4% of GDP: the promise Pakistan still refuses to meet

Every budget season in Pakistan arrives with promises of reform, with education once again presented as a state priority. Yet beyond the slogans lies a harsher reality: Pakistan continues to spend among the lowest proportions of GDP on education in South Asia despite facing one of the world's largest out-of-school populations. UNESCO recommends allocating at least 4-6% of GDP to education, but Pakistan's public spending remains between 0.8 and 2%, according to UNICEF and the Pakistan Economic Survey.

The consequences of this chronic underinvestment are borne most heavily by girls. More than 25 million Pakistani children remain out of school, most of them girls. This not only reflects an education crisis, but a national failure to treat girls' education as a genuine fiscal priority.

This is why Pakistan's education debate can no longer revolve around symbolic budget increases alone. The real issue is whether budgets are gender-responsive, whether they directly address the barriers preventing girls from entering and remaining in school.

Sindh's FY2025-26 education allocation of over Rs523 billion has been presented as a major achievement. Yet budgets should be judged not by headlines, but by outcomes: how many girls return to classrooms, how many schools are rebuilt, how many female teachers are recruited, and how many students remain in school beyond primary level.

According to the Pakistan Institute of Education's Public Financing in Education 2025-26 report, Sindh's Gross Enrolment Ratio stands at 65% at primary level but falls to 47% at middle school and 20% at secondary and higher secondary levels. These are among the weakest retention rates in the country. For girls in rural districts, the decline is even steeper due to poverty, child marriage, insecurity and the absence of basic facilities.

The 2022 floods further exposed the fragility of Pakistan's education system. Thousands of schools in Sindh were damaged, and nearly 46% of affected students were girls. Although reconstruction plans were announced, recovery has remained uneven. Many flood-affected girls never returned to classrooms because temporary learning centres lacked privacy, sanitation and safe transportation. In several districts, girls' schools were rebuilt more slowly than boys' schools, reinforcing existing inequalities.

The issue is not only infrastructure. It is access.

For many girls in rural Sindh, reaching school has itself become a barrier to education. UNICEF identifies distance, unsafe transport and security concerns as major causes of female dropout rates, especially after primary school. Many families hesitate to send adolescent girls to distant schools without secure transport or female staff, while schools often still lack boundary walls, toilets and clean drinking water.

This is where Pakistan can learn from neighbouring countries.

According to ADB, Bangladesh expanded girls' education through the Female Secondary School Stipend Programme, which provided financial incentives for families to keep girls in school and delay early marriage. ADB-supported studies found the programme significantly increased girls' secondary school completion, making Bangladesh a regional example of how targeted investment can drive long-term social change.

India, meanwhile, has steadily moved closer to allocating around 4% of GDP to education, while several state governments have introduced direct financial assistance schemes specifically for girls' schooling and retention.

Pakistan cannot continue ignoring these lessons while expecting different outcomes.

A gender-responsive education budget means allocating dedicated funds for girls' schools, transport facilities, female teachers, scholarships, menstrual hygiene infrastructure and flood-resilient classrooms.

A country with one of the world's largest populations of out-of-school girls cannot continue treating education as a secondary concern. Pakistan must finally meet the global benchmark of allocating at least 4% of GDP to education, with that investment directly prioritising girls. Without gender-responsive financing, every budget speech promising reform will remain exactly what millions of girls across Sindh have already learned not to trust: a promise that never reaches the classroom door.