Marka-e-Haq - implications and insights

Following an attack that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam on 22 April 2025, India on the night of 6 May 2025 launched unprovoked strikes against civilian infrastructure at six locations across Pakistan, naming it Operation Sindoor. It was a deeply reckless act by a nuclear armed state against another nuclear neighbour resulting in the martyrdom of 36 innocent Pakistanis, including women and children. India's actions were a clear violation of Pakistan's sovereignty, international law and the UN Charter. Pakistan responded under UN Charter Article 51 in a calibrated manner with precision and lethality. On 7 May, PAF downed four Rafales, one SU-30, one MiG-29, one Mirage 2000 and one UAV. This was followed by Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos on 10 May 2025 in which 26 high-value targets were struck across Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir and Mainland India. Indian S-400 missile systems were destroyed, exposing critical gaps in their air defences. India having suffered grievous military and economic losses estimated at over $84 billion, ultimately sought US mediation to end the conflict in an embarrassing retreat from its politico-military ambitions.

This conflict saw several notable firsts. For instance, it marked the first time that India violated the sanctity of International Border while accusing Pakistan of an act of terrorism across the Line of Control. It was also the first time India used cruise missiles on Pakistan, both the BrahMos cruise missiles (co-developed with Russia) as well as the European SCALP-EG (Storm Shadow). More significantly, it was the first time in the history of air warfare that a classic multidomain, network centric excellence was displayed by PAF with hundred percent success and no losses.

It was also the first time Pakistan used conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles, Fatah-I and Fatah-II on targets in India. It was the first time drone warfare was launched in the India-Pakistan rivalry, and it was the first time India did not get diplomatic or moral global support (other than probably from Israel) against Pakistan for the alleged act of terrorism.

One year on, we can conclude from an assessment of Marka-e-Haq that Pakistan has reinforced its position as a consequential state which is strong, responsible and dignified in resolve and capacity to safeguard its territorial integrity. Pakistan has demonstrated to the world that the true strength of a country lies also in the competence, training and abilities of its armed forces to correctly identify threats, address vulnerabilities and efficiently use available resources. A decisive factor in this war was also the Pakistani nation's resilience, unity and vigour in support of its armed forces.

India's so-called 'New Normal' only encountered Pakistan's resolve to respond more forcefully, resulting in outcomes that ultimately disadvantaged its own self. India's attempt to suspend the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) and weaponise water stands in violation of international law and sets a troubling precedent. The Permanent Court of Arbitration's recent ruling, rejecting India's unilateral suspension of the treaty, marks a notable diplomatic victory for Pakistan. Another significant implication is that despite India's repeated attempts to move the Kashmir issue out of global focus, this confrontation brought it back into the international spotlight as a potential nuclear flashpoint.

Furthermore, due to the army's steadfast professionalism, Pakistan's geopolitical image has greatly improved both regionally and globally over the past year. However, a dangerous consequence of this conflict is that after facing conventional humiliation, India has intensified its asymmetric campaign against Pakistan through increased support and finances to Fitna al-Khawarij and Fitna al-Hindustan operating through proxy channels associated with Afghan Taliban.

The question now is what should we expect? And how must we prepare for the challenges ahead? In my view, the foremost priority is addressing our most critical vulnerability: the feebleness of our economy. In broader terms, we need to recover from long standing weaknesses in productivity, governance, energy, taxation, human capital and external dependence. The central challenge is not merely scarcity of resources but insufficient productivity, continuity and institutional efficiency. Durable strength of a country truly emerges from economic resilience, technological capability, social cohesion and competent governance.

A lot is being suggested by renowned economists to the power corridors in this regard. The problem is not a dearth of solutions but of resolve to change for good. A realistic and prudent approach with consistency and competency is needed to steer Pakistan out of this quagmire. Pakistan's true potential lies in its youth - nearly two-thirds of its population. Greater national attention must therefore be directed towards harnessing this vital reservoir of human capital and transforming it into a source of economic strength, innovation, adaptation and resilience.

At a national level, we need to cultivate a commitment to Pakistan that is neither blind nor conditional. We must sensibly identify our systemic shortcomings and invest in strengthening our National Power Potential through reforms, responsibility and steady effort. In politics we need to mitigate hatred and cultivate acceptability to acknowledge positive criticism. We must avoid dogmas in our perceptions about each other's comportments, attitude and character, and be pragmatic, focusing on outcomes rather than declarations. Leaving room to adjust when facts change, recognising gradation instead of extremes, allowing competing truths to coexist.

The prevailing negative peace with India is likely to persist so long as irrationality continues to shape Indian state policy as a principal instrument. We need to devise ways not only to live with this reality but also to mitigate and recover from the disadvantages that accompany. India stands embarrassed, discredited and increasingly isolated today which may drive it towards another misadventure in an attempt to compensate for its bruised prestige. Our armed forces are fully prepared to confront any eventuality. However, meeting the challenges ahead will require a broader national resolve and for that, we as a nation must awaken ourselves to the gravity of the moment. Our leadership must evolve to enable the country to maximise the opportunities and advantages at hand while minimising the risks and prospects of war.