, mass communication and universal reach of electronic media. No other leader or party can claim such a popular appeal among Pakistani youth.

The second important sign of change is the urbanisation of the Pakistani village. This is a phenomenon that I have observed very closely in various parts of the country, more in Punjab than in other places. It is not just the spread of facilities but the popular aspirations for a better life, better education, better society and better governance that connect the rural population with the urban population.

These changes will make the next elections transformative, critical and catapult a new party, a new leader into the spotlight. Guess who that could be?

Published in The Express Tribune, November 27^th, 2011.