From roar to whimper: opposition protest fizzles
ISLAMABAD: Only a couple of years ago, even a routine opposition protest call would send shockwaves through government circles. Authorities would often deploy containers, impose restrictions and seal roads long before demonstrators arrived, creating an atmosphere that itself projected the opposition's strength.
However, Friday's protest call by opposition parties, including the grand alliance featuring the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (F) and Jamaat-e-Islami, unfolded very differently.
Unlike previous occasions, there were no widespread preventive measures, extraordinary restrictions or visible signs of official alarm. By the end of the day, the opposition's protest campaign had largely fizzled out without any major mobilisation.
Political analysts say the decline in opposition street power has been gradual but became more pronounced after the November 26, 2024, protest in Islamabad, when PTI demonstrators faced a forceful state response, arrests and dispersal operations.
Since then, analysts believe the party's ability to mobilise supporters has been weakened by legal pressure, organisational disruption and growing fear among its workers and supporters.
Attempts over the following months to revive agitational politics, including leadership reshuffles within the party's provincial structure, have so far failed to restore the momentum PTI once enjoyed. Analysts argue that the opposition strategy now appears fragmented and inconsistent.
Political analyst Raza Rumi said the weak mobilisation stemmed from multiple factors rather than a single cause. According to him, repeated protest cycles, fear generated by arrests, surveillance and legal crackdowns over the past two years, along with organisational strain within opposition ranks, have collectively undermined street mobilisation.
He said many supporters may still sympathise with the opposition's narrative but remain reluctant to participate physically due to the political and legal costs involved.
"Street politics in Pakistan historically depends not only on public anger but also on organisational coherence, local networks and confidence that mobilisation can produce tangible political outcomes," he said.
Referring specifically to PTI, Rumi noted that the party had once demonstrated an unmatched ability to mobilise crowds rapidly, often prompting pre-emptive state action even before protests materialised.
However, he said the crackdown on PTI's leadership, workers and organisational structure after May 2023 had significantly reduced its ability to organise open mobilisation on the scale previously witnessed.
"At the same time, the state may believe that PTI's capacity for disruptive street power has diminished, reducing the urgency for aggressive preventive measures," he said.
He added that the party's main challenge now was whether it could transform its electoral and digital support into a sustainable on-ground political structure under prevailing conditions.
Senior political analyst Hassan Askari Rizvi said the outcome was unsurprising. He remarked, "It is not surprising that people are not coming out," pointing to two key reasons: economic pressure and fear of the state.
According to Rizvi, worsening financial hardship has made it difficult for ordinary citizens, especially daily wage earners, to participate in protests because "if they do not work, they cannot earn".
He further observed that "the state has become very strict," explaining that while bail in political cases previously came within days, "it takes months" now, creating fear among people about the consequences for themselves and their families.
According to him, "there is a sense of insecurity, disappointment and state fear, which is making it difficult for people to come out".
Rizvi also noted that earlier arrests generally fell under ordinary legal provisions where bail was relatively easier, whereas more stringent laws are now increasingly being invoked, making "remand easier and bail difficult," something people are acutely aware of before joining protests.
Despite weak street mobilisation, however, he maintained that opposition support could still translate electorally, adding that "people will come out in elections."
Separately, Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, president of the Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency, said that "traditionally, no street agitation has succeeded in Pakistan unless intelligence agencies back such agitation covertly".
He also argued that "any such agitation must be led by a credible and trusted leadership which is currently not available".
Mehboob maintained that the government had performed relatively well in managing economic pressures, saying that although inflation continues to hurt citizens, it is often explained to the public as the result of "international factors".
He further claimed that "popular support for the federal government and armed forces has increased" following recent developments, including what he described as a "decisive victory over India" and Pakistan's diplomatic efforts in facilitating dialogue between Iran and the United States, which he said, "gave people a sense of positivity".
He added that "decisive and timely use of force against PTI protesters, arrests and long periods behind bars are some of the factors which work against agitation".
In his assessment, opposition warnings and statements by leaders such as Mahmood Khan Achakzai were "just political acts to stay relevant and to demonstrate political activity".