SPI inflation sticky at 11.85% YoY

Pakistan's weekly Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) rose 0.65% in the week ended October 22, 2026, keeping year-on-year inflation firmly in double digits at 11.85%, according to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics' data. The index, covering 51 essential items across 50 markets in 17 cities, stood at 374.84, up from 372.43 in the previous week and 335.14 a year ago.

While the overall figure underscores persistent price pressures, the lowest consumption quintile (households spending up to Rs17,732 a month) faced a milder 8.45% year-on-year increase and a 0.51% weekly rise, noticeably below the 12.69% annual and 0.74% weekly gains for the highest quintile. This divergence offers a modest breathing space for the most vulnerable, even as broader inflation remains sticky.

Weekly increases were led by liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which surged 22.44%, broiler farm chicken (12.20%), onions (4.19%), shirting (1.86%), plain bread (1.66%) and wheat flour (1%). On the other side, tomatoes plunged 21.99%, petrol fell 3.63%, bananas dropped 2.42% and diesel declined 1.68%, providing some comfort. Of the 51 items, 19 rose, 12 fell and 20 remained unchanged.

On a yearly basis, the pain was more concentrated. LPG was up 107%, onions 73%, electricity charges for Q1 59%, petrol 44%, diesel 42%, chicken 39% and wheat flour 36%. These gains were amplified by global energy shocks. Escalating Houthi attacks linked to the Yemen-Saudi conflict, combined with the US-Iran war, now in its eighth month, drove Brent crude to multi-month highs near or above $112-117 a barrel this week on fears of further disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure. Local fuel prices eased modestly week-on-week, but the year-on-year surge in petrol, diesel and especially LPG continued to feed into transport, cooking and broader household costs.

Furthermore, the monthly headline inflation is projected to rise around 0.9% month-on-month (9.4% year-on-year) despite a food buffer. The energy index is anticipated to play a major role as geopolitical uncertainty continues to grow. Core inflation is projected to rise 0.8% MoM, said Optimus Research.

Energy index may go up 2.6% MoM. Prices of motor fuel and liquefied hydrocarbons are expected to rise around 9.3% and 11.3% MoM, respectively, as global oil nears five-month highs. Resultantly, the housing and transportation baskets are likely to rise 0.7% and 6.7% MoM, respectively.