Hardening positions

Tehran's continued defiance is adding to Washington's frustration bordering on retribution. In a latest move, the Islamic republic has constituted a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to assert sovereignty over the strategic water channel that accounts for 21% of global oil supplies. As expected, the superpower has rejected the move, responding with imposition of financial penalties on global shipping companies paying the transit toll, besides maintaining a strict naval blockade of the water channel targeting all maritime traffic entering or exiting Iranian ports. All that only suggests a widening stand-off between the two warring sides, threatening resumption of hostilities which mercifully stand paused under a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire since April 8.

And so, there is every danger of the US – desperately in need of an a respectable exit from the Persian Gulf trap – triggering the next phase of the showdown with Iran in pursuit of earning some political points in time for the upcoming mid-term elections to the Congress. Thus, the emerging scenario is that a renewed US bombardment of Iran - causing casualties and damages - would provide President Donald Trump with a face-saving exit. This would allow his administration to claim a decisive military victory, and move on to pivot to diplomacy without appearing to yield under pressure. As for the Hormuz blockade, the US president could easily step back and leave the Gulf to deal with its own mess.

The hardening of positions and the threat of renewed war have accelerated diplomatic efforts. While the foreign ministers of Turkiye and Qatar held a meeting in Doha to discuss the next steps on diplomatic front, Pakistan's continues to occupy the centre stage on mediation. Just yesterday, the Iranian foreign ministry confirmed conveying a new set of proposals to end the war to the Americans through Pakistan. Both sides had better be warned: the time for moving goalposts is over.