Bagh-Haveli vote to test PML-N's dominance

Polling will be held in four constituencies of Bagh and Haveli on Monday (today), marking the third scheduled phase of the 2026 general elections to the Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) Legislative Assembly, with the outcome expected to significantly affect the formation of the next government.

The Election Commission (AJKEC) has completed polling arrangements, while candidates and their supporters have intensified last-minute voter-contact campaigns following the expiry of the formal campaign period. Special security measures are in place at sensitive and highly sensitive polling stations to ensure a peaceful electoral process.

A total of 460,371 registered voters, including 238,664 men and 221,707 women, are eligible to cast their ballots in the four constituencies. The AJKEC established 803 polling stations with 1,254 polling booths for the exercise.

Eighty-two candidates are contesting the four seats, making the third phase one of the most closely watched contests of the AJK elections.

The electoral battle features several prominent political figures. AJK Prime Minister Faisal Rathore is contesting from Haveli, while former prime ministers Sardar Attique Ahmed Khan and Sardar Tanveer Ilyas Khan are among the major candidates in Bagh and Dhirkot. PML-N Senior Vice President Mushtaq Minhas is also in the electoral race.

Other prominent contestants include Awam Dast-e-Bazu party candidate Sajid Iqbal Abbasi from Dhirkot and Khawaja Tariq Saeed from Haveli. JI candidate and prominent educationist Brig (retd) Muhammad Khan, PPP candidates Zia-ul-Qamar and Qamar Zaman, and PML-N candidates Mir Akbar and Mohsin Aziz are also expected to be key players in their respective constituencies. PML-N's Faisal Azad is another strong contender in Dhirkot.

The Bagh-Haveli contests are particularly significant because the PML-N emerged as the leading party after the first two phases. However, the third phase is expected to produce a number of closely fought battles involving the PPP, the PML-N, the JI, the Muslim Conference, the IPP, independents and other political groups.

Polling will begin at 8am and continue until 5pm, according to the election commission. Voters have been directed to bring their original national identity cards and cast their ballots at their designated polling stations.

Comprehensive security arrangements have been made across the constituencies, with police and other law-enforcement personnel deployed at polling stations.

Additional personnel have been earmarked for sensitive areas, while security agencies have been directed to maintain law and order and respond promptly to any untoward incident.

The PML-N currently enjoys a clear lead after the first two phases, but the third phase could determine how close individual parties come to securing the numbers required to form the next government.

The campaign in Bagh remained particularly intense over the past several weeks, with the PML-N, the PPP, the Muslim Conference, the IPP and independent candidates holding public meetings, corner meetings and extensive door-to-door campaigns. Candidates used the final hours of campaigning to urge voters to turn out in support of their respective parties and electoral symbols.

Political observers believe local political alignments, tribal influence, the personal standing of candidates, development issues, party affiliations and the broader political situation in AJK could play important roles in determining the final outcome. Haveli is also expected to witness a closely fought contest, with candidates seeking to consolidate their positions before polling.

Chief Election Commissioner Justice (retd) Ghulam Mustafa Mughal instructed polling staff to remain impartial and strictly follow the electoral code of conduct. Measures have also been taken to prevent violations of election laws, including restrictions governing activities inside polling stations.

Justice Mughal said elections in Bagh and Haveli would effectively complete the third scheduled phase of the 2026 AJK general elections. Elections for two seats in Sudhnoti and five seats in Rawalakot are likely to be held later, potentially by August 20, subject to the prevailing political situation.

The CEC said vote counting would begin at the respective polling stations immediately after polling ends. Candidates' polling agents will be allowed to remain present during the counting process and obtain copies of the results in accordance with election procedures.

The Bagh-Haveli vote is therefore being closely watched not merely as a contest between individual candidates, but as a crucial test of the political balance emerging in AJK after the first two phases.

The first two phases have given the PML-N a strong advantage, but the outcome of the remaining contests could determine the final configuration of the assembly. With the third phase now set to begin, all major political parties have turned their attention to the final electoral arithmetic.