Breather in weekly SPI, YoY pace persists
Pakistani households received some respite this week as the Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) registered a notable decline of 0.45% for the week ended July 9, 2026, but the year-on-year reading remained in stubborn double digits.
The decline offered partial relief amid easing global oil prices linked to the recent US-Iran peace deal.
The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) reported that the combined SPI stood at 352.66 points, down from 354.24 points in the previous week. The drop was primarily driven by sharp reductions in prices of essential items, including tomatoes (23.30%), LPG (15.12%), pulse moong (2.15%), petrol (0.69%), and diesel (0.63%).
Other items that recorded declines were pulse masoor (0.52%), sugar (0.07%), and mustard oil (0.06%).
The softening of international oil prices following the US-Iran agreement has begun to translate into lower domestic fuel and energy costs, contributing to the weekly easing in the SPI. Market participants suggested that improved supply prospects and reduced geopolitical tensions eased some pressure on transportation and household energy expenses.
On the flip side, prices of several food items increased during the week. Potatoes rose 3.94%, chicken 3.70%, onions 3.54%, wheat flour 1.61%, eggs 0.81%, beef 0.59%, cooked daal 0.58%, fresh milk 0.50%, and washing soap 0.44%.
Out of the 51 items monitored across 17 cities, prices of 22 items (43.14%) increased, eight items (15.69%) decreased, and 21 items (41.17%) remained unchanged.
Year-on-year, the SPI maintained a double-digit pace of 11.94%, reflecting persistent inflationary pressures. Major YoY increases were recorded in tomatoes (129.01%), onions (76.34%), wheat flour (71.22%), electricity charges (49.14%), gas charges (29.85%), and LPG (25.51%). However, notable declines were seen in potatoes (35.89%), pulse gram (22.23%), chicken (21.32%), and sugar (20.98%).
The impact varied across consumption quintiles. The lowest expenditure group (Q1) saw a weekly decline of 0.36% with YoY inflation at 12.53%, while the highest group (Q5) recorded the steepest weekly drop of 0.55% and YoY rise of 10.10%.
To recall, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 11.1% year-on-year in June 2026 as compared to a surge of 11.7% in the previous month and 3.2% in June 2025. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased 0.3% in June 2026 as compared to an increase of 0.5% in the previous month and an increase of 0.2% in June 2025.
CPI inflation in urban areas rose 11.2% year-on-year in June 2026 as compared to a hike of 11.8% in the previous month and an increase of 3% in June 2025. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased 0.5% in June 2026 as compared to an increase of 0.7% in the previous month and an increase of 0.1% in June 2025.
CPI inflation in rural areas went up by 10.9% year-on-year in June 2026 as compared to a rise of 11.5% in the previous month and an increase of 3.6% in June 2025. Month-on-month, no change was observed in June 2026 as compared to an increase of 0.3% in the previous month and a rise of 0.5% in June 2025.
Meanwhile, the Pakistani rupee settled at 278.05 against the US dollar in the inter-bank market on Friday, gaining one paisa from Thursday's close at 278.06. Globally, the greenback eased slightly but was poised to end the week largely unchanged, as safe-haven demand was offset by fading expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike.
Furthermore, gold prices in Pakistan declined, mirroring losses in the international market. In the local market, the price of gold per tola dropped Rs1,400 to Rs432,436, while 10-gram gold fell Rs1,200 to Rs370,744, according to the All-Pakistan Gems and Jewellers Sarafa Association.
Internationally, gold prices slipped $14 to $4,100 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver prices increased by Rs11 to Rs6,432 per tola.