Short-term inflation sticky at 9.04%
Pakistan's Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) remained sticky at 9.04% year-on-year for the week ended August 27 as energy costs tied to the prolonged disruption of oil and gas traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continued to dominate the essentials basket, even after a sharp fall in tomato and chicken prices trimmed the weekly reading to just 0.05%.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) put the combined SPI at 361.07, against 360.90 a week earlier and 331.14 in the corresponding week of 2025. The annual figure eased only modestly from 9.66% last week, underscoring how imported fuel and cooking gas shocks have become embedded in household prices since US-Iran hostilities erupted in late February and tanker flows through the chokepoint collapsed from more than 20 million barrels per day to a fraction of that level.
That stickiness is most visible in energy. Over the year, the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) was up 55.66% to Rs4,631.66 per 11.67kg cylinder, diesel up 36.33% to Rs373.81 per litre, petrol Super up 29.84% to Rs345.14 per litre, and first-slab electricity charges up 25.24% to Rs6.45 a unit.
The same items also led the week-on-week rise: LPG jumped 3.46%, diesel 2.44%, Q1 electricity charges 2.06% and petrol 1.71%, after the government continued daily fuel price revisions amid volatile Gulf markets.
Food still adds to the annual burden. Onions remained 125.86% dearer than a year ago, wheat flour was higher by 45.28%, tomatoes 36.69%, chilli powder 16.37%, mutton 16.01%, bananas 14.50%, beef 13.61% and plain bread 9.37%.
Analysts have separately linked part of the flour and energy pressure to tighter fertiliser and LNG supplies after Qatari cargoes through Hormuz were interrupted.
Week-on-week, perishables provided the major relief. Tomato prices plunged 18.65% to Rs192 per kg, chicken was down 4.41%, onions 2.87%, bananas 2.80% and garlic 1.02%. Rice and potato costs also eased. Gram pulse, wheat flour and eggs showed small increases. Of the 51 items monitored, 20 rose, 11 fell and 20 stood unchanged.
The weekly relief was concentrated among poorer households. The lowest four quintiles recorded week-on-week declines of 0.17%, 0.10%, 0.08% and 0.07%. The top group, having monthly spending above Rs44,175, rose 0.13%, lifting the combined index. Year-on-year, Q1 inflation was 8.76% and Q2 registered the highest level of 9.35%.
Annual declines remained limited to a handful of items: potatoes were down 31.33%, chicken 23.87%, sugar 19.33%, eggs 17.97%, salt powder 13.96%, gram pulse 12.01% and masoor pulse 11.77%.