A warning written in ice

The UN's latest cryosphere reports are concerning for any reader, but especially those of us who worry about Pakistan's water, food and security.

Two UN-backed reports warn that overshooting 1.5°C of warming will bring "large-scale and in many cases irreversible impacts" for glaciers, sea ice, permafrost and polar oceans. Warming has already reached 1.37°C, and the 1.5°C threshold could be crossed around 2030. Scientists now believe a truly safe temperature for the Earth's ice is closer to 1°C - meaning even the Paris target is too weak for the cryosphere.

The stakes could not be higher for Pakistan. We have more than 13,000 glaciers, over 3,000 glacial lakes and 33 lakes officially deemed dangerous. The country has recorded about 131 glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and 7.1 million people in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa live with the risk. These glaciers feed the Indus, irrigate the fields and generate hydropower; their accelerated retreat is already increasing floods, landslides and water insecurity.

The reports' central warning and key takeaway is that "every extra fraction of a degree and every year spent in overshoot means more devastating impacts." Pakistan can't fix global warming on its own. As is often stated, the country already has a very small pollution footprint relative to its total population. But it can and should take every feasible effort to mitigate the effects of global warming, starting with better water management, including glacier management. Adaptation must be preemptive, rather than reactive.

The loss of glaciers is a national security threat, and Pakistan needs to demand that the parties responsible for endangering its security take remedial measures. At the upcoming COP31 in Antalya, Pakistan must demand serious climate finance and deep global emissions cuts. Meanwhile, the government must put our own house in order by crafting a credible national cryosphere plan and improving collaboration or even integration among SUPARCO, NDMA, the PMD and provincial authorities.