US-Iran war is ending. Pakistan won.

The trilateral defence pact signed between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey on Friday is the culmination of a series of events that have led to Pakistan cementing its position as the key beneficiary of the geo-political churn. Here are ten reasons that explain Pakistan's strategic elevation.

1. Maximum gain in six months: Pakistan has won without firing a bullet. This "win" is of course not literal but relative to the gains and losses of all concerned countries from the pre-to-post war scenario. In this period, we have facilitated belligerents to the negotiating table, reinforced the leverage of our hard power, and gained greater strategic space through imaginative and deft diplomacy. No other country has traversed greater distance and gained a larger profile since February 27, 2026.

2. From South Asia to West Asia: Pakistan has expanded its strategic geography from a South Asian country locked into a hostile relationship with India to being a net stability provider for the region. This term (or its derivative) is now increasingly being used to describe how Pakistan has utilized its relationships with all key stakeholders in the region and beyond to shape diplomacy and spearhead a new security architecture for the region. Since the signing of the trilateral pact on Friday, analysts and commentators from India to Israel to Istanbul, to Saudi Arabia to Washington and London are now acknowledging that Pakistan has emerged as a key middle power and is central to rapidly evolving geo-political order in the region.

3. Irony of Guns vs Butter debate: The heavy expenditure on the military has always been considered a weakness for Pakistan in the traditional 'Guns vs Butter' debate. Those arguing for peace with India so we can reduce money spent on weapons have always maintained that this very aspect – too much resources for the military – are the primary reason for our underdevelopment. In theory, this argument holds weight. But in the peculiar times we live in today, Pakistan's strong hard power (including nuclear weapons) have turned out to be our strongest advantage. Hard power is now the currency that holds most immediate value. Pakistan still needs butter – plenty of it – but our guns have acquired high value.

4. Demonstrating usability of hard power: In the current conflict, USA has discovered the limits of its hard power, while Iran has discovered the power of its geo-strategic advantage. But Pakistan alone has shown the management and calibration of hard power both through its effective employment and deployment. In the Maarka-e-Haq victory over India in May 2005, Pakistan displayed superior air power by humiliating the Indian air force on the first night, and later demonstrated its rocketry prowess. Hard power was tested against a larger and powerful adversary and it delivered results. The deployment of hard power with Saudi Arabia as part of the bilateral defence pact in recent months is also evidence of Pakistan's ability and willingness to utilise hard power in pursuit of diplomatic and military interests.

5. Stability vs security provider: This key distinction defines the core of Pakistan's strategic success in the last six month. It has acted as a source of stability more than just a proponent of security. Pakistan strengthened Saudi Arabia's deterrence without antagonizing Iran; it facilitated the United States without upsetting China; it interacted with American, Iranian, Saudi, Qatari, Kuwaiti, Bahraini, and Turkish leadership even many most among them were locked in an active conflict. It managed to crisscross various Gulf and US-Iran deeply embedded fault lines without triggering suspicion, antagonism or protests from those weaponizing these fault lines. Pakistan now is a source of security for many of the nations in the region, but it has emerged as the primary source of stability for the entire region.

6. Trilateral pact institutionalizes Pakistan stability role: In this defence pact, Saudi Arabia brings to the table its financial muscle and leadership status among the Gulf nations; Turkey brings its NATO experience, impressive conventional military prowess and defence production capacity that is growing both in scale and technological sophistication. Pakistan however brings to the table something unique: the only nuclear power in the Muslim world that boasts tried and tested conventional military strength, a battle-hardened force, and a diplomatic outreach that spans across global and regional players. The trilateral pact – with Pakistan having played a central role in its formation – is likely to become the centre of gravity for the new security and stability architecture of West Asia, Middle East and even beyond to the Mediterranean.

7. India as the Net Loser: Narendra Modi's India suffers from a serious ailment: its obsession with Pakistan. Now that's come back to bite where it hurts the most. As the global order tailspins from a unipolar to a multipolar one, India is finding itself not just losing relevance in the new scheme of things, it is in fact becoming part of the problem. Militarily defeated in May last year, and diplomatically adrift since February this year, India seems to be clutching at the only hand that the entire world happens to be shunning: Israel. Nothing illustrates India's isolation more than the fact that the signing of the trilateral defence pact has triggered Indian commentators to demand signing something similar with the world's most isolated and most hated country. This is, arguably, India's worst hour in decades.

8. India's unkindest cut – watching Pakistan's rise: The Pakistan-India balance has decidedly shifted in favour of Pakistan. As India slides into diplomatic disarray, Pakistan has strengthened its deterrent capacity through deeper political and military engagements with countries that matter. The trigger-happy BJP leadership and its saffronised media will have to now think twice (or thrice) before embarking on any foolish misadventure. Pakistan has, in relative terms, gained much more heft and accumulated much more strategic capital in the last six months than India has. Our new India policy should reflect this in stark terms.

9. Acknowledgement from friend and foe: The significance of the trilateral defence pact and Pakistan's role is reflected clearly in the commentary across media platforms. I have read analysis by experts from India, Israel, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, US and Europe, and almost across the board there is acknowledgement that Pakistan has emerged as one of the most important powers from the US-Iran war. Israelis and Indians are now increasingly concerned about our growing role, Iranians realise we are crucial to peace and stability, Saudis and Turks of course have joined with us to formalize the new power arrangement, and US and European commentators, while mourning the depleting effectiveness of the US as a global stability provider, are branding Pakistan as a middle power that has become central to the regional stability matrix.

10. But Pakistan's domestic problems persist: The contrast between our rising diplomatic and military stature and the domestic governance failures could not be starker. We just cannot afford governance failures that are keeping us weak politically, economically and socially. The status quo is unlikely to persist.

The churn has begun. Buckle up.