Climate cuts in the age of looming ecological crises

As Pakistan endures another summer of extreme heat, mounting water stress and increasingly erratic weather patterns, the latest federal budget raises important questions about whether climate resilience remains a national priority.

The Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination received just Rs2.48 billion under the federal PSDP, an 83 per cent reduction from the Climate Change Division's Rs14.3 billion development allocation in FY2021-22. The sharp decline sits uneasily with Pakistan's growing vulnerability to climate related disasters.

It is true that climate-related spending is no longer confined to the Climate Ministry. Investments with climate relevance are now being spread across water management, flood control, energy, irrigation, sanitation, disaster management and provincial development programmes. The budget also includes modest allocations for urban resilience and institutional strengthening. Yet, the sharp reduction in the Ministry's own development allocation raises important questions about building institutional capacity to coordinate climate mitigation. As the federal government's lead climate body, the Climate Ministry is supposed to play a critical role in coordinating adaptation efforts. A reduction in its funding risks weakening this coordinating function at a time when climate challenges are becoming increasingly complex.

The Climate Ministry's development allocation also raises questions about emergent policy priorities. Approximately 94 per cent of its PSDP allocation is earmarked for the Green Pakistan Programme. Afforestation and ecosystem restoration are important components of climate policy, but they cannot substitute for a comprehensive adaptation strategy. Pakistan's most pressing climate challenges today include water scarcity, extreme heat, floods, droughts, glacier retreat, and the growing vulnerability of cities and agricultural systems. Addressing these risks requires going beyond tree plantation and making sustained investment in water conservation, groundwater recharge, urban drainage, early warning systems, climate resilient agriculture, disaster preparedness and building stronger local governments.

Since the catastrophic floods of 2022, Pakistan has experienced repeated heatwaves, worsening drought conditions in parts of Balochistan and Sindh, continued glacier retreat, and growing pressure on already scarce water resources. From Jacobabad and Sibi to Multan and Rahim Yar Khan, parts of Pakistan are already experiencing some of the most dangerous heat conditions recorded anywhere in the world.

Pakistan's fiscal constraints are undoubtedly severe. Debt servicing consumes a large share of public expenditure, leaving limited fiscal space for new initiatives. Yet climate adaptation is not an environmental luxury; it is an economic and developmental necessity.

Pakistan needs a coherent national approach to climate resilience that coordinates spending across sectors, strengthens adaptation planning and mobilises finance from diverse sources.

The government has introduced climate-related fiscal measures, including a Climate Support Levy and an electric vehicle adoption levy, while expanding climate budget tagging across federal expenditures. These initiatives represent important steps toward integrating climate considerations into fiscal policy. However, there is little public information on whether revenues generated through these measures will be dedicated to climate action, and how they will be monitored and linked to measurable adaptation and resilience outcomes.

As climate risks intensify, resilience cannot be pursued through fragmented institutions and ad hoc projects. It requires a coordinated national strategy backed by sustained political commitment, capable institutions and long-term investment. The cost of strengthening resilience today is likely to be far lower than the cost of repeatedly rebuilding after the next disaster.