On the path to self-destruct

In missile warfare, when a weapon goes astray, either losing guidance or suffering a malfunction, a switch activates within it to what is called self-destruct. It explodes the weapon in the air to avoid unnecessary damage to unintended targets on the ground – there is chivalry in technology too. In the, for now, failed talks between the government and the opposition (read: PTI), the missile is in an uncontrolled mode. Not all missiles carry this benevolent self-destruct option; some still go ahead and hit what they can, intended or unintended, but this one is surely on self-destruct. Whatever way you look at it, government or the opposition, unless one or both change their approach to the issues they want resolved, both are on the way to mutual assured destruction (MAD). A common man will be hardly interested as to what fate awaits each, except that the stakes are just too many for him to ignore what may befall.

What is at stake? Once again, another province, another ethnic definition, another governmental attitude towards a people of another region with highly sensitised sub-national identity, and the horrendous possibility of another nightmarish eventuality. We only need to recall 1971. And for those of us around then, the spectre is fearful. We know the mistakes that the powerful made then, agitating and reinforcing the narrative that gave cause to the millions who suffered, and a nation that was broken in bloodshed and tears. Today, the lessons stand out as clear as crystal: the politics was patently self-serving; hunger for exclusive power and control was at its peak; and the failure of politics led to the ultimate clash between armed force and the people. The country and the nation were forsaken at the altar of personal aggrandisement and exclusivity of power.

I don't think the K-P Chief Minister knows exactly where it is going to end. He has rolled the dice. Soon it will pick momentum and roll in directions beyond his control. One wrong slogan, one ill-intended induction of a sentiment, and the mob will attain its own dynamic and purpose quite different from what Sohail Afridi may have ever imagined. Any effort to intervene physically to break the momentum before then will only enhance the process. Governments are powerful, and prone to overuse force. And in so doing, only add fuel to the fire. March 25, 1971 did not just fall into our midst from the sky or land one day from Mars. It took years in the making. Maybe decades. And we let it slip and slide till it was so out of control that we could only contend with force. The trick is to never let the mass develop. No mass, no momentum. However, it remains an impossibility where sentiments easily charge in ethnic colours. What was so easily achieved in Punjab is not possible in K-P for known reasons. Dialogue, then, is the only way out.

And there is an ongoing war in K-P with groups supported by neighbouring adversaries. The military and the law-enforcement agencies already have their hands full. In war, secure lines of interior are critical to success on the battlefront. How can the entire province be in a state of agitation and chaos if the fight at the front must be won? And before the cost of peace in depth becomes beyond reparation, it would be better to trade the smaller loss for a greater gain. The smaller loss was obvious and on the table; somehow, we let it lapse either because of brinksmanship, loss of face, or once again, patent political interests. We let politics overtake national purpose. And this is true for both sides. But the government in charge is principally responsible for doing the right thing. And the right thing is to do the least damage to national cohesion and territorial solidarity, even if it entails a political cost and a loss of face. The more we delay and dither, the higher the cost we pay to retrieve the moment of repair and concurrence. If we fail at it totally, the dissonance and strife will consume us in physical terms, breaking us apart. We have been there, seen it, and suffered. We don't wish to ever repeat it.

Afridi and his PTI are net gainers, in a perverse way, just as the conceivers of Bangladesh were to many – it does not relieve Imran Khan, though, of his instant predicaments. From their perch, as they see more and understand more, they only need to play the waiting game till the government closes all its options and touches the ebb of its ill-considered reaction. If indeed force, whether constitutional, legal or physical, is employed, the natural consequence is an inevitable clash. That will only accrue insecure depth and highly tenuous lines of interior. We have seen it all and know the consequences. When politics fails, mostly for incompetence or ulterior motives, it takes the convenient back seat, pushing the military forward toward the feared clash.

What was on the table for the PTI to gain was lost for fear of being castigated and an incompetent comprehension of the situation or its possible consequences. Imran Khan would have won full medical attention and regular visits from the family and lawyers under jail rules, which could have expanded to even better terms as confidence improved over time between the party and the government. K-P and its government would have saved the day for Pakistan and its own people from going under the hammer of another ill-considered resort to emergency and summary measures, deepening the sociopolitical divide. A better understanding of the operational environment in the province would have found both the security apparatus and the province working hand in hand to carve a more effective strategy to fight terror and its manifestations intending harm to Pakistan.

Their fears around their political legacy instead took over and held them back from a more gainful outcome of the talks, especially when the flip side is greatly more disconcerting and injurious. The PTI leadership at the talks, not in the province alone, failed the moment and missed the bus, once again. Lady luck does not come calling as often. When it does, seizing the moment is what counts. Ruing the day after does not.

Perhaps there is still time as Afridi orbits the province and develops a wake and a momentum that will only gain in strength and intensity. The surest way to stop him is to intervene through an offer that he cannot refuse. What that is will be the test of the leadership in Islamabad and their commitment to prioritising national stakes over personal and political feuds. It is not about who holds greater force, but who saves the nation from distress and disaffection.