Iran's moment

From a pariah to an equal partner in a dialogue for peace is a huge transformation for a nation that had once been termed part of the Axis of Evil. This axis included Syria, Iran, Iraq and North Korea; clubbed by George Bush in 2002. That he went ahead and invented reasons to sanitise, nay occupy and reengineer Iraq in 2003 has stood out as a major gaff in American foreign policy. The neo-conservatives of then were as hardheaded as the ultra-Right that leads the US and its policy today. Iraq was neutralised, sort of, and Syria reengineered over time. But Iran stood the test of such impunity and has only gained renewed respect and a certain reverence from its peer nations. Standing up to external coercion has Iran exemplifying the resident capacity of middle-power countries to stand up to global or regional hegemons. The balance of power in the world is shaping anew.

Dial back a bit. It was only in January of this year, and part of February, that the Iranian people came out onto the streets to protest what they felt was a highly regulated, controlled society living on crumbs. The usually prosperous people had suffered long and had been relegated to a meagre and subsisted existence. They were now in the pits, with the riyal heavily devalued to record levels and a quality of life that had nosedived. The regime had to crush the people's rebellion against it with force, leaving behind many a tale of blood and gore. The regime, in all earnestness, committed itself to finding ways to break the shackles of its constraints and to pacify an increasingly agitated sentiment. But then the US and Israel attacked Iran. The people and the society, which was on the verge of fragmentation, coalesced under the threat of an external attack and became one to face off the enemy that it had so viciously despised. They survived and persevered through Iran's most difficult test in the last forty-seven years. Fragmentation isn't a threat anymore – for now. The regime has another chance to deliver peace and prosperity to people. It is for the regime not to lose it.

To break the shackles of constraint and sanctions, the regime was in deep negotiations with the US towards another agreement that would prohibit Iran from taking the nuclear route, satisfying a major US concern. As in the JCPOA-1 of 2015, Iran had agreed to the most bedevilling restrictions on itself to reassure the US of its commitment to desist from the nuclear path. Following the latest war in Iran, now paused, the US is desperate to eke out a JCPOA-plus that was already in its reach in the negotiations in February 2026, that she foolishly dismissed. Sun Tzu would be turning in his grave for someone thwarting a clear victory without firing a shot to choose war over a victory it already had. Iran is back to renegotiating the deal. This time on its terms. Foolishness has no limits when common sense takes leave. Or, when misperceived visions of glory are bought into – Israel is largely considered to have misled Donald Trump into an unnecessary war with Iran.

These gains, strategic in nature with the making of a longer-term foundation for a better future than what Iran has been denied over time, have come at great price. The cumulative loss of both human life and treasure in the war with the US/Israel must find recompense in sagacious redemption with policy choices that have opened before Iran. As the famous one-page Memorandum of Understanding outlining the framework of negotiations is touted, both sides are in a race to test the limits of their respective plays. More so Iran because it has perceptively gained an upper hand from US missteps. Such an opportunity arises rarely and slips away equally fast. Seizing the moment is thus the optimal and critical strategic step that a nation seeking to preserve and add value to its gains must take. Having delayed the acceptance of the terms that can only vary in shades for the pursuit of the optimal, Iran is in the zone of missing out on what is a once-in-a-civilisational opportunity.

Another round of intense hostility will only bring greater loss to Iran, resulting in social instability, cultural and economic degradation, and political intractability difficult to resolve. A change of order then may inevitably follow. Iran should be conscious of how easily things can slide out of hand. How the next order may settle, or not at all, is difficult to comprehend. The flip side is fortuitous. Sanctions will be dispensed, even if incrementally, breaking the chains and setting Iran free to realise its potential. It will be mainstreamed over time in the international system where once it was a pariah. That will help kick in trade, selling oil at a time when most energy strategists think oil may be in its last decades as black gold, considering how fast the energy landscape is changing. It will bring Iran unmatched wealth and prosperity that it had missed for being out of the international system. The world sits on the anvil of another economic revolution with the advent of AI. This is the time to be on board and be seen to be counted, bringing the richness of Iranian intellect to the benefit of the world.

Trump is at the receiving end, literally, when it hopes Iran will let him save face. Trump's repeated regurgitation of the terms for the agreement before signatures is playing 'cool' before his home constituency. His filtered-down final demand is that Iran agree not to pursue nuclear weapons as an ambition. Period. The rest is embellishment. And that includes Hormuz and its clause of opening without tolls. In the meantime, the prolonged closure of Hormuz keeps oil prices elevated, benefiting all the rest selling oil at this opportune time, with Gulf and Iranian oil out of contention. That may please Trump and his cronies. Nuclear agreement, though, is what will make his day.

On it, Iran needs to be prudent and pragmatic. Rubbing the US in the mud can bring immense pleasure to many, not least to the Iranians, but saving the long-term interest of Iran as a state and as people must come foremost. Building on the favour time has brought before it and unshackling itself from unnecessary constraints should be its utmost priority. A break has come. To convert it into good times, Iran will need to be sagacious. For them to last long, Iran will need to exercise immense foresight. Gloating in others' misfortune is the antithesis of securing your own interest and building on those.

Iran has found leverage, legitimacy and credibility. Such alignments are rare in international politics. It is for Iran to make the most of it now and not lose the moment in pursuit of fleeting aspirations.