For the love of IMF

What would we ever do without the Fund?

As the government prepares to unleash its federal budget upon the hapless Pakistani taxpayers, the fine men and women of the International Monetary Fund cannot be far from our thoughts. For the rest of the month, all we will hear is: "they made us do it".

That's cute. But that's false.

Truth is, if they did in fact made "us" do it, then thank God for them. Imagine what our governments would do if there was no IMF to restrain them.

Here's a sneak peek: lavish subsidies, reckless expenditures, political freebies, wasteful projects, financial pandering of the elite, salary hikes for favourites, imprudent spending to purchase voter loyalty, and bloating the size of the already massive government.

Or in other words, running the country's finances into the ground.

The sad fact is that we cannot trust our government with our money. Not this one, not the previous one, and not the next one. No one can keep politicians and bureaucrats in check when it comes to reckless spending of taxpayers' money – not the army, not the judiciary, not the media, and certainly not the civil society and its various vocal organisations. If anyone can, it's the IMF. So yes, thank God for them.

Here's what is worse. Instead of learning to live within our means (unless forced by the IMF), our politicians and bureaucrats spin the argument to say they cannot give "relief" to the people because of the IMF. No sirs, you are wrong. You cannot give relief because you do not have the money to do it. You do not have this money because you refuse to reform the system that gives you perks and privileges you have not earned. You have not earned them because you reinforce a system that prioritises elites over the others. That's why powerful people inside and outside the government – yes Big Business, I'm talking about you in particular – get the Budget goodies while the others are slapped with more and more taxes.

It is standard practice. Come June, and fat cats descend on Islamabad looking for access to the Finance Ministry bigwigs and other movers and shakers in government. Their worth is measured by their access. Those who get inside the doors of the Q Block, or other forbidden offices in the twin cities, can get a slice of the pie. That slice comes at the expense of the common Pakistani. These adorable games that official and non-official elites play with each other in cosy environs during the Budget season, these basically carve up the meat for them and leave the bones for the helpless taxpayers. When these taxpayers ask where their share of the meat is, they are told, "The IMF took it."

The IMF did not take it. The fat cats and bigwigs did.

Expect nothing to change. You will see a jugglery of numbers that do not add up, a rehash of grand claims that do not hold up, and trumpeting of targets that will not match up. Whatever little fiscal discipline we will see this week will have less to do with government's prudence and more to do with the golden shackles IMF has clamped on the finance ministry.

So, as you buckle up for the Budget, know this:

The monstrous white elephants known as the State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have together incurred a loss of Rs833 billion. That is Rs8,300 crore. Or, in numbers, Rs83,000,000,000. To put this number in context, it is almost the same amount that will be allocated in this Budget for Public Sector Development Projects (PSDP). This is for all the development projects given to all the parliamentarians for all of Pakistan (it's a waste of money, but that's another column).

For even greater context – as I explained on my show on Express 24/7 this week – the total loss of these SOEs is equivalent to the price of 208,000 Suzuki Altos (Pakistan manufactures about 55,000 Altos per year so that's four years' worth of all Altos). Or if you're an iPhone user, then this figure is equivalent to purchasing 2.8 million iPhones (Pakistan imported 240,000 iPhones in 2025 which means the total loss of SOEs equal twelve years' worth of iPhones brought into Pakistan).

You know why the government seems fine with losing Rs833 billion in one year? Because it chooses not to do what needs to be done. And what needs to be done? Privatise these white elephants, or restructure them, or just close them down. The sum total of the outcome of the effort put into these three solutions is almost negligible. Why? This is the question no one will ask with the urgency that it deserves.

There's more.

Remember austerity? We were told the size of the federal government would be drastically reduced; that ministries would be merged and departments disbanded; that expenses will be slashed and bureaucracy trimmed to a lean shape. Well, guess what?

Yes, exactly.

When you are promised the Big Change, and gifted optical illusions dressed up as reform, you know that, as usual, we are back to business-as-usual. And that is one thing Pakistan can just not afford.

The system as it is constructed in its present form will never change. Will never reform. The governing elite, regardless of which party, which institution or which civil services batch they belong, have too much invested in this rotting system to change it. Tinker it, yes. Reform it, no. Year after year after year we will get the same budget with the same crushing taxes and the same revenue shortfalls and the same hollow promises dressed up in political cliches, and the same poorly-written, jargon-heavy and yawn-inducing budget speech that reinforces the bankruptcy of policy and continuity of mediocrity.

And yet, count your blessings. For if it were not for the IMF and its iron grip on the government, the Budget would have been worse. Much worse.