PSX stages strongest rally in six months

KSE-100 index up 7,477 points on falling oil prices amid US elections

KARACHI:

The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) staged its strongest weekly rally in nearly six months, with the benchmark KSE-100 index surging 7,477 points, or 4.5%, to close at 173,887, as easing geopolitical concerns and a sharp decline in international oil prices lifted investor sentiment amid US midterm elections.

On a day-on-day basis, the PSX commenced the week with a flattish trading session as profit-booking dragged the KSE-100 below 167k despite an oil price dip. The index gained 155 points (+0.09%) to close at 166,564. However, on the second day, Tuesday, a buying frenzy lifted the index above 168k, ignoring an oil rebound. The benchmark gained 1,455 points (+0.87%) to close just above 168k at 168,018.

Building on the previous gains, bulls took firm control mid-week, on Wednesday, as the KSE-100 surged 3,995 points and reclaimed the 172k mark. Bulls extended their winning streak on the second last day of the trading week, when the index surged 3,366 points (+1.96%) to close at 175,380, firmly crossing the 175k psychological barrier.

However, profit-taking snapped one of the historic bullish streaks before the long weekend. The KSE-100 declined 1,493 points (-0.85%) to settle at 173,887.

Arif Habib Limited (AHL) stated in its weekly report that the KSE-100 closed at 173,887, up 4.5% week-on-week, as positive sentiment after the Democrats' midterm election victory in the US, which led to a sharp decline in oil prices on November 4, supported the market.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Oct'26 clocked in at 9.6% YoY compared to 10.3% in Sept'26. The government raised Rs385.6 billion against the target of Rs350 billion in the auction of its papers. Overall yields dropped 0.4 to 12 basis points, with the biggest participation observed in the three-year tenor at Rs165.3 billion.

In other economic news, AHL said, Pakistan's trade deficit stood at $3.9 billion in Oct'26, with exports rising 2.8% YoY (+0.2% MoM) to $2.9 billion, while imports increased 11.8% YoY (+5.7% MoM) to $6.8 billion. Urea offtake for Oct'26 increased 39% YoY to 487k tons. AGL led growth with sales up 87% YoY to 36k tons, followed by FFC at +54% YoY to 257k tons and FATIMA at +30% YoY to 56k tons, while EFERT sales rose 13% YoY to 138k tons.

Oil production rebounded 8.9% WoW to 64.7k bpd, mainly due to revival in flows from northern fields, while gas production decreased slightly by 0.4% WoW to 3,063 mmcfd, driven by lower production, mainly from Mari. The government reduced petrol price by 6.7% WoW to Rs352.59/litre, driven entirely by a drop in ex-refinery prices. Similarly, it slashed high-speed diesel price by 4.6% WoW to Rs382.25/litre, also driven entirely by a fall in ex-refinery prices.

Refinery sales surged 9.7% YoY to 1,119k tons in Oct'26, fuelled by growth in HSD and furnace oil sales. Moreover, on a MoM basis, refinery sales improved by 3.2%. OMC sales declined in Oct'26, with total energy product demand edging down 1% YoY to 1.48 million tons, driven by HSD (-7.3%) and petrol (-2.3%) amid higher fuel prices.

Mohsin Shafi Qureshi of JS Global observed that the KSE-100 index extended its rally, rising 7,477 points (+4.5% WoW) to close at 173,887, as oil prices fell sharply on Iran's openness to talks to end the war, easing concerns over inflation and the external account. Average trading volumes increased 43% WoW to 856 million shares, while traded value rose 24% WoW to $103 million.

Brent crude recorded a steep decline, closing the week at $98.5/barrel compared with last week's average of $115.5. Domestically, petrol and HSD prices were cut by Rs25.32 and Rs20.71 to Rs352.59/litre and Rs382.25/litre, respectively. At the macro level, the October CPI eased to 9.6% YoY from 10.3% in September, while the State Bank-held foreign exchange reserves rose $39 million to $21.56 billion.

During the week, the finance minister shared that the country's external accounts remained comfortable. Separately, the IMF urged Pakistan to widen its tax base, while the FBR chairman indicated the government's intention to abolish the super tax. Additionally, as per the latest data, public debt rose Rs6.2 trillion to Rs91 trillion in FY26. Meanwhile, energy cost pressures persisted, with the CPPA-G seeking an 8% tariff hike and Ogra notifying a 15.3% increase in RLNG prices.