Winds of change

As Pakistan starts its eightieth year, there are clear indications that it is about to experience major changes. The rumblings are real. So is the urgency.

Here's where we stand:

1. The 28th Amendment is expected to introduce sweeping changes in the governance structure. It is still being prepared and some reform ideas may not make it to the final version, but the big-ticket items are likely to remain in place. Political parties have room for negotiations, but that room is not too expansive. The irony is that reform is taking place not by the politicians, but despite them.

2. An empowered local government system is now inevitable. PML-N, PPP and PTI have resisted this reform for years for no other reason than their selfish political interests, but that resistance is now at its end. Punjab, probably the worst offender, has already sanctioned twelve billion rupees for holding local government elections. It is however too late. The weak forms of LGs legislated by the four provinces are likely to be replaced with legislation that will change not just the mode of elections, but also the role of LGs armed with significantly greater powers. Second irony: people will gain at the expense of political parties.

3. Additional administrative units are a work in progress, which means the final shape of things may not be…well, final. Do political parties have the option of saying thanks but no thanks? For now, it appears not. Whatever negotiation has to happen, has to happen before the new constitutional amendment is tabled in the parliament. The drafters have learned lessons from the passage of the 26th Amendment as well as from the Punjab canals episode, and would prefer not to have any political stakeholder create a public fuss.

4. The power imbalance between the establishment and political parties has never been wider in recent memory. Not only does this translate into a weaker negotiating position for the politicians, it also means the purveyors of traditional politics are finding themselves on the wrong side of both history and people. At a time of great churn in the region and the world, and when crises are fast converting into opportunities, traditional political leaders remain wedded to bad old ways of bad old times that are now best discarded into the dustbin of failed governance.

5. There is great angst and anxiety inside the Red Zone. Most understand and acknowledge – though not appreciate – their acute dependency on the establishment on all matters of the state. The broad sweep of changes under discussion and consideration will enhance and accentuate this dependency. Those who deal in the currency of power fear its dilution the most. They fear the 28th Amendment will do to them what the 27th Amendment did to the Judiciary. Where's Prozac when you need it most?

6. The day of the 'Specialist' may be arriving. Of the many factors contributing to the atrocious governance of Pakistan in the decades leading up to today, one major one is people tasked with key decisions when they are ill-suited for them. This applies to both the composition of the federal and provincial cabinets, as well as the organisational structure of the bureaucracy. Both are relics of the past. These changes may not be part of the 28th Amendment but the air in the capital is rife with talk of such talk. The bureaucracy has always resisted any dilution of its colonial powers, but like political parties, this institution may also not have the will or capacity to resist the juggernaut pushing for such changes.

7. Changes in the federal cabinet are delayed but not postponed. They are in some ways linked to the need for specialists who can deliver on the demands of governance. Political loyalty as the (almost) sole barometer for a ministerial job is an archaic concept that may require a dishonourable burial. With Pakistan's rising profile and imaginative diplomacy spurring all kinds of opportunities, need is felt for people who can both generate and leverage change. Within the foreign policy setup also, there is a dire need for people (both elected and diplomats) who are not stuck in institutional inertia, and who have the ability to think outside the box. What we do not need are pencil-pushing, file work-loving, passivity-preferring, timid decision-makers who shy away from breaking suffocating bureaucratic norms.

8. The district mayor may become the most attractive position for politicians. If local governments get administrative, financial and political powers as per Article 140-A of the Constitution, and if their dependency on the provinces is significantly reduced, and if executive authority is devolved to the districts under the mayor, and if the mayor is directly elected, and if the size of the provinces is also reduced – if all of this is done, then all provincial and federal ministers would prefer running for mayor. Some are already doing such calculations and making quiet plans.

9. Timelines are not long. Our expanding diplomatic footprint has a domestic dimension too. Pakistan is now readying to leverage emerging opportunities across West Asia and beyond. The trilateral defence pact itself is expected to produce spillover benefits in non-defence sectors also. There is much to be done that cannot be managed with an inefficient system that is slow to respond to both challenges and opportunities. Much of the Big Change is likely to happen before the calendar year ends.

10. One thing is clear: Pakistan can no longer be run as it has been run for seventy-nine years. The state of governance is not just bad, it is a crime against the citizens of this country. Social indicators tell a shameful story of the elite's neglect, apathy and negligence towards those in whose name they continue to enjoy power and privilege. Enough is enough.

Happy birthday, Pakistan.