Another constitutional package?
It was in September 2024 when speculation, triggered by a series of leaks, began circulating about the federal government planning the 26th Constitutional Amendment. As is often the case, the government publicly dismissed those reports as mere conjecture, while official circles firmly denied that any such move was under consideration.
Yet, just a few weeks later, not only was the plan publicly acknowledged, but the amendment was also swiftly passed by parliament.
Now, once again, similar murmurs are doing the rounds suggesting that the federal government is contemplating another constitutional amendment.
And, as with the 26th and later the 27th amendments, the pattern appears familiar: official denials on the surface, even as political whispers continue to build beneath it.
After the passage of the 26th and 27th Constitutional Amendments, discussion over another possible round of constitutional changes has once again entered Pakistan's political discourse, with speculation around a 28th constitutional amendment circulating in policy and political circles despite official denials that any such process is underway.
At the core of the renewed discussion lies Pakistan's persistent fiscal imbalance between the federation and provinces, most visibly reflected in the long-standing debate over the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award.
As federal expenditures continue to rise, particularly on debt servicing and defence, questions around fiscal space and revenue distribution have re-emerged as structural pressures rather than isolated policy debates.
Analysts note that this recurring debate is less about any imminent constitutional move and more about the constraints embedded in the fiscal federal structure, where constitutionally protected provincial shares coexist with a financially stretched federal government.
Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar has clarified that there are "no indications" of a draft 28th amendment, while noting that any future constitutional initiative would require consultation with coalition partners.
His remarks also point to ongoing policy discussions around population management, local government strengthening, and long-debated proposals for new provinces such as Hazara and Saraiki regions.
In contrast, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has stated that the Pakistan Peoples Party has not been consulted on any such proposal, reiterating that constitutional amendments cannot proceed without PPP's agreement.
On the other hand, Prime Minister's aide Rana Sanaullah has acknowledged that discussions with the PPP are taking place within policy circles on fiscal constraints and burden-sharing between the federation and provinces, driven by rising expenditures on debt servicing and defence.
His remarks suggest that while no formal process exists, structural economic pressures continue to shape policy conversations.
Meanwhile, opposition voices, including PTI, have called for clarity from the government regarding the nature and scope of any proposed constitutional changes.
PTI information secretary Sheikh Waqas Akram, speaking to The Express Tribune, said the party's position reflects its character as a national party. He said PTI believes in maintaining a balance in resource distribution and that reviewing the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award is essential. He added that the 7th NFC Award, constituted after the 18th Constitutional Amendment, has not been properly reviewed after its term expired and has instead been extended annually through presidential ordinances.
Beyond political statements, any constitutional amendment in Pakistan is ultimately constrained by parliamentary arithmetic, requiring a two-thirds majority in both Houses of Parliament.
In the National Assembly, this means at least 224 votes, while the Senate requires 64 votes. In the current parliamentary configuration, no single party holds this strength independently, making coalition alignment essential for any constitutional change. Even a combined position of major coalition partners would still require support from smaller parties and independents to meet the constitutional threshold.
Analyst Mazhar Abbas does not rule out the possibility of a government "surprise package", noting that while the discussion remains speculative, political bargaining cannot be excluded. He suggests that while a full rollback of the 18th Amendment is unlikely, space for negotiated adjustments may still exist, even if the 28th Amendment remains largely speculative at this stage.
Pildat Chairman Ahmed Bilal Mehboob noted that several elements of the PML-N legislative agenda remain pending and could resurface in any future constitutional package, particularly those related to local government strengthening and fiscal arrangements.
He added that proposals linked to NFC adjustments and new provinces remain politically sensitive and would require broad consensus, especially from PPP, which has historically opposed such changes.
He further observed that the constitutional process of creating new provinces is highly complex, requiring two-thirds support in the relevant provincial assemblies, making such initiatives difficult to materialise in the near term.