Trust in economic strength drops

The number of people believing in the strength of Pakistan's economy has further decreased to 14% of respondents, with only one in seven persons seeing the economy as strong, while electricity load-shedding has become one of the top five concerns, according to a new wave of an independent survey.

According to Ipsos, one in seven Pakistanis believes the economy is strong, with optimism relatively higher among men, adults, the upper class, and residents of Punjab and Sindh. The ratio was one in five just four months ago, indicating a further dip in people's perception of the economy.

The report said that the perception of economic strength declined by 6% from last quarter, reflecting the aftereffects of the US-Iran conflict and signalling renewed economic concerns. Likewise, one in four Pakistanis expects the economy to strengthen, with optimism stronger among urbanites, affluent groups, and in Balochistan.

People have been exposed to the global fuel price shocks coupled with higher taxation, which is an outcome of a poorly negotiated deal with the International Monetary Fund, causing up to Rs116 per litre tax on petrol.

According to Tola Associates, the prices of petrol and diesel in dollar terms are the highest in Pakistan in the South Asian region despite a weaker local currency. The government has been constantly increasing the prices of petrol and diesel, which has already pushed inflation into double digits.

According to the Ipsos survey, the increase in inflation remained the single largest concern of Pakistanis, followed by unemployment, poverty and the hike in electricity prices. Electricity load-shedding has now become the fifth biggest concern of Pakistanis, higher than the burden of additional taxes.

The survey showed that two out of the five major concerns – electricity prices and its load-shedding – relate to the performance of the Power Division. Ipsos said that economic concerns remain dominant, with inflation declining by 9% but still at 69% and unemployment easing by 68%, while concerns over poverty rise by 5%. Worries about electricity prices increase by 9% to 35%, alongside a 2% rise in concerns over additional taxes.

According to another Ipsos survey, only one in three Pakistanis believe the government has effectively ensured fuel availability, with higher confidence among older adults, the middle-class group, women, Punjab and rural residents, while three in 10 hold the opposite view

Two in five Pakistanis believe the government has managed fuel prices ineffectively compared with three in 10 who believe it has been effective; public opinion is sharply divided across regions and demographics.

Along with deterioration in perception about economic strength, only 15% of Pakistanis are confident about investing, with confidence relatively higher among females, urban residents, Sindh and Punjab residents, affluent groups, and youth.

Only 16% of Pakistanis feel secure in their jobs, with relatively higher confidence among females, urbanites, Punjab residents, lower middle-class groups, and youth. Confidence in job security declines to 16%, returning to the same level as in August 2024, highlighting continued caution around job security, according to the survey.

Only one in four Pakistanis believe the country is on the right track, with optimism higher among females, middle & lower classes, rural residents, and in Punjab & Baluchistan. Surprisingly, some 31% of respondents in Balochistan believe that the country is going in the right direction compared to 14% in K-P, 26% in Punjab and 21% in Sindh.

Ipsos Pakistan Managing Director Abdul Sattar said that the third quarter of the year story is one of cautious recovery rather than full confidence. While economic pressures continue to dominate Pakistanis' concerns, sentiment is gradually improving at the personal level, with stronger expectations for the future and greater comfort with household spending, he added.

Sattar said that low confidence in investment, major purchases and job security shows that Pakistanis are not yet ready to translate this optimism into stronger financial commitments.

Also, only one in 10 Pakistanis feel comfortable with household purchases, with comfort highest among urbanites, upper-middle class groups, youth, and residents of Punjab and Sindh. Comfort in making household purchases rises to 10%, indicating a return to stabilisation after a dip last quarter.

Personal financial situation declines sharply to 19%, down 12%, with relatively higher sentiment among youth and adults, men, urban residents, Sindh and K-P, and upper-income groups.

Only one in seven Pakistanis expresses confidence, with confidence higher among urbanites, Sindh residents, affluent groups and youth.