The Pak-Afghan deadlock

A fresh diplomatic effort by Turkey and Qatar to ease tensions between Islamabad and Kabul is facing an immediate test after the deadly terrorist attack on a police mosque in Kohat, with Pakistani authorities linking one of the suicide bombers to Afghanistan. Turkish intelligence chief Ibrahim Kalin travelled to Kabul last week, where he held talks with senior Taliban officials. A senior Qatari security official also visited the Afghan capital. Kalin subsequently travelled to Islamabad, where he met Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Field Marshal Asim Munir and ISI chief Lt Gen Asim Malik.

Turkey and Qatar have previously played a role in facilitating contacts between Islamabad and Kabul, while China has also brought the two sides together through the Urumqi process. But Pakistan's position has remained unchanged: it is willing to talk, but wants Kabul to take verifiable action against the banned TTP, which Islamabad accuses of using Afghan territory to launch attacks inside Pakistan. The Taliban regime denies the allegations.

For Islamabad, however, assurances are no longer sufficient. The latest Kohat terrorist attack has further complicated the diplomatic effort. Pakistani authorities say one of the suicide bombers has been identified as an Afghan national, providing fresh ammunition to Islamabad's longstanding argument that terrorist networks continue to find space across the border. Pakistan has also reported repeated attempts by terrorists to cross the border and carry out attacks.

The concerns highlighted by Islamabad are also reflected in international assessments of the security situation in Afghanistan. A recent South Asia Times study, "Taliban 2.0: The Five-Year Ledger", estimates that more than 20 terrorist organisations are operating in Afghanistan alongside thousands of foreign fighters. It also highlights the continuing presence of the TTP and the scale of attacks attributed to the group inside Pakistan. Its broader assessment raises questions about how much the security environment in Afghanistan has changed since the Taliban returned to power in 2021. The study also revisits the prisoner releases associated with the Doha peace process. Research published in 2020 on released Taliban prisoners found that a large majority subsequently returned to the insurgency or took up military and political roles within the Taliban movement. That finding is relevant to the debate over whether the assumptions underpinning the Doha process produced the desired outcome.

That the Taliban now run the state, control the security apparatus and exercise authority over the country has made Pakistan's argument more pointed. If Kabul is now a government, Islamabad argues, it carries responsibility for preventing terrorist groups from operating from territory under its control. That is also the central challenge facing the latest Turkish and Qatari mediation effort.

The issue is not a lack of communication. Islamabad and Kabul continue to maintain channels of contact. Nor is there a shortage of mediators. Turkey, Qatar and China have all been involved in efforts to facilitate dialogue. The difficulty is that the two sides remain fundamentally divided over the question of terrorism. Pakistan wants action against the TTP. Kabul has so far failed to provide the assurances that Islamabad considers credible and verifiable. The latest diplomatic initiative could help reopen political channels and reduce tensions. But the Kohat attack demonstrates how quickly security developments can undermine such efforts.

For Pakistan, the choice is not between diplomacy and confrontation. It continues to keep the door open to dialogue while insisting that its security concerns must be addressed. The problem is that unless there is a visible change in Kabul's approach towards the TTP and other terrorist groups, there is little basis for expecting a major breakthrough. Turkey and Qatar may succeed in bringing the two sides back to the table. But whether that produces anything beyond another round of talks will ultimately depend on what happens on the ground.