The case of the crooked missive

There are now three established players to this crooked missive that has plagued Pakistan-US relations and unleashed an intra-Pakistan dynamic since Mansoor Ijaz decided to go public in a Financial Times article. Why he decided to go public at all with that article will be another interesting revelation, but sufficient pointers exist to underline the compulsion. Apparently, it seems he takes his credibility seriously (pun intended); second, it is likely that the search for clues to the immense American tirade of recent weeks against the Pakistani military and the ISI finally led to that ultimate Bohemian (again, pun intended) of the Washington power circles, Mansoor Ijaz, and hence the missive and his ‘veritable’ BBM record of what few men in Washington had been cooking. When the proverbial hits the fan, most run helter-skelter!

Why would our man in Washington need someone as incredulous as Mansoor Ijaz to do the deed, if indeed his own Rolodex is incomparable in the climes of Washington? Short answer: the incredulousness of Mansoor Ijaz, which could act as the most convenient shield of plausible deniability. Sadly, that didn’t happen. Not that the unnamed Pakistani official (read Haqqani, now) in the BBM exchanges did not have his chance: he after all did concede, he was ‘tweaking’ the memo!

The next issue: why would Mansoor Ijaz, along with, the ‘senior Pakistani official’ end up plotting what he did; and why would Admiral Mullen and the American establishment agree to connive in such a scheme? Briefly then: Mansoor Ijaz is a man desperate to be recognised; seemingly, he had some inroads into the Clinton administration but since has been effectively ostracised under Obama’s Democratic stint. When asked, he was more than willing to take the centre-stage. Also, he is an American citizen and will do what is needed to enhance American interest. You can’t blame the poor chap for his patriotism.

Why Mullen would do this along with the other players of the American power clique is also quite evident — they have had bones to pick with the Pakistani military. Somehow, the Americans feel that if both Generals Kayani and Pasha can somehow be replaced with newer players, the fresh incumbents might be willing to go along with the script. Seemingly, that is also what has been reportedly promised in the memo to the Americans if they will standby the political government in power as the changes are wrought. Mansoor Ijaz makes a very interesting observation to the Pakistani official in the BBM exchange; he says, “..we only set the table. He must decide if he wants (a) one-course meal or (a) seven-course meal. Ball is in play now — make sure you have protected your flanks”. There cannot be a graver indictment and culpability of the involved hands.

Quite clearly, the perpetrators of the conspiracy chose a seven-course meal but could never reach the dessert. What Mullen did on the eve of his retirement was perhaps course number five if not the penultimate course. But what became clear by then was that the Pakistani side of the deal wasn’t delivering. That is when Ms Clinton made her appearance, repairing the damage that was bound to snowball with a plan gone awry. Why did the Americans suck up to an unworkable plan in the first place unless they were desperate to somehow replace the military leadership? The last time someone tried this in Pakistan they ended up losing their government which had a two-thirds majority to the preferred replacement. Don’t we ever learn from history?

Ultimately, will Husain Haqqani’s over-exuberance and over-extended luck bring his star crashing to the ground? It may well be the case by the time this goes to print.

Cavorting with the enemy is never a safe thing especially when you represent your nation. But is he alone the one to blame? The jury is likely to remain out on the missing end of this episode in Pakistan. I don’t think we have yet seen the last of this unfortunate misstep even if the axe falls on Haqqani. The effects will reverberate far and long into the coming elections which could, as a consequence, be forced earlier than time. In a morally correct society, a political system under such clouds of suspicion will refer itself back to the electorate for a fresh mandate. That, more likely still, might be the final chapter in this sorry drama even though walls of defiance have already begun to erect around prime suspects. Mansoor Ijaz, regardless of his incredulous antecedents, may be the only credible voice in this saga.

Published in The Express Tribune, November 21^st, 2011.