SBP maintains interest rates at 11.5%

MPC keeps policy rate unchanged amid oil volatility eases post US-Iran deal

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Monday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11.5%. This marks the fourth MPC meeting of 2026.

The decision came after the central bank had raised the rate by 100 basis points in its previous meeting on April 27, against the market expectations at the time. Monday’s announcement reflected a cautious approach amid mixed signals on inflation and external risks.

"The Central Bank (SBP) has kept the policy rate unchanged at 11.5% in today’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. This came in line with our expectations," stated Topline in an X post.

The Monetary Policy Committee decided to keep the policy rate unchanged at 11.5 percent in its meeting held on June 15, 2026.#SBPMonetaryPolicy

— SBP (@StateBank_Pak) June 15, 2026

Market experts had shown divided opinions ahead of the meeting. According to a poll by Topline Securities, 49% of respondents anticipated no change, while another 49% expected a hike, with 34% forecasting a 50bps increase and 15% a 100bps rise. Only 2% predicted a cut of up to 50bps.

Topline Securities attributed the uncertainty largely to volatility in global oil prices. “Our view of the status quo is backed by efforts taken by involved parties in the war and active mediation by Pakistan,” the brokerage noted.

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) echoed a similar sentiment, stating that market expectations were aligned with a cautious hold. “While views remain divided between status quo and a modest hike, easing oil-price and geopolitical pressures have reduced the probability of another increase,” PIDE said.

However, it added that still-elevated inflation and expectation risks make a rate cut premature. The MPC’s decision came on the heels of significant positive developments on the global front.

Read More: SBP hikes interest rates by 100 basis points to 11.5%

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on Monday that the United States and Iran had reached a deal to end their conflict. The pact calls for the “immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” with an official signing ceremony scheduled for Friday in Switzerland.

Analysts believe this breakthrough could help stabilise oil prices and ease imported inflation pressures for Pakistan, supporting the central bank’s decision to pause further tightening. The MPC is expected to continue monitoring core inflation, fiscal developments, and external account indicators in the coming months.