The great Pakistani budget festival

The federal budget was initially expected on June 5. Then came reports of a delay, with the presentation likely shifting to June 10 or 12 following the postponement of the National Economic Council meeting. Yet that hardly mattered. By then, Pakistan had already produced multiple budgets.

Before the government has presented its fiscal plans to Parliament, tax practitioners have unveiled alternative budgets, business associations have released detailed proposals, chambers of commerce have submitted fiscal wish lists, think tanks have organised budget dialogues and social media economists have offered confident forecasts on what the government should tax, subsidise, spend and borrow.

Pakistan may be one of the few countries where the budget season begins long before the budget itself. This raises an interesting question. How does everyone seem to know what the budget should look like before the institution responsible for preparing it has finished preparing it?

Part of the answer lies in a misunderstanding of how budgets are actually made. Popular perception suggests that budget-making is a frantic exercise conducted in the weeks preceding the finance minister's speech. The reality is considerably less dramatic. The budget process effectively begins almost as soon as the previous budget is approved. Ministries prepare expenditure estimates, development projects are reviewed, revenue projections are revised and consultations continue throughout the year. By June, thousands of officials across multiple institutions have already spent months negotiating competing priorities.

Budget-making is a long administrative process involving spreadsheets, projections, negotiations and compromises. Yet every year a parallel universe emerges alongside this official process where everyone becomes a finance minister.

Tax experts produce comprehensive fiscal blueprints. Business leaders recommend new tax structures. Economists publish growth strategies. Consultants unveil reform packages. LinkedIn transforms into a virtual Ministry of Finance where every second post appears to solve Pakistan's fiscal challenges.

This year, the phenomenon appears more pronounced than ever. What were once pre-budget seminars have evolved into shadow budgets. Many proposals are thoughtful and technically sound. Some reflect years of professional experience. Others are sectoral wish lists disguised as fiscal reform. Together, however, they form a growing shadow-budget industry.

The trend is not necessarily unhealthy. Public participation in fiscal debates should be encouraged. Businesses understand compliance burdens. Tax practitioners understand loopholes. Researchers understand incentives. Governments benefit from informed feedback.

The problem is that proposing a budget and implementing a budget are two very different exercises.

A shadow budget enjoys freedoms unavailable to a real one. It can reduce taxes, increase growth, boost exports, expand development spending and lower deficits simultaneously. It does not have to worry about political feasibility, administrative capacity or unforeseen consequences. Most importantly, it bears no responsibility for implementation.

Actual budgets do.

This distinction is often lost during the excitement of budget season.

The irony is that many of the most animated public debates occur around issues over which governments may have limited room for manoeuvre. Debt servicing obligations are largely predetermined. Fiscal targets are influenced by existing commitments. Energy sector reforms follow established timelines. Revenue goals are linked to broader macroeconomic frameworks. While governments possess choices, those choices are often narrower than televised discussions suggest. This creates another puzzle: how much influence do alternate budgets actually have?

The answer is mixed. Governments occasionally adopt technical recommendations concerning tax administration, compliance procedures, customs duties and sector-specific measures. On broader fiscal questions, however, the room for deviation is considerably smaller. The result is an annual spectacle in which dozens of institutions debate fiscal choices that may already be constrained by realities beyond the reach of conference halls and television studios.

Then comes budget day itself.

For economists, this is perhaps the closest equivalent to Eid. For one evening, economics becomes prime-time entertainment. News channels transform into fiscal command centres. Anchors who spent the previous week discussing politics suddenly become experts on taxation and public finance. The same economists appear across multiple channels explaining why the budget is visionary, disappointing, inflationary, growth-oriented, anti-business or pro-business. Occasionally, all of these descriptions are offered within the same hour.

Social media amplifies the excitement. Within minutes of the budget speech, instant analyses begin circulating. Charts appear. Predictions emerge. Hidden meanings are discovered. This year, many analyses will undoubtedly be assisted by artificial intelligence.

What makes the phenomenon particularly fascinating is that few countries appear to devote the same level of public theatre to budget season. Elsewhere, budgets are undoubtedly important. Markets analyse them. Businesses evaluate their implications. Political parties debate priorities. Yet the annual excitement rarely resembles the carnival atmosphere that emerges in Pakistan.

Here, the budget has evolved into a national event. Rumours circulate before announcements. Leaks precede official statements. Predictions compete with projections. Interpretations emerge before complete documents are available. By the time the finance minister rises to speak, much of the suspense has already been consumed.

And yet the ritual continues every year.

Perhaps because the budget offers something increasingly rare: a moment when citizens, businesses, policymakers and commentators simultaneously engage with questions of national priorities. When discussions extend beyond politics and personalities to growth, taxation, spending and economic direction.

Every June, Pakistan becomes a nation of economists. Millions discuss deficits they have not calculated, taxes they have not paid and budgets they have not read. By July, the excitement fades, the television panels disappear and attention shifts elsewhere. The government proceeds with implementation, economists return to critique, and think tanks begin preparing for next year's pre-budget seminars.

After all, in Pakistan, budget season never truly ends. It merely pauses until everyone is ready to become finance minister once again.