Carney campaigns against Alberta secession vote

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney campaigned for national unity in oil-rich Alberta on Thursday, warning that a vote against Canada could trigger years of uncertainty ahead of a referendum on whether the province should pursue independence.

Polling suggests fewer than a quarter of Alberta's roughly five million residents support separation. However, Carney, who grew up in the western province, cautioned against relying on surveys to predict the outcome.

"Polls don't vote," he told a rally in Calgary, Alberta's largest city, describing the referendum as coming at the worst possible time. He warned that a vote against Canada would be a "dangerous bluff" that could cost the province opportunities and create prolonged uncertainty.

Alberta's right-wing Premier Danielle Smith opposes independence but has backed Monday's non-binding vote as a way to settle the divisive issue. She has pledged to initiate a legally binding separation process if a majority votes in favour, while ruling out another referendum if voters choose to remain in Canada.

Mitch Sylvestre, head of the Alberta Prosperity Project, a prominent separatist organisation, told AFP he believed the movement could win, expressing surprise at the prospect of receiving less than 40% support.

Carney has placed Alberta's oil industry at the heart of his economic strategy, backing a new pipeline and other projects to boost crude production and reduce Canada's dependence on the United States. Carney warned that outside forces were seeking to divide Canada.

Ryan Griffiths, a Syracuse University professor specialising in secessionist movements, said Alberta was unusual because its separatist campaign was driven largely by economic grievances, rather than a distinct linguistic or nationalist identity.

The movement has also attracted scrutiny over alleged contacts with allies of US President Donald Trump. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has described Alberta as a "natural partner" for the United States, while separatist representatives have held meetings at the State Department.

Carney warned that outside forces were seeking to divide Canada. Asked about possible foreign interference, he said the United States and other governments should not involve themselves in Canadian elections, just as Canada did not interfere in theirs.

Asked about possible foreign interference, the prime minister said that the United States and other governments should not involve themselves in Canadian elections, just as Canada did not interfere in theirs.