What next?
The writer is a political, security and defence analyst. He tweets @shazchy09 and can be contacted at shhzdchdhry@yahoo.com
The test of any policy initiative, even if it involves showing an elected government out, is to ask the question: What next? In the case of K-P, where the PTI was shown the door, this question has assumed even greater relevance. In a way, the dissonance between the K-P/PTI and the Centre had been pervasive, and what ensued was the culmination of a long feud, misplaced or not. Whether it could have been avoided with better political management and honest and sincere coordination between the federation and a federating unit remains moot. PTI could have done a better job of its role and function – unless the aim was to only show the federal government down.
A standing threat to its political existence as a party and its government in K-P could have been avoided with a better sense of the dilemma that rode its prospects. From better governance to avoiding the pitfalls of keeping a feud going, there were off-ramps it could have taken. Instead, we have a situation of a drastic breakdown in which no side wins.
One thing is clear, though, that the responsibility to bring the change in K-P now rests with a single authority: the governor, his advisory council, his party, or the Centre that he represents with a single purpose to bring peace to a militarised province where cumulative failures of the past have only wrought strife and turmoil. Terror events in the province have increased manifold – there is a list being circulated from reliable quarters in support of why the intervention was inescapable.
That gives birth to two separate issues emanating from the Governor's rule and Emergency being simultaneously imposed on K-P: one, the PTI, its status, its relevance to national politics and its prospects in the future political architecture – especially given that the system is as pervasive as it is. This raises issues of fidelity and domains, but they are better left aside in the current environment. Second is the urgency to bring peace back to a troubled province with a consistent policy and strategy to eliminate terrorism and any signs of insurgency.
Political inadequacies, in this case of the PTI, of which the instances are too many to quote – beginning with its own governance record at the Centre and how it had permitted outside influence to mar democratic culture, to the dismissal of the two provincial assemblies that it still held the power over after it lost its government in April 2022, to now – when lack of conception in what might still help in its most trying times gave way to knocking heads against walls for want of creative choices. The party ran out of ideas and political choices as soon as it set itself on the path to what would be an ideological struggle. It was a case of visionless leadership and visionless politics.
In Pakistan, it is easy to place the Establishment in the dock over any or the slightest pretext, but if that be the only purpose of politics, there better be other things to do for those who indulge in it. In the end, this, and the only political impulse PTI exhibited, led to its demise. It can apply generically to the brand of politics in Pakistan across the board, but the others have negotiated their existence around those inadequacies. If it mars the credibility of democracy, it is for the unfortunate people of Pakistan who have no choice and no better hope.
The Centre now better get its act together. Failure can only be debilitating. Not only because terror will rule the roost in K-P, and further inland if we are that unfortunate, but it will engender outside control in a region of Pakistan with a record of ethnic affiliations that have tended to diffuse national boundaries. It is possible to regain control of all our regions, whether that be of the twelve districts where terrorism has found permanence under foreign elements, or of the entire province. We have done it before, and we can do it again. The duration, and the efficacy with which these operations are conducted, will decide if local hearts and minds will stand with the effort. If not, God forbid, the results can be entirely counterproductive; nay, dangerous to the foundations of the federation and its integrity. The failure of politics to coexist and to find a workable via media has rendered the nation to such risks. Failure in the new construct is not an option.
PTI too has its task cut out. If it seeks to find relevance in politics through its adversarial stand-off with the Establishment alone, it can only be self-defeating. While we may go on and on to seek some rationale in how the military has gained such eminence in our national make-up, we may never be able to resolve the conundrum to its desired end; it shall have to be the redefinition of politics and its characteristics away from what it has become in Pakistan – self-serving and rapacious – to being more purposeful in the interest of the people and the state. Rent-seeking and extraction must give way to a more grounded, realistic approach to policy choices in the interest of the common man. Currently, it is only the elites and those in power who benefit from the policies that have pushed the country to the brink. The politics being practised is not only irrelevant, it has also rendered it unsustainable for the needs of the country and its people.
Similarly, PTI will need to reinvent itself if it must sustain. Its purpose, its defining characteristics and its ethos will need a different thought process and a separate set of leaders who still wish to challenge the duopoly of the two other main political contenders. That is a great purpose. But then to be distracted by taking on fights which do not fall into your pale not only changes the character but the structure or the lack of it, and the means to that ill-defined aim. A party turns into a mob. If it must still be relevant, it must quickly revert to being a political party. Personalised enmities cannot be permitted to translate into institutional stand-offs. Such events are only episodic in nature, while political parties have a long-term aim and purpose which they cannot sacrifice at the altar of misplaced short-termism and in getting even with individuals.
Pakistan is once again at the crossroads. This one is self-created and self-imposed. Now that we have created a situation of our own making, we must navigate through it too with shared responsibility and equanimity. Showing dust to an adversary may be gladiatorial, but it isn't the stuff of nation-building. Its absence in our recent politics has brought us to this point; it is incumbent now upon all to help rebuild what we have broken.